The influence of ENSO and PDO on tropical Andean glaciers and their impact on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

Recent decades, particularly since the late 1970s, have witnessed a rapid retreat of glaciers in the tropical Andes. We compiled the changes in glacier surfaces along the eastern cordilleras of the tropical Andes of Peru and Bolivia since the early 1980s from the literature. Water levels from two Brazilian river basins in the Amazon basin (one (Madeira River) glacially fed by meltwater from the Andes and the other (Envira River) non‐glacially fed), were analysed for a 30‐year period between 1985?2014. Furthermore, precipitation data near these two basins were also analysed in order to understand the differential contributions of glacier melting and rainfall. Variations in the water levels from the glacially fed Madeira River showed that some years were associated with higher water levels even when the precipitation remained low during the corresponding season (May‐October). This observation was common when El Niño events occurred during the positive phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Water levels in glacier‐fed Madeira River were slightly higher during the periods where El Niño and warm PDO co‐occurred. On the other hand, water levels in the Envira River were precipitation dependent; water levels were higher when the rainfall was high.     

A contribution to the reconstruction of Miocene seepage from authigenic carbonates of the northern Apennines (Italy)

Authigenic carbonates from outcrops of the northern Apennines consist of small and irregular lenses and exhibit numerous features indicative of cold-seep settings. Detailed petrographic, mineralogical and geochemical studies from two Miocene deposits are presented. The first carbonate outcrop, named Fosso Riconi, is located in the foredeep basin of the Apenninic chain, whereas the second deposit represents a satellite basin called Sarsetta. The stable isotope data from specific carbonate minerals show a wide range of values well known from other palaeoseeps of the Apennine Mountains. The majority of seep carbonates are formed by low-Mg calcite and ankerite. Those minerals have δ¹³C values between ?7 and ?23‰ V-PDB, suggesting variable amounts of carbonate derived from oxidized methane, seawater (dissolved inorganic carbon) and sedimentary organic matter. Dolomite samples have the lowest δ¹³C values (?30.8 to ?39.0‰ V-PDB), indicating methane as the main carbon source. The findings suggest an evolutionary formation of the seeps and development of authigenic carbonates influenced by the activity of chemosynthetic organisms, of which large lucinid clams are preserved. Bioirrigation by the clams controlled the sediment–water exchange, and is here considered as an explanation for the anomalous Mg content of the calcite. We hypothesize that the seep carbonates were formed during periods of active methane-rich seepage, whereas during periods of slow seepage carbonate formation was reduced. Despite different geological settings, the two examined deposits of Sarsetta and Fosso Riconi show similar features, suggesting that a common pattern of fluid circulation played a major role in carbonate formation at both seep sites.     

Size fractionation and optical properties of colloids in an organic-rich estuary (Thurso, UK)

The optical characteristics of a black water river estuary from the north coast of Scotland were examined in the filtered (0.4 µm), ultrafiltered (5 kDa) and colloid-enriched fractions of estuarine samples. The samples were collected over the full salinity range during a period when the pH was relatively constant (8.2–8.5) throughout the estuary, allowing the influence of salinity on estuarine colloidal processes to be distinguished. The properties examined in the bulk, the low molecular weight (LMW) and the colloidal fraction (HMW) were UV–visible absorption, 3-D fluorescence excitation–emission matrix (EEM) spectrum, inorganic and organic carbon, mean size (by dynamic light scattering), and size distribution by flow field-flow fractionation analysis (FlFFF). The combined results of these analyses support the view that river-borne, humic-rich colloids underwent two types of transformation upon mixing with the seawater end member. The first one resulted in an apparent increase in the abundance of LMW constituents and may be explained by coiling of the individual humic macromolecules. The second one resulted in an increase in the mean size measured in both the lower and higher colloidal size ranges, and may be explained by aggregation of colloids to form entities that were still mostly colloidal i.e., smaller than 0.4 µm. The LMW contribution to the bulk optical properties increased with increasing salinity. Very similar findings were obtained from simulated mixing experiments using a Nordic Reference NOM extract as a source of freshwater colloids. This indicates that changes in the molecular architecture and molar mass of river-borne colloids—not changes in their chemical nature—were responsible for the observed variations in the spectral characteristics of CDOM in this estuary.     

