高温-高含冰量冻土原位旁压蠕变试验

为了研究高温-高含冰量冻土的蠕变特性,在青藏高原多年冻土区开展了旁压蠕变试验。试验结果表明：旁压蠕变曲线可以借鉴Ladanyi的工程蠕变理论来表示;每个试验中瞬时弹性应变在各级压力下的总应变中所占比例的平均值为3%～7%,冻土温度轻微的改变都会引起剪切模量的大幅变化;冻土的初始蠕变应变可以采用幂函数形式来计算,其强化系数k=1.87,应变系数与负温绝对值之间呈线性正相关关系。稳定蠕变阶段的应变速率可以用Glen蠕变模型来表示,其中参数n随体积含冰量的增加而线性增加;若体积含冰量外推至100%（纯冰）时,n=3.85,这与前人通过室内试验得出的结果有些差异。温度较低时,蠕变速率较小;当温度趋近于0 ℃时,蠕变速率迅速增大。     

AMDAR观测资料分析及质量控制

随着中国气象局与民航总局AMDAR(Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay)合作项目的开展,气象部门获得的AMDAR观测资料逐渐增加.为获取高质量的AMDAR观测资料和充分合理地使用这些观测资料,必须对AMDAR观测资料时空分布、飞行状态信息、观测资料质量等信息进行充分调研分析,并开发设计出具有实际运用价值和能力的质量控制(QC)技术,使AMDAR观测资料在数值预报业务模式系统中发挥更大作用.AMDAR QC方案在参考国际先进AMDAR QC方案的基础上,根据AMDAR资料的特点和数值天气预报模式对AMDAR资料应用的要求而设计,其目的是解决AMDAR观测资料在数值预报中应用的质量问题.文中方案采用多种质量控制技术,其中包括气候极值检查、要素间一致性检查、时间一致性检查、持续性检查、背景场一致性检查、空间一致性检查、综合决策算法、自动统计评估反馈技术,并将该方案应用于2007年6-8月的实际观测资料.试验结果表明:该方案能有效地识别观测资料中存在明显错误的资料,有效地为AMDAR资料在数值模式中的应用提供客观质量依据.     

东北地区城市可持续城市化潜力评估（英文）

Sustainable urbanization is not only an important research topic in the field of urbanization, but also the development direction of new-type urbanization. In this paper, we construct an index system to evaluate sustainable urbanization potential with the entropy method. Results show that potential values of sustainable urbanization in most cities are not high. Cities with higher sustainable urbanization potential values are mainly located in the central part of Northeast China. Environmental potential of sustainable urbanization is the main contributor to sustainable urbanization potential in Northeast China. There is no absolute relationship between city size and potential value, large city does not always mean greater potential. Correlation analysis shows that urbanization rate cannot reflect the sustainable urbanization potential of a region. Population urbanization is not the ultimate goal of sustainable urbanization. Unilateral pursue urbanization rate cannot improve the potential of sustainable urbanization. Towards sustainable urbanization, governments in Northeast China should revitalize local economy, pay more attention to the rural areas and develop low-carbon economy or ecological economy. Finally, this paper highlights the importance of choosing more integrated methodology or new models for measuring sustainable urbanization potential in view of the shortcomings of one method.     

On Monsoon Precipitation Changes During the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age in Southeastern China

Periodic progresses have been made on monsoon precipitation changes during the past millennium in eastern China. However, trends of precipitation records reconstructed in the southern part of the region are inconsistent, especially for the relative humidity and dryness between the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. In the present study, 17 published monsoon precipitation records, reconstructed from lake sediments, peat sediments, coastal muddy sediments and historical documents, for the past millennium from southeastern China were collected and compared. The results show that trends of various records are inconsistent. The inconsistencies could be partly attributed to age uncertainties and interpretation of the proxies; and the regional differences in precipitation changes might be another causation. To further explore the spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms of monsoon precipitation during the past millennium in southeastern China, more records with accurate chronology and reliable proxies should be reconstructed.     

空心包体应力测量的几个问题

本文以一现场实测资料为例,将两种不同理论的计算结果进行比较,指出为了解决空心包体轴向应力偏大的问题,除了理论上的深入研究改进之外,还应改进探头粘贴材料和方法。对于软岩不存在上述问题。用于应力计算的力学参数,必须准确测试和选择弹性模量,但泊松比取值范围小且对应力计算影响不大,参考有关资料取值即可。     

跨国公司的组织模式与区位选择

本文在讨论价值链的基础上构建了一个用于解释跨国公司组织结构和区位模式的理论框架。根据跨国公司对外直接投资的区位战略，将跨国公司的投资动机划分为三类：资源导向型、降低成本导向型、市场驱使型。然后，分析了跨国公司的组织结构，并按跨国公司业务国际化的特点将跨国公司管理结构划分为七种类型：国际分工型、世界区域化型、国家子公司、世界范围生产型、世界范围功能型、母质型和母质复合型、混合型。     

预应力锚索加固岩体的应力损失分析

预应力锚索加固岩体的效果取决于预应力的大小。为了保持岩体长期稳定，必须长期保持有足够的预应力。岩体随时间产生的变形、锚索松驰、腐蚀、结构的不同等因素都将造成锚索预应力损失。这对加固效果带来不良影响。本文着重研究岩体随时间的变形产生的预应力损失。