贵州省降雨型滑坡预警预报模型2020年应用检验分析

基于概率拟合曲线的贵州省降雨型滑坡预警预报模型,利用降水预报数据和实况数据对2020年强降水背景下的27次降雨型滑坡事件进行预警预报,从两个方面检验了该模型的业务实用性。结果表明：利用降水预报数据开展降雨型滑坡预警预报,提前3 d和提前1 d的效果优于提前2 d,其准确率均为63%,具有一定的业务实用性;利用降水实况数据开展降雨型滑坡预警预报,滑坡实际发生的位置与模型预警预报中可能性较大以上的区域吻合度较高,进一步验证该模型具有一定的准确性和实用性;能否准确把握降水强度和落区是影响降雨型滑坡预警预报准确率的关键因素。     

铜陵天马山硫金矿床矽卡岩矿物学特征及矿石硫同位素地球化学研究

天马山硫金矿是铜陵矿集区典型的层控热液叠加改造型矿床,层状矿体中发育大量的矽卡岩矿物。为查明该矿床中矽卡岩矿物的类型及形成环境,探讨矽卡岩与硫、金成矿之间的关系,对主要的矽卡岩矿物开展了矿物学及矿物化学研究,并对矿石进行了硫同位素地球化学研究。研究表明:矿区内的矽卡岩矿物以石榴子石和辉石为主,其中石榴子石以钙铁榴石为主,属于钙铁榴石-钙铝榴石固熔体系列(Gro0~18.73And80.54~99.00Spe+Pyr+Alm0.54~1.47);辉石以透辉石为主,其次为钙铁辉石,属于透辉石-钙铁辉石系列(Di62.35~97.65Hd1.89~36.27Jo0.31~1.55)。天马山硫金矿的矿物组合(钙铁辉石+透辉石)属于氧化型矽卡岩,表明矽卡岩形成于相对高温和高氧逸度的条件。石榴子石和辉石端元组分特征及辉石Mn/Fe值(0.02~0.07)具有典型的矽卡岩型铜、金矿床特征。矿石硫同位素具有岩浆源的特征,与区内燕山期岩浆-成矿作用形成的矿石一致,而明显区别于喷流-沉积作用形成的矿石,显示成矿作用与燕山期岩浆活动具有密切的成因联系。燕山期中酸性岩浆交代碳酸盐岩围岩形成大量矽卡岩,矽卡岩矿物的形成增加了岩石的孔隙度和渗透率,为晚期硫、金矿床的形成提供了有利条件。     

Watershed delineation using hydrographic features and a DEM in plain river network region

Watershed delineation is a required step when conducting any spatially distributed hydrological modelling. Automated approaches are often proposed to delineate a watershed based on a river network extracted from the digital elevation model (DEM) using the deterministic eight‐neighbour (D8) method. However, a realistic river network cannot be derived from conventional DEM processing methods for a large flat area with a complex network of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and polders, referred to as a plain river network region (PRNR). In this study, a new approach, which uses both hydrographic features and DEM, has been developed to address the problems of watershed delineation in PRNR. It extracts the river nodes and determines the flow directions of the river network based on a vector‐based hydrographic feature data model. The river network, lakes, reservoirs, and polders are then used to modify the flow directions of grid cells determined by D8 approach. The watershed is eventually delineated into four types of catchments including lakes, reservoirs, polders, and overland catchments based on the flow direction matrix and the location of river nodes. Multiple flow directions of grid cells are represented using a multi‐direction encoding method, and multiple outflows of catchments are also reflected in the topology of catchments. The proposed approach is applied to the western Taihu watershed in China. Comparisons between the results obtained from the D8 approach, the ‘stream burning’ approach, and those from the proposed approach clearly demonstrate an improvement of the new approach over the conventional approaches. This approach will benefit the development of distributed hydrological models in PRNR for the consideration of different types and multiple inlets and outlets of catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于同步风场的机载SAR海浪参数反演方法

针对机载合成孔径雷达(SAR)对海探测特点,采用多入射角法从SAR数据本身得到与海浪参数反演区域时空匹配的同步海面风速和风向,并结合线性变换关系,计算得到海浪初猜谱对应的仿真SAR图像谱,将仿真SAR图像谱和观测SAR图像谱输入代价函数中进行迭代运算,通过非线性方程的解算得到最适海浪谱;采用交叉谱法去除海浪传播180°方向模糊,最终得到海浪参数。论文提出的基于同步风场的机载SAR海浪参数反演方法,充分利用了机载SAR海洋环境探测的优势,解决了传统SAR海浪参数反演中初猜谱构造依赖外部风场的问题,机载同步飞行试验的海浪参数反演结果与浮标观测值的有效波高、波向的均方根误差分别为0.23 m和13.23°,验证了该方法的有效性,可为机载SAR海浪参数反演业务化提供支持。     