An earthquake scenario for the microzonation of Sofia and the vulnerability of structures designed by use of the Eurocodes

The study of the site effects and the microzonation of a part of the metropolitan Sofia, based on the modelling of seismic ground motion along three cross-sections are performed. Realistic synthetic strong motion waveforms are computed for scenario earthquakes (M=7) applying a hybrid modelling method, based on the modal summation technique and finite differences scheme. The synthesized ground motion time histories are source and site specific. The site amplification is determined in terms of response spectra ratio (RSR). A suite of time histories and quantities of earthquake engineering interest are provided. The results of this study constitute a “database” that describes the ground shaking of the urban area. A case study of experiment-based assessment of vulnerability of a cast-in-situ single storey, industrial, reinforced concrete frame, designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8 is presented. The main characteristics of damage index and storey drift are discussed for the purposes of microzonation.     

Imposex levels and concentrations of organotin compounds (TBT and its metabolites) in Nassarius nitidus from the Lagoon of Venice

Specimens of Nassarius nitidus were collected in seven stations of the Venice Lagoon to assess the levels of tributyltin (TBT) and its metabolites monobutyltin and dibutyltin in the tissues and monitor their effect on organisms, in particular the phenomenon of imposex (superimposition of male sexual characteristics on females). The following values of population indices were found: vas deferens sequence: 1.2 ± 0.7–4.0 ± 0.5; relative penis length: 6–47%. The least impacted station was situated in the northern part of the Lagoon, where females without imposex were found and Butyltin (BuTs) concentrations in the organisms (average sum of BuTs = 43 ± 14 ng Sn g⁻¹ w.) were significantly lower than in the other stations (range of average sum of BuTs: 101 ± 22–217 ± 27 ng Sn g⁻¹ d.w.). Population indices were found to be related to the TBT content in the tissues. In particular VDSI had a significant logarithmic correlation: r = 0.95, n = 8, p < 0.05.     

Tidal flat macrofaunal communities and their associated environments in estuaries of southern California and northern Baja California, Mexico

Several tidal flats in both Estero de Punta Banda and Bahia de San Quintín, Baja California, and one in Mission Bay, southern California, were sampled for macrofaunal properties (taxonomic composition, density, species richness, and functional groups for animals ≥0.3 mm) and associated environmental variables (sediment properties, salinity, plant belowground biomass, and cover ofZostera marina) in order to establish a benchmark data set for these areas. The grouping of macrofauna into higher taxonomic or functional groups for these comparisons reduced variability and revealed stronger relationships. Each estuary had a fairly distinct macrofaunal assemblage, with that of Estero de Punta Banda being different from Bahia de San Quintín and Mission Bay primarily due to dominance by a capitellid polychaete, lower proportions of surface deposit feeders, and higher proportions of fauna with a planktonic stage. The flats in Mission Bay and Bahia de San Quintín were dominated by peracarid crustaceans, oligochaetes and polychaetes and had higher proportions of direct developers and macrofauna with mobile adult stages than did Estero de Punta Banda. There was an overlap of the environmental characteristics among estuaries, with more variability of sediment and vegetation properties within than among estuaries. Within Bahia de San Quintín, there was an oceanic to back-bay distribution gradient of macrofauna that was similar to that found in estuaries in wetter climates, despite the lack of a salinity gradient in San Quintín. A decoupling of the benthos and the assumed anthropogenic stresses was observed with the degraded site, Mission Bay, being most similar to the relatively pristine Bahia de San Quintín. Selection of reference sites and sampling variables should be made cautiously because effects of disturbance factors on the benthos may be site-dependent, scale-dependent, or negligible.     

Assessment of river flow with significant lateral inflow through reverse routing modeling

The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NS_q) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NS_q for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events.     

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

AffectRoute – considering people’s affective responses to environments for enhancing route-planning services

Humans perceive and evaluate environments affectively. Some places are experienced as unsafe, while some others as attractive and interesting. These affective responses to environments influence people’s daily behavior and decision-making in space, e.g., choosing which route to take, or which place to visit. In this article, we report on a methodology of using people’s affective responses to environments for enhancing computer-based route planning. More specifically, we explore a crowdsourcing approach to model and collect people’s affective responses to environments; an Affect-Space-Model and a mobile application are developed to facilitate this crowdsourcing approach; a routing algorithm (named AffectRoute) is then proposed to aggregate and integrate the collected data for automatic route planning. Evaluation with human participants shows that the routes generated by considering people’s affective responses to environments are significantly preferred over the conventional shortest ones, which are employed in car navigation systems and many online route planners. In conclusion, considering people’s affective responses to environments contributes to the improvement of automatic route planning. The proposed method can be integrated into existing route-planning services (e.g., location-based services) to provide users with more satisfying routing results.