利用区域宽频带数据反演鲁甸MS6.5级地震震源破裂过程

基于有限断层模型反演方法,我们利用区域宽频带数据反演得到了2014年8月3日鲁甸M_S6.5级地震的震源破裂过程.反演结果显示：此次地震的发震断层走向为北北西向,破裂主要以左旋走滑为主,位移主要发生在震源左上方,最大滑动量为0.7 m,模型显示断层破裂可能接近地表,破裂长度约10 km.此次地震释放的标量地震矩为1.97×10¹⁸ N·m,相当于矩震级为M_w 6.1,地震能量主要在前15 s释放.鲁甸地震有四个显著的特点：（1）位移主要集中在浅部,从11 km起破点开始迅速向上传播,大部分位于10 km以上且最大位移位于深度3 km处,从模型来看,破裂可能接近地表,因此地表震动较为强烈;（2）应力降比较大,计算显示释放的同震静态应力降约为2.8 MPa;（3）破裂速度较快,在地表附近超过了2.5 km·s^-1;（4）主震可能发生在一个共轭断层系上.这四个特点可能是导致此次地震造成如此重大人员伤亡和财产损失的最重要的原因.     

鲁甸6.5级地震发震断层判定及其构造属性讨论

鲁甸6.5级地震是川滇菱形块体南南东向运动在青藏高原东缘与华南地块相互作用边界变形带上发生的一次中等强度地震.尽管野外应急科学考察没有发现明显的地震地表破裂带,但云南昭通防震减灾局局域地震台网记录到的余震条带状分布、震后科学考察获得的地震烈度长轴方位和极震区地震裂缝等显示出发震断层为NW向包谷垴-小河断裂,左旋走滑性质,属大凉山断裂南端部组成部分;库仑应力计算表明,鲁甸地震可对周边活动断层系历史地震空段产生应力加载作用,其地震危险性不容忽视.     

Time‐lapse pre‐stack seismic data registration and inversion for CO2 sequestration study at Cranfield

Pre‐stack seismic data are indicative of subsurface elastic properties within the amplitude versus offset characteristic and can be used to detect elastic rock property changes caused by injection. We perform time‐lapse pre‐stack 3‐D seismic data analysis for monitoring sequestration at Cranfield. The time‐lapse amplitude differences of Cranfield datasets are found entangled with time‐shifts. To disentangle these two characters, we apply a local‐correlation‐based warping method to register the time‐lapse pre‐stack datasets, which can effectively separate the time‐shift from the time‐lapse seismic amplitude difference without changing the original amplitudes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our registration method by evaluating the inverted elastic properties. These inverted time‐lapse elastic properties can be reliably used for monitoring plumes.     

云南彝良“9?7地震”前异常特点

对2012年9月7日云南省昭通市彝良县洛泽河一带5.7、5.6级地震前地震活动和前兆异常分析,其地震活动特征、流体和形变动态变化及预测指标,发现：地震前4级地震活动水平增强、出现小震活动空区;前兆异常开始于震前1年左右;短期异常有由外围向震中迁移的现象;临震异常出现的时间较为集中,震前一周内。对该地区5.0级以上强震的预报和研究具有一定的指示意义。     

Effect of catchment properties on runoff coefficient in a karst area of southwest China

Frequent human activities and climate change in the karst region of southwest China since the 1950s have led to the investigation of response of runoff to climate and catchment properties. Runoff coefficient (Rc) as an expression variable of the catchment response to rainfall is important to describe runoff dynamics and to estimate available streamflow for utilization. In this study, the equations of Rc associated with its attributors of climate condition and catchment property were derived using the Budyko framework. The equations were used to estimate relationship between the Rc and the attributors in the karst catchments in Guizhou province of southwest China. Analysis in the selected 23 karst catchments demonstrates that the spatial distribution of Rc is dominated by the catchment properties, such as the catchment properties of geology, slope and land use and land cover, rather than climate condition of drought index. Correlation analysis indicates that the catchment with a large slope usually has a high value of Rc, and a large proportion of carbonate rock in a catchment reduces Rc in the study area. Temporal increasing trend of Rc during 1961–2000 was found for most catchments in the study area. This increasing trend was primarily resulted from changes of catchment properties, e.g. deforestation in large areas of Guizhou province during the 1950s–1980s. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

