IMPACT OF VERTICAL RESOLUTION,MODEL TOP AND DATA ASSIMILATION ON WEATHER FORECASTING——A CASE STUDY

The impacts of stratospheric initial conditions and vertical resolution on the stratosphere by raising the model top, refining the vertical resolution, and the assimilation of operationally available observations, including conventional and satellite observations, on continental U.S. winter short-range weather forecasting, were investigated in this study. The initial and predicted wind and temperature profiles were analyzed against conventional observations. Generally, the initial wind and temperature bias profiles were better adjusted when a higher model top and refined vertical resolution were used. Negative impacts were also observed in both the initial wind and temperature profiles, over the lower troposphere. Different from the results by only raising the model top, the assimilation of operationally available observations led to significant improvements in both the troposphere and stratosphere initial conditions when a higher top was used. Predictions made with the adjusted stratospheric initial conditions and refined vertical resolutions showed generally better forecasting skill. The major improvements caused by raising the model top with refined vertical resolution, as well as those caused by data assimilation, were in both cases located in the tropopause and lower stratosphere. Negative impacts were also observed, in the predicted near surface wind and lower-tropospheric temperature. These negative impacts were related to the uncertainties caused by more stratospheric information, as well as to some physical processes. A case study shows that when we raise the model top, put more vertical layers in stratosphere and apply data assimilation, the precipitation scores can be slightly improved. However, more analysis are needed due to uncertainties brought by data assimilation.     

STOCHASTIC SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC REGION WITH CLASSIFICATION MODEL

Accurate simulation of tropical cyclone tracks is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone risk assessment. Against the spatial characteristics of tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region, stochastic simulation method based on classification model is used to simulate tropical cyclone tracks in this region. Such simulation includes the classification method, the genesis model, the traveling model, and the lysis model. Tropical cyclone tracks in the Northwest Pacific region are classified into five categories on the basis of its movement characteristics and steering positions. In the genesis model, Gaussian kernel probability density functions with the biased cross validation method are used to simulate the annual occurrence number and genesis positions. The traveling model is established on the basis of the mean and mean square error of the historical 6 h latitude and longitude displacements. The termination probability is used as the discrimination standard in the lysis model. Then, this stochastic simulation method of tropical cyclone tracks is applied and qualitatively evaluated with different diagnostics. Results show that the tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific can be satisfactorily simulated with this classification model.     

成都市建筑工人流感认知及行为干预

目的 做好建筑工人群体防治流感、禽流感工作,实施有效干预,避免流感流行.方法 进行干预前后的对比研究,采用问卷调查法对结果进行评价.结果 成都市建筑工人流感基本知识总体回答正确率干预前后分别为56.3％和67.0％,能够做到多通风预防流感的建筑工人从69.0％比例增加到86.0％,正确洗手的人数所占比例由干预前的70％提高到干预后的82％.结论 干预后建筑工人对流感的基本知识、态度和行为等方面明显改善,干预方式对建筑工人预防流感起到积极作用.     

五莲坤山透辉岩矿地质特征

五莲县坤山透辉岩矿赋存于古元古代粉子山群张格庄组第三岩性段下部白云石大理岩层中,有水西何子和院上2个矿段,每个矿段由2个似层状矿体组成。矿体长154～264m,厚5.68～17.57m,矿体产状稳定。顶、底板围岩岩性均为白云石大理岩,2矿层间隔4～6m。透辉岩矿矿石特征与平度、莱西等地古元古代荆山群野头组赋存的透辉岩矿相似,矿石中化学成分变化稳定,Fe2O3含量普遍较低,矿石质量好,物化性能稳定,适于用做陶瓷原料。五莲县坤山透辉岩矿为严格受地层层位控制的变质沉积型矿床。     

总状蕨藻多糖提取工艺的研究

采用酶法提取与热水抽提相结合的方法研究了总状蕨藻多糖的提取工艺，结果显示，采用固液质量比1：10，蛋白酶用量136．5U／g，于60气下酶法提取2．5h后，再将固液质量比调至1：20，在温度95气：条件下继续进行热水提取2．5h，多糖得率为6．7％，比单用热水提取法提高了131．0％。     

