The impacts of climate change on local hydrology and low flow frequency in the Geum River Basin,Korea

The climate sensitive analysis of potential climate change on streamflow has been conducted using a hydrologic model to identify hydrologic variability associated with climate scenarios as a function of perturbed climatic variables (e.g. carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation). The interannual variation of water resources availability as well as low flow frequency driven by monsoonal time shifts have been investigated to evaluate the likelihood of droughts in a changing climate. The results show that the timing shift of the monsoon window associated with future climate scenarios clearly affect annual water yield change of ? 12 and ? 8% corresponding to 1‐month earlier and 1‐month later monsoon windows, respectively. Also, a more severe low flow condition has been predicted at 0·03 m³/s as opposed to the historic 7Q10 flow of 1·54 m³/s given at extreme climate scenarios. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of Roughness Parameters Within Sparse Urban-Like Obstacle Arrays

We conduct wind-tunnel experiments on three different uniform roughness arrays composed of sparsely distributed rectangular cylinders for the estimation of surface parameters. Roughness parameters such as the roughness length z ₀ and zero-plane displacement d are extracted using a best-fit approximation of the measured wind velocity. We also perform a large-eddy simulation (LES) to confirm that four sampling points are sufficient to surrogate a space average above the canopy layer of the sparse roughness arrays. We propose a new morphological model from a systematic analysis of experimental data on the arrays. The friction velocity predicted by the proposed model agrees well with the peak value of the measured Reynolds shear stress ${(-\left<\overline{u'w'}\right>)^{0.5}}${(-\left<\overline{u'w'}\right>)^{0.5}}. The proposed model is further validated in an additional wind-tunnel experiment conducted on a scaled configuration of a real urban area exposed to four wind directions. The proposed model is found to perform very well particularly in the estimation of the friction velocity, readily leading to a better estimation of turbulence, which is essential for an accurate prediction of pollutant dispersion.     

Qualitative assessment of gas hydrate and gas concentrations from the AVO characteristics of the BSR in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea (Japan Sea)

The presence of gas hydrate in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea (Japan Sea), inferred by various seismic indicators, including the widespread bottom-simulating reflector (BSR), has been confirmed by coring and drilling. We applied the standard AVO technique to the BSRs in turbidite/hemipelagic sediments crosscutting the dipping beds and those in debris-flow deposits to qualitatively assess the gas hydrate and gas concentrations. These BSRs are not likely to be affected by thin-bed tuning which can significantly alter the AVO response of the BSR. The BSRs crosscutting the dipping beds in turbidite/hemipelagic sediments are of low-seismic amplitude and characterized by a small positive gradient, indicating a decrease in Poisson’s ratio in the gas-hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), which, in turn, suggests the presence of gas hydrate. The BSRs in debris-flow deposits are characterized by a negative gradient, indicating decreased Poisson’s ratio below the GHSZ, which is likely due to a few percent or greater gas saturations. The increase in the steepness of the AVO gradient and the magnitude of the intercept of the BSRs in debris-flow deposits with increasing seismic amplitude of the BSRs is probably due to an increase in gas saturations, as predicted by AVO model studies based on rock physics. The reflection strength of the BSRs in debris-flow deposits, therefore, can be a qualitative measure of gas saturations below the GHSZ.     

Detecting the intertidal morphologic change using satellite data

Previous research has suggested that competitive bottlenecks may exist for the Mediterranean grey mullets (Osteichthyes, Mugilidae) at the fry stage with the exotic Cyprinus carpio (Osteichthyes, Cyprinidae) playing a central role. As a consequence, the structure of grey mullet assemblages at later stages is thought to reflect previous competition as well as differences in osmoregulatory skills. This paper tests that hypothesis by examining four predictions about the relative abundance of five grey mullet species in 42 Western Mediterranean estuary sites from three areas (Aiguamolls de l'Empordà, Ebro Delta and Minorca) differing in the salinity level and occurrence of C. carpio. Field data confirmed the predictions as: (1) Liza aurata and Mugil cephalus were scarce everywhere and never dominated the assemblage; (2) Liza saliens dominated the assemblage where the salinity level was higher than 13; (3) Liza ramado always dominated the assemblage where the salinity level was lower than 13 and C. carpio was present; and (4) Chelon labrosus dominated the assemblage only where the salinity level was lower than 13 and C. carpio was absent. The catch per unit effort of C. labrosus of any size was smaller in the presence of C. carpio than where it had not been introduced, which is in agreement with the juvenile competitive bottleneck hypothesis. Discriminant analysis confirmed that the assemblage structure was linked to the salinity level and the occurrence of C. carpio for both early juveniles and late juveniles as well as adults. The data reported here reveal that the structure of grey mullet assemblages inhabiting Mediterranean estuaries is determined by salinity and competitive interactions at the fry stage.     