柴达木盆地鱼卡地区中侏罗统石门沟组砂岩碎屑组分特征及其物源构造环境分析

利用砂岩碎屑骨架成分统计和碎屑颗粒结构特征分析,研究柴达木盆地北缘鱼卡地区中侏罗统石门沟组碎屑岩的源岩类型及其构造环境。石门沟组砂岩成分成熟度中等、结构成熟度较低,具有近源物源的特点。砂岩碎屑骨架成分统计结果表明石门沟组的物源区构造背景属于再旋回造山带。结合柴达木盆地北缘中侏罗统古地理特征,确认鱼卡地区石门沟组物源区为祁连山造山带。砂岩碎屑组分可能来自于南祁连山上石炭世宗务隆山群火山岩和达肯达坂山群变质岩。     

Coupling a 1D-local inertia 2D hydraulic model for flood dispatching simulation in a floodplain under joint control of multiple gates

Natural Hazards - A 2D local inertial equations model coupled with a 1D hydraulic model was established to simulate flood dispatching in river and flood detention areas. A simplified first-order...     

Dissolution characteristics of deep?buried dolostone in the Member 5 of Ordovician Majiagou Formation in southern Ordos Basin

The different types of deep-buried dissolution process in the Member 5 of Ordovician Majiagou Formation in the southern Ordos Basin and its influence on the reservoir properties are studied in this paper. It shows that three types of mechanisms include organic acid fluid, hydrothermal fluid and TSR are identified through studies of core observation, thin section analysis, inclusion temperature, trace elements and rare earth elements. It is found that the dissolution of organic acid fluid causes the stratified dissolution pores, film-like asphaltene and ring-like asphaltene, while hydrothermal fluid causes the non-selective dissolution pores without petrofabric, veins of pyrites, massive pyrites and the association of hypothermal minerals. Four occurrence models of dissolution include, (1) the deep-buried dissolution of low-temperature hydrothermal fluid occurs in Zhiluo Period of Middle Jurassic; (2) the deep-buried dissolution of organic acid fluid started from the late Middle Jurassic followed by the first hydrocarbon injection; (3) the deep-buried dissolution of middle-high temperature hydrothermal fluid occurred in the Dongsheng Period of Early Cretaceous; (4) TSR occurred at the end of Early Cretaceous with the second larger hydrocarbon injection. Both organic acid fluid and hydrothermal fluid can improve the porosity and permeability of reservoir, but the hydrothermal fluid is more effective than that of organic acid fluid.     

基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。     

《巴黎协定》实施细则适应议题焦点解析及后续中国应对措施

适应是《联合国气候变化框架公约》及其《巴黎协定》下的重要谈判内容。2018年12月举行的第24次缔约方大会（COP24）就适应议题后续实施方案达成了共识,为全球气候治理带来新的机遇和挑战。中国在未来全球气候治理中,如何借助新成果推动国内适应工作稳步发展,积极发挥中国作用,是新形势下亟需考虑的重要问题。基于此,本文梳理了适应议题的焦点问题、各集团和缔约方的立场观点,展望了2019—2025年适应相关议题主要工作安排,并对此提出了中国未来适应领域完成相关工作需要考虑的应对措施建议,包括：(1)深入分析国际信息报告体系与国内信息的联系,梳理国内适应工作亮点,为构建高质量报告奠定基础;(2)构建跨部门跨地区协作机制,加强信息搜集与完善,有效提高数据和信息统计功能;(3)强化气候变化适应技术、规范、标准等科学研究的作用,为制定政策规定时纳入相应技术要求、提高政策规定等需求提供科学性和可操作性的服务。     

The Extra-Area Effect in 71 Cloud Seeding Operations during Winters of 2008–14 over Jiangxi Province,East China

Effects of weather modification operations on precipitation in target areas have been widely reported, but little is specifically known about the downwind (extra-area) effects in China. We estimated the extra-area effect of an operational winter (November-February) aircraft cloud-seeding project in northern Jiangxi Province in eastern China by using a revised historical target/control regression analysis method based on the precipitation data in winter. The results showed that the overall seasonal average rainfall at the downwind stations increased by 21.67%(p=0.0013). This enhancement effect was detected as far as 120 km away from the target area. Physical testing was used to compare the cloud characteristics before and after seeding on 29 November 2014. A posteriori analysis with respect to the characteristics of cloud units derived from operational weather radar data in Jiangxi was performed by tracking cloud units. Radar features in the target unit were enhanced relative to the control unit for more than two hours after the operational cloud seeding, which is indicative of the extra-area seeding effect. The findings could be used to help relieve water shortages in China.