Detecting Stochastic Behaviour and Scaling Laws in Time Series of Geomagnetic Daily Means

—We use advanced methods to extract quantitative time dynamics from geomagnetic signals. In particular we analyse daily geomagnetic time series measured at three stations in Norway. The dynamics of geomagnetic measurements has been investigated using autoregressive models. The procedure is based on two forecasting approaches: the global autoregressive approximation and the local autoregressive approximation. The first technique views the data as a realisation of a linear stochastic process, whereas the second considers them as a realisation of a deterministic process, supposedly non-linear. The comparison of the predictive skill of the two techniques is a strong test to discriminate between low-dimensional chaos and stochastic dynamics. Our findings suggest that the physical system governing the phenomena is characterised by a stochastic dynamics, and the process could be described by numerous degrees of freedom. We also investigated the kind of stochasticity of the geomagnetic signals, analysing the power spectrum density. We identify a power law P(?)∝?^-α, with the scaling exponent α which is a typical fingerprint of irregular processes. In this analysis we use the Higuchi method, which presents an interesting relationship between the fractal dimension D and the spectral power law scaling index α.     

Using hydro‐chemograph analyses to reveal runoff generation processes in a Mediterranean catchment

The paper deals with the hydro‐chemical analysis performed in order to reveal processes, sources, paths and timing of the runoff generation in an experimental catchment representative of the hilly, terrigenous and forested watershed in the Mediterranean humid eco‐region of southern Italy. The analysis is based on the data recorded at the outlet of the catchment during 2013–2014. A mixing law procedure was applied on discharge (Q) and electrical conductivity (EC) data, by using the Q–EC end members previously collected at selected groundwater, sub‐surficial and surficial stations. In this way, we found four bound curves delimiting fields in a Q–EC plot, each with hydro‐chemograph value ranges. At annual time scale, the analysis revealed a seasonal behaviour of the hydrological response, different for the wet period, when the aquifer is recharging, and the dry periods, when the aquifer is discharging, despite frequent summer rain showers. At event time scale, the catchment seems to show the behaviour of a typical hydro‐geomorphic threshold system. We interpreted this behaviour as due to a progressive addition of water from distinctive components (i.e. deep aquifer, riparian corridor, hillslope and hollow), each with originally different mechanisms of runoff production (i.e. groundwater, groundwater ridging, saturation excess, infiltration excess and soil pipe exfiltration) and response time. During the event, the contributing areas enlarge upward the riparian corridors and the zero‐order basins, where the aforementioned components become superposed and the mechanisms interact more and more. We hypothesize that the threshold values between different states of the system are defined by the intersections of the boundary curves on the Q–EC plot. Different patterns in the Q–EC hysteretic cycles are prevalently related to the pre‐event soil saturation and groundwater contributions to stormflow and recharge mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Local gamma ray events as tests of the antimatter theory of gamma ray bursts

Nearby examples of the antimatter chunks postulated by Sofia and Van Horn to explain the cosmic gamma ray bursts may produce detectable gamma ray events when struck by solar system meteoroids. These events would have a much shorter time scale and higher energy spectrum than the bursts already observed. In order to have a reasonably high event rate, the local meteoroid population must extend to a distance from the Sun of the order of 0.1 pc, but the required distance could become much lower if the instrumental threshold is improved. We also examine the expected gamma ray flux for interaction of the antimatter bodies with the solar wind, and find it far below present instrumental capabilities.     

Wave-in-deck loads on exposed jetties

This paper presents results from research on the hydraulic loadings of exposed (unsheltered) jetties (open pile piers with decks and beams). The work presented here focuses on results from physical model tests on wave-induced loads on deck and beam elements of exposed jetties and similar structures. These tests investigated the physics of the loading process, and provided new guidance on wave-in-deck loads to be used in design. Wave forces and pressures were measured on a 1:25 scale model of a jetty head with projecting elements. Structure geometry and wave conditions tested were selected after an extensive literature review (summarised in the paper) and consultation with the project steering group. Different configurations were tested to separate 2-d and 3-d effects, and to identify the effects of inundation and of down-standing beams.     

Surface breaks along the coastal plain of Cirò (Ionian Calabria,southern Italy): geophysical and paleoseismological insights

On July 28, 2004, the coastal plain of Cirò (Calabria, Ionian Sea) was interested by the sudden opening of a ~5-km-long fracture, paralleling the coastline. All the buildings, roads, and pipelines crossed by the fracture were damaged, inducing several inhabitants to abandon their houses. The crack was 1–2-cm wide, downthrowing the seaward block up to 1–2 cm. This phenomenon is known for having already hit this area at least in the past century, both concurrently or not to earthquakes with epicentre far away from Cirò. In order to investigate the subsurface geometry, and the nature of the crack, we performed 5 electrical resistivity tomography and two paleoseismological trenches across it. The two methods provided evidences for the whole displacement of the local coastal succession, with offsets of several metres cumulated during the late Holocene. Giving the radiocarbon age of samples collected in trenches, we have constrained the dates of a couple of offset events which match some paleoearthquakes caused by the Lakes Fault, in the neighbouring Sila Massif. Excluding other possible causes (i.e. anthropic or tectonic), we are inclined to interpret these phenomena as the westernmost, surficial expression of a submarine deep-seated gravity sliding.     

