长江流域极端降水时空分布和趋势

1986年以来，长江流域的极端强降水出现了显著增加的趋势，突出表现在中下游地区。长江中下游地区极端降水量的增加，既是极端降水强度增强，也是极端降水事件显著增加的结果。长江流域极端降水变化主要发生在东南部和西南部。趋势分析表明，自20世纪80年代中期以来，长江流域上游极端降水事件峰值提前到6月份出现，与长江中下游极端降水峰值出现的时间几乎同步，这必将加大遭遇性洪水发生的机率。20世纪90年代以来长江洪水的频繁发生，与长江流域极端降水时空分布的变化密切相关。     

叶片化学组分成像光谱遥感探测分析

利用地面光谱仪的测量数据,进行了成像光谱遥感探测叶片学组分的机理性研究。采用多元逐步回归方法,分析了鲜叶片７种化学组分含量与其光谱特性的关系,分别建立的反射率ρ及其变化式１／ρ、ｌｏｇρ和ρ的一阶导数Ｋρ与化学组分含量的统计方程,并对这４个指标的性能进行了比较了评价。结果表明,在９５％的置信水平下,可以由叶片的精细光谱特征较好地反映出化学组分含量;特别是利用Ｋρ作为因子,使置信水平提高到９９％,尤     

气象条件与 SARS发生的关系分析

根据 2 0 0 3年北京、香港SARS高发期间逐日确诊发病人数序列 ,运用数理统计和幂律关系方法 ,分析了不同地区SARS与气象条件之间的关系。结果表明 :京港两地SARS高发期的波动量与确诊前 7～ 1 0天的最高气温、最低气温、气温日较差、日照时数呈显著负相关 ,与相对湿度、云量呈正相关 ;气象条件与SARS发病人数呈显著的幂律关系 ,为自组织临界态理论在大气科学中的应用提供了观测证据。     

基于含砂率的相控地质统计学反演储层预测技术研究

陆相湖盆三角洲沉积储层横向变化快、纵向薄砂泥互层,储层预测难度大.针对该问题,本文以乌石油田群流沙港组二段中层序为背景,提出了一种基于含砂率的相控地质统计学反演储层预测技术.通过单井统计,建立含砂率与沉积微相的关系;再利用平面含砂率横向约束建立三维含砂率初始模型;进而运用贝叶斯理论将三维含砂率初始模型作为约束条件融入到...     

长江流域1960-2004年极端强降水时空变化趋势

Recent trends of the rainfall, intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation (EP) over the Yangtze River Basin are analyzed in this paper. Since the mid-1980s the rainfall of EP in the basin has significantly increased, and the most significant increment occurred in the southeast mid-lower reaches, and southwest parts of the basin. Summer witnessed the most remarkable increase in EP amount. Both the intensity and frequency of EP events have contributed to the rising of EP amount, but increase in frequency contributed more to the increasing trend of EP than that in intensity. The average intervals between adjacent two EP events have been shortened. It is also interesting to note that the monthly distribution of EP events in the upper basin has changed, and the maximum frequency is more likely to occur in June rather than in July. The synchronization of the maximum frequency month between the upper and mid-lower reaches might have also increased the risk of heavy floods in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River.     

1951—2010年大连市气温变化特征

利用1951—2010年大连市气温资料,采用气候趋势系数和气候倾向率、Mann-Kendal1突变分析等方法对年和季平均气温、最高最低气温变化特征进行了分析和突变检验。结果表明：大连市年和季平均气温呈上升趋势,进入21世纪,升温趋势有所减缓;大连市年平均气温的增温速率为0.33/10 a,明显高于近50 a中国平均增温...     