Observational and numerical analysis of the characteristics of MCS development associated with trigger effect of isolated islands

In order to clarify the characteristics of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) development and understand the impact of the trigger effect of isolated islands, observational and numerical analysis of the heavy rainfall were carried out over the southwestern part of the Korean Peninsula on July 14, 2004. Satellite based remote sensing data and numerical model MM5 with observational data adjustment were used in this study. The MCS development, in this case, was accompanied not by directional wind shear, but by speed shear which was strongly associated with development of the updraft cloud. An inversion layer at a 750 hPa level is one of the fundamental factors in increasing instability. Effective separation of the upper and lower level atmospheric structure due to an inversion layer at a 750 hPa level creates a suitable condition to develop a MCS. According to numerical analysis it has been found that isolated islands located off the southwestern part of the Korean Peninsula are not a principal factor in causing the heavy rainfall due to the evolution of MCS in this case. Transferable topographic forcing of the downwind side can often induce the variation of MCS intensity, while associated with the precipitation amount over the lee side of the isolated islands at a mature stage of MCS development.     

Use of an artificial neural network for analysis of the susceptibility to landslides at Boun,Korea

The purpose of this study was to develop landslide susceptibility analysis techniques using artificial neural networks and to apply the resulting techniques to the study area of Boun in Korea. Landslide locations were identified in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs and field survey data. A spatial database of the topography, soil type, timber cover, geology, and land cover was constructed and the landslide-related factors were extracted from the spatial database. Using these factors, the susceptibility to landslides was analyzed by artificial neural network methods. The results of the landslide susceptibility maps were compared and verified using known landslide locations at another area, Yongin, in Korea. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to analyze efficiently the vast amount of data and an artificial neural network turned out to be an effective tool to analyze the landslide susceptibility.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis and its verification using likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models: case study of Youngin, Korea

The likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural networks models are applied and verified for analysis of landslide susceptibility in Youngin, Korea, using the geographic information system. From a spatial database containing such data as landslide location, topography, soil, forest, geology, and land use, the 14 landslide-related factors were calculated or extracted. Using these factors, landslide susceptibility indexes were calculated by likelihood ratio, logistic regression, and artificial neural network models. Before the calculation, the study area was divided into two sides (west and east) of equal area, for verification of the models. Thus, the west side was used to assess the landslide susceptibility, and the east side was used to verify the derived susceptibility. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were verified using success and prediction rates. The verification results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide locations.     

Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA

To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum temperature, self-calibrated Palmer Drought Index and Standardized Precipitation Index for 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales were used to identify spatial and temporal distribution of climatic extreme and variability as well as drought frequency and magnitude. Seven oceanic indices were also used to detect teleconnections between climatic indices and regional droughts. The analyses were conducted for 56 meteorological stations, during 1962?C2008, characterized by a long-term and high-quality data set. The result indicates that decreasing trends and increasing trends are identified for precipitation and temperature, respectively. Consequently, it appears that frost and ice days dwindle as growing season (May?CAugust) length, tropical nights and summer days increase. Given current climate conditions, the results also imply that these trends will continue in the future possibly driven by uncertain climate variability. We anticipate that these indices explained by teleconnections will improve drought-forecasting capability in this region.     

Sulfur biogeochemistry and isotopic fractionation in shallow groundwater and sediments of Owens Dry Lake, California

Groundwater and sediment samples (∼ 1 m depth) at sites representative of different groundwater pathways were collected to determine the aqueous speciation of sulfur and the fractionation of sulfur isotopes in aqueous and solid phases. In addition, selected sediment samples at 5 depths (from oxic to anoxic layers) were collected to investigate the processes controlling sulfur biogeochemistry in sedimentary layers. Pyrite was the dominant sulfur-bearing phase in the capillary fringe and groundwater zones where anoxic conditions are found. Low concentrations of pyrite (< 5.9 g kg^− 1) coupled with high concentrations of dissolved sulfide (4.81 to 134.7 mg L^− 1) and low concentrations of dissolved Fe (generally < 1 mg L^− 1) and reducible solid-phase Fe indicate that availability of reactive Fe limits pyrite formation. The relative uniformity of down-core isotopic trends for sulfur-bearing mineral phases in the sedimentary layers suggests that sulfate reduction does not result in significant sulfate depletion in the sediment. Sulfate availability in the deeper sediments may be enhanced by convective vertical mixing between upper and lower sedimentary layers due to evaporative concentration. The large isotope fractionation between dissolved sulfate and sedimentary sulfides at Owens Lake provides evidence for initial fractionation from bacterial sulfate reduction and additional fractionation generated by sulfide oxidation followed by disproportionation of intermediate oxidation state sulfur compounds. The high salinity in the Owens Lake brines may be a factor controlling sulfate reduction and disproportionation in hypersaline conditions and results in relatively constant values for isotope fractionation between dissolved sulfate and total reduced sulfur.