Peculiar earthquake damage on a reinforced concrete building in San Gregorio (L��Aquila, Italy): site effects or building defects?

In San Gregorio (L’Aquila, Italy) a three-story, reinforced concrete (RC) building had the first floor collapsed following the earthquake of April 6, 2009. The remaining two stories fell with a displacement in the horizontal projection of about 70 cm. This unusual behaviour is made more puzzling by the fact that buildings located at a short distance and with similar features had little or no damage reported. To understand the causes of the collapse we performed strong motion recordings, microtremor measurements, a detailed geological survey, a high-resolution geo-electrical tomography, a borehole with a down-hole test. On the building we performed a geometrical survey and laboratory tests on concrete cores. The acceleration and noise recordings have shown a high amplification with uphill-downhill direction. The geological survey has revealed the presence of co-seismic fractures on stiff soils. Geo-electrical tomography has shown an unexpected, strong discontinuity just below the building. Taking advantage of excavations in adjacent lots, we have highlighted rare cataclastic decimetric bands with a very low resistance material incorporated in well-stratified calcarenites. The same soft material has been founded in the borehole down to 17 m from ground level, showing a shear wave velocity that starts at 250 m/s, increases with depth and has an abrupt transition in calcarenites at 1,150 m/s. The surface geophysical measurements in the vicinity of the site have not shown similar situations, with flat HVSR curves as expected for a rock outcrop, except for a lateral extension of the soft zone. The analysis on the quality of the building materials has yielded values higher than average for the age and type of construction, and no special design or construction deficiencies have been observed. A strong, peculiar site effect thus appears to be the most likely cause of the damage observed.     

Large deformation FEMLIP drained analysis of a vertical cut

Understanding and modelling the whole instability mechanisms of a slope are fundamental issues from a scientific and technical viewpoint. To date, small strain Lagrangian approaches have mostly been used in solid mechanics for modelling the failure stage, whereas Eulerian approaches are common in fluid mechanics for propagation analysis. A combination of both approaches allows the stability, failure and propagation stages of a slope to be analysed in a unique mathematical framework. To this end, this paper adopts a finite element method with Lagrangian integration points (FEMLIP), which is currently implemented in the ELLIPSIS code and has been used in geophysics and civil engineering applications. The method combines the robustness of an Eulerian mesh with the flexibility of a set of Lagrangian particles, which allows the history of the material to be taken into account. FEMLIP is first validated with reference to benchmarks with analytical solutions, and is then tested in a large deformation drained analysis of a vertical cut in coarse-grained soils. The results are compared with those provided by the standard engineering methods (1) the limit equilibrium method (LEM) and (2) standard stress–strain elasto-plastic FEM analysis. The comparison shows that FEMLIP is a reliable method for the analysis of both the stability and the instability of a vertical cut, and can be confidently used to analyse more complex problems related to natural slopes.     

The Pliocene‐Quaternary wedge‐top basins of southern Italy: an expression of propagating lateral slab tear beneath the Apennines

In recent years, contrasting seismic tomographic images have given rise to an extensive debate about the occurrence and implications of migrating slab detachment beneath southern Italy. One of the most pertinent aspects of this process is the concentration of the slab pull force, and particularly its surface expression in terms of vertical motions and related basin subsidence/uplift. In this study we focused on shallow‐water to continental, Pliocene‐Quaternary basins that formed on top of the Apennine allochthonous wedge after its emplacement onto a large foreland carbonate platform domain (Apulian Platform). Due to the thick‐skinned style of deformation controlling the Pliocene‐Pleistocene stages of continental shortening, a high degree of coupling with the downgoing plate appears to characterize the late tectonic evolution of the southern Apennines. Therefore, the wedge‐top basins analysed in this study, although occurring on the deformed edge of the overriding plate, are capable of recording deep geodynamic processes affecting the slab. Detailed stratigraphic work on these wedge‐top basins points to a progressive SE‐ward migration of basin subsidence from c. 4 to c. 2.8 Ma over a distance of about 140 km along the strike of the Apennine belt. Such a migration is consistent with a redistribution of slab‐pull forces associated with the progressive lateral migration at a mean rate in the range of 12–14 cm y^–1 of a slab tear within the down‐going Adriatic lithosphere. These results yield fundamental information on the rates of first‐order geodynamic processes affecting the slab, and on related surface response.