沈阳春玉米不同生育阶段需水量及缺水量变化特征

基于1960—2016年沈阳5个气象观测站玉米发育期资料及气象观测资料,计算春玉米不同生育阶段需水量、有效降水量,进而计算水分盈亏指数并分析其变化特征。结果表明:沈阳市春玉米除播种—出苗、出苗—七叶及拔节—抽雄期有效降水量呈增加趋势,其他发育阶段及全生育期呈显著减少趋势;全生育期及各生育阶段需水量均呈下降趋势;全生育期缺水量总体以下降为主,其中拔节—抽雄期处于强下降趋势,播种—出苗和出苗—七叶期呈弱下降趋势。沈阳北部有效降水量偏少、需水量偏高,是缺水量高值区;拔节—抽雄期缺水量最大。     

福建三大城市群气溶胶遥感监测及时空变化分析

气溶胶对城市环境质量的影响越来越受到人们的关注。利用2001—2007年MODIS卫星数据,借助6S辐射传输模式,采用目前较为成熟的暗像元方法,在分析MODIS红光、蓝光和近红外波段对气溶胶敏感性的基础上,反演福建三大城市群福州、厦门和泉州的气溶胶光学厚度,将反演结果与大气环境观测数据进行对比,并分析了三大城市群气溶胶光学厚度的时空分布与变化特征。结果表明:MODIS红光和蓝光波段均对气溶胶敏感,只是在不同季节表现出不同的敏感程度;遥感反演的气溶胶光学厚度与现场观测的PM_(10)数据相关系数为0.604;在时空分布上气溶胶光学厚度高值区与城区分布相一致,秋冬季气溶胶光学厚度明显大于其他季节。基于MODIS数据反演得到的福建三大城市群气溶胶光学厚度产品精度是可靠的,能客观反映该区域气溶胶光学厚度的时空分布与变化特征。     

鄂东长江公路大桥设计风速推算研究

利用黄石气象站年最大风速资料,在均一性检验基础上,利用极值Ⅰ型分布曲线,推算出气象站处基本风速,结合桥位处一年完整的对比观测,通过比值法把基本风速推算到设计风速。结果表明:(1)黄石气象站年最大风速在1990年前后突然减小,可能与周边建筑物增加以及全球气候变暖共同作用有关;(2)黄石气象站不同重现期(100、50、30、10 a)10 m高处10 m in平均年最大风速(基本风速)分别为25.1、23.3、22.0、19.1m/s;(3)确认气象站到桥位的风速放大系数为1.2;(4)桥位区不同重现期(100、50、30、10 a)10m高处10 m in平均年最大风速(设计风速)分别为30.1、28.0、26.4、22.9 m/s。     

Changes in runoff and sediment load from major Chinese rivers to the Pacific Ocean over the period 1955-2010

Changes in runoff and sediment loads to the Pacific Ocean from 10 major Chinese rivers are presented in this paper To quantitatively assess trends in runoff and sediment loads, a parameter called the ＂Trend Ratio T＂ has been defined in this paper. To summarize total runoff and sediment load from these rivers, data from 17 gauging stations for the duration 1955 to 2010 has been standardized, and the missing data have been interpolated by different approaches according to specific conditions. Over the observed 56-year study period, there is a quite stable change in total runoff. Results show that the mean annual runoff flux entering the Pacific Ocean from these rivers is approximately 1,425 billion cubic meters. It is found that all northern rivers within semi-arid and transitional zones including the Songhua, Liaohe, Haihe, Yellow and Huaihe rivers present declining trends in water discharge. Annual runoff in all southern rivers within humid zones including the Yangtze, Qiantang, Minjiang, Pearl and Lancang rivers does not change much, except for the Qiantang River whose annual runoff slightly increases. The annual sediment loads of all rivers show significant declining trends; the exceptions are the Songhua and Lancang rivers whose annual sediment loads have increasing trends. However, the mean annual sediment flux carried into the Pacific Ocean decreased from 2,026 million tonnes to 499 million tonnes over the 56-year period. During this time there were 4 distinct decreasing phases. The decrease in annual sediment flux is due to the integrated effects of human activity and climate change. The reduction in sediment flux makes it easy for reservoir operation; however, the decrease in sediment flux also creates problems, such as channel erosion, river bank collapse and the retreat of the delta area.