张衡地动仪（1）：诞生的历史

The emergence of Zhang Heng＇s seismoscope has a profound historical background. This paper intends to explore the formation and material basis of Zhang Heng＇s scientific thought. It appears that the simple intention of ＂observing visions and distinguishing good fortune or misfortune＂ was his motivation to develop the seismoscope. Tracing its historical background, the authors proposed in this paper that the development of this seismoscope started around 128 A.D., and based on perceptual knowledge, two ideas about earthquakes came into being, i. e. , earthquake location could be judged according to the instrument shaking direction, and the earthquake and earth split were essentially different. In the instrument manufacture, Zhang Heng advocated a principle of ＂making utensils to imitate cosmos ＂. By this principle, the following three problems were readily solved： the seismoscope imitated the response of the suspension system to earthquakes （ i.e. natural seismoscope） . Technically, the trigger mechanism of the latch was used for reference, and it recorded the physical evidence of earthquake occurrence by an ingenious way of a ball dropping from a dragon＇s mouth. The solution of these three key problems lead to the emergence of the seismoscope in 132 A.D. and the successful detection of an earthquake in 134 A.D. His invention deepened humanity＇s knowledge of natural laws, and promoted the development of science and technology in that time and later.     

地震预警系统中进一步提高三台震中定位精度的方法研究

针对基于3个台站Pg震相进行震中定位时有时存在误差较大、不稳定等现象,通过分析区域速度模型差异、台站的几何分布对震中定位精度的影响,结合山东虚拟测震台网,给出了接近实际的直达Pg波视速度结构,提出了三台震中定位的综合解决方案。对2009~2013年山东虚拟测震台网内1 555次地震的震中定位结果表明,应用三台定位方法得到的震中定位误差平均为8.7 km(与台网定位结果相比),提高了震中定位的精度,减少了震中不能确定的概率。     

土工动力离心模型试验中物理破坏模拟比较及关键问题

针对土工动力离心模型试验中模型与原型在动力响应和动力破坏模拟两个不同层次的相似程度。首先分析总结离心模型试验在动力响应模拟、动力破坏模拟两个方面的研究发展现状;然后分析这两种模拟模型中的相似比尺的实现要求、特点和区别;最后,针对抗滑模型桩和地铁模型,分析推导动力离心模型在动力响应模拟和动力破坏模拟中具体的模型理论比尺关系和关键问题,进一步指出目前土工动力离心模型试验研究存在的一些问题和发展方向。分析结果表明,针对模型与原型的相似比尺关系,动力破坏模拟模型的相似条件远比动力响应模拟模型的相似条件要求更为严格,这也是动力破坏模拟模型能够揭示岩土结构原型破坏的根本原因。     

伪卫星增强下的北斗系统服务精度仿真分析

提出伪卫星增强条件下的北斗定位与授时方法,推导相应的定位及授时算法,利用仿真数据完成伪卫星增强下的北斗地面和空中用户DOP值分析,分析伪卫星布站需求,论证了地面用户和空中用户的定位和授时精度。分析结果表明,伪卫星增强是提高北斗系统服务的有效技术途径,在区域范围内布设4颗左右伪卫星可以获得优于1.32左右的PDOP值,地面用户的位置精度达到1.3 m左右,授时精度达到1.6 ns左右,空中用户的位置精度达到1.5 m左右,授时精度达到2.4 ns左右,其中高程精度和授时精度均得到大幅提升。     

基于Rsync的中央气象台数据备份机制及优化设计

中央气象台实时业务中的数据支持是完成全国灾害性天气监视预报的核心支撑,每天使用的实时数据更新量大于500G,其中大量数据需要不间断使用,因此实时数据备份及在异常情况下的及时恢复对中央气象台的实时业务保障显得十分重要。中央气象台在业务中使用的操作系统种类较多,文件存取使用方式及各类数据权限各不相同,通过研发与实践提出基于Rsync同步数据传输机制的数据备份方案,并在实际使用中逐步优化,实现了对不同种类的数据及操作系统实行不同的备份策略,在实际业务中起到了较好的效果。