COMA星系团的研究5．动力学问题讨论

本文利用Ｋｅｎｔ和Ｇｕｎｎ提供的ＣＯＭＡ团天区４１４个星系的视向速度资料，以及关于团成员的统计判别结果，对ＣＯＭＡ团进行了动力学方面的讨论，分析表明ＣＯＭＡ团不存在显著动力学效应的整体转动。利用Ｋｉｎｇ－Ｍｉｃｈｉｅ模型拟合得到ＣＯＭＡ团的核半径为５．＇２（相当于２１０ｋｐｃ，取Ｈ０＝５０ｋｍ·ｓ－１·Ｍｐｃ－１），特征速度弥散度为９３５ｋｍ·ｓ－１．从动力学模型的角度来看，ＣＯＭＡ团有较为明显的形态分层。有迹象表明团中心区域的次结构是存在的。     

厚壳贻贝(Mytilus coruscus)组织及其海水环境中真菌群落结构差异分析

海洋真菌广泛参与近海生态系统的物质循环和能量流动, 同时与海洋动物之间存在复杂的相互作用。贝类是我国主要的海水养殖生物, 为深入了解海洋真菌与贝类养殖的潜在关系, 选择厚壳贻贝养殖区海水及8种组织真菌为研究对象, 利用荧光定量PCR以及ITS rDNA高通量测序解析养殖厚壳贻贝各组织及所处海水环境的真菌群落丰度和结构特征。结果显示厚壳贻贝养殖区内和边缘海域的真菌丰度显著高于养殖区外围海域; 从贻贝养殖区和组织中共获得1 409个OTUs, 其中粪壳菌纲(Sordariomycetes) 在海水真菌群落为优势纲; 而在贻贝组织中, 锤舌菌纲(Leotiomycetes, 足20.13%、肾脏14.72%)、座囊菌纲(Dothideomycetes, 鳃2.89%、后闭壳肌1.92%、血淋巴1.36%)、散囊菌纲(Eurotiomycetes, 性腺3.59%、足1.57%)和伞菌纲(Agaricomycetes, 性腺3.09%、消化腺2.71%、鳃2.50%)占据优势地位。多样性分析显示厚壳贻贝和海水间真菌群落存在显著性差异; Bray-Curtis相似距离分析显示贻贝真菌群落与养殖区内海水更为相似, 而与边缘和外围海水差距较大。厚壳贻贝不同组织间、不同区域海水间的Beta多样性差异主要来自物种替换; 贻贝与海水间真菌Beta多样性的差异主要来自丰富度差异。综上所述, 厚壳贻贝体内真菌具有组织差异性, 并且养殖活动改变了养殖区海水的真菌群落。研究结果将为贝类真菌资源、贝类-真菌相互作用及生态影响提供基础。     

层析分析法在高速公路生态环境影响评价中的应用

通过介绍层次分析法的基本原理、步骤和计算方法,将层析分析法应用到高速公路生态环境影响评价研究中,以宝(鸡)天(水)高速公路为例,将此方法运用在公路生态环境影响评价的方案比选问题中进行分析.评价结果表明:层次分析法不仅是处理公路建设生态环境影响评价中方案比选问题的有效手段,而且提高了权重定量的理性成分,其评价结果与实际结果具有较好的一致性.最后论述层析分析法在高速公路生态环境评价中的优缺点,以此为今后高速公路生态环境影响评价研究提供参考依据.     

武汉市城市网格化管理与服务系统建设与应用

阐述空间信息多级网格在城市网格化管理中应用的基本思路,介绍武汉市城市网格化管理与服务系统的总体框架、系统开发、数据建库和运行维护等情况,分析武汉市城市网格化管理与服务系统的建设特点。     

Analysis of Wave Distributions Using the WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ Model in the Arctic Ocean

In this work, we examined long-term wave distributions using a third-generation numerical wave model called WAVE- WATCH-Ⅲ(WW3) (version 6.07). We also evaluated the influence of sea ice on wave simulation by using eight parametric switches. To select a suitable ice-wave parameterization, we validated the simulations from the WW3 model in March, May, September, and December 2017 against the measurements from the Jason-2 altimeter at latitudes of up to 60?N. Generally, all parameterizations ex-hibited slight differences, i.e., about 0.6 m root mean square error (RMSE) of significant wave height (SWH) in May and September and about 0.9 m RMSE for the freezing months of March and December. The comparison of the results with the SWH from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for December 2017 indicated that switch IC4_M1 performed most effec-tively (0.68 m RMSE) at high latitudes (60?– 80?N). Given this finding, we analyzed the long-term wave distributions in 1999 – 2018 on the basis of switch IC4_M1. Although the seasonal variability of the simulated SWH was of two types, i.e., 'U' and 'sin' modes, our results proved that fetch expansion prompted the wave growth. Moreover, the interannual variability of the specific regions in the 'U' mode was found to be correlated with the decade variability of wind in the Arctic Ocean.