Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

Automated mapping of rock slope geometry,kinematics and stability with RSS-GIS

A GIS-implemented, deterministic approach for the automated spatial evaluation of geometrical and kinematical properties of rock slope terrains is presented. Based on spatially distributed directional information on planar geological fabrics and DEM-derived topographic attribute data, the internal geometry of rock slopes can be characterized on a grid cell basis. For such computations, different approaches for the analysis and regionalization of available structural directional information applicable in specific tectonic settings are demonstrated and implemented in a GIS environment. Simple kinematical testing procedures based on feasibility criteria can be conducted on a pixel basis to determine which failure mechanisms are likely to occur at particular terrain locations. In combination with hydraulic and strength data on geological discontinuities, scenario-based rock slope stability evaluations can be performed. For conceptual investigations on rock slope failure processes, a GIS-based specification tool for a 2-D distinct element code (UDEC) was designed to operate with the GIS-encoded spatially distributed rock slope data. The concepts of the proposed methodology for rock slope hazard assessments are demonstrated at three different test sites in Germany.     

基于三差解检测与修复GPS载波相位周跳新方法

对飞行中初始化载波相位整周模糊度ＧＰＳ的动态差分定位而言,如果在整周模糊度初始化过程中发生载波相位周跳,将严重影响整周模糊度的确定,本文对已有的ＧＰＳ静态差分定位中通过三差解检测与修复周跳的方法进行了推广,提出了一种适合于解决Ｏｎ－Ｔｈｅ－Ｆｌｙ整周模糊度初始化过程中周跳问题的新方法。新方法保持了静态情况下原有方法的特点,分析和利用实采数据进行的检验表明,新方法是有效和实用的。     

综合景观格局与经济指标进行土地利用二维尺度分区——以青海省为例

运用空间统计分析方法综合表征土地利用特征的景观格局指数和社会经济指数进行土地利用分区.经过指数降维、筛选指数因子进行系统聚类,在聚类分区方法的选择上,经过反复验证选定标准欧氏距离-加权平均法和明科夫斯基-加权平均法两种最佳匹配算法.将聚类结果合并分区,将青海省土地划分为4个区,各区地类景观和经济水平相异,分析结果对指导青海省土地利用合理规划开发意义重大.     

Leveraging similarity analysis to understand variability in movement behavior

The increasingly large volume of trajectories of moving entities obtained through GPS and cellphone tracking, telemetry, and other location-aware technologies motivates researchers to understand the implicit patterns hidden in movement trajectories and understand how movement is influenced by the environmental context. Trajectory similarity serves as an important tool in computational movement analysis and as the foundation of revealing those patterns. However, there are various trajectory similarity measures, each of which has its own strengths and weaknesses. In this article, we present a hierarchical clustering framework that integrates five commonly used similarity measures, including Fréchet distance, dynamic time warping, Hausdorff distance, longest common subsequence, and normalized weighted edit distance, a special kind of edit distance for movement analysis. The framework aims at clustering similar patterns and identifying variability in movement. The optimal number of clusters are first obtained. Then, the clusters are characterized by environmental variables to explore the associations between variability in movement and the environmental conditions. We evaluate the proposed framework using 15 years of tracking data of turkey vultures, tracked at 1- to 3-h sampling intervals, during their fall and spring migration seasons. The results suggest that, at 5% significance level, turkey vultures select their movement paths intentionally and those selections appear to be related to certain environmental context variables, including thermal uplift, vegetation state (observed indirectly through Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), temperature, precipitation, tailwind, and crosswind. And interestingly, there exist preferential differences among individuals. Although the preference of the same turkey vulture is not strictly consistent over different years, each individual tends to preserve a more similar preference over different years, compared with the preferences of other turkey vultures.     

我国生态文明评价指标体系综述

在推进生态文明建设的背景下,构建生态文明评价指标体系对生态文明发展状况进行监测和预警,为生态文明建设提供决策支持,具有十分重要的意义.本文根据生态文明的本质内涵,回顾了可持续发展概念自提出以来生态文明评价指标体系的发展历程,对我国生态文明建设相关的评价指标体系进行归纳和总结;重点以政府管理实践中的生态文明评价指标体系为例,分析了我国生态文明评价指标体系的特征与存在的问题.     

巢湖地学实习基地数字化平台的建立

利用GIS工具（MapInfo）对地图（例如巢湖地学基地）进行矢量化,打下建立数字化平台的基础。再根据断层,等高线等分布资料,利用GIS的空间分析功能描绘出整个巢湖地学基地地形分布图。对地形分布图加入它的属性,从而可以比较直观系统地对其分析．也方便了地学工作者。     

The determination of potential difference by the joint application of measured and synthetical gravity data: a case study in Hungary

In an elementary approach every geometrical height difference between the staff points of a levelling line should have a corresponding average g value for the determination of potential difference in the Earth’s gravity field. In practice this condition requires as many gravity data as the number of staff points if linear variation of g is assumed between them. Because of the expensive fieldwork, the necessary data should be supplied from different sources. This study proposes an alternative solution, which is proved at a test bed located in the Mecsek Mountains, Southwest Hungary, where a detailed gravity survey, as dense as the staff point density (~1 point/34 m), is available along a 4.3-km-long levelling line. In the first part of the paper the effect of point density of gravity data on the accuracy of potential difference is investigated. The average g value is simply derived from two neighbouring g measurements along the levelling line, which are incrementally decimated in the consecutive turns of processing. The results show that the error of the potential difference between the endpoints of the line exceeds 0.1 mm in terms of length unit if the sampling distance is greater than 2 km. Thereafter, a suitable method for the densification of the decimated g measurements is provided. It is based on forward gravity modelling utilising a high-resolution digital terrain model, the normal gravity and the complete Bouguer anomalies. The test shows that the error is only in the order of 10⁻³mm even if the sampling distance of g measurements is 4 km. As a component of the error sources of levelling, the ambiguity of the levelled height difference which is the Euclidean distance between the inclined equipotential surfaces is also investigated. Although its effect accumulated along the test line is almost zero, it reaches 0.15 mm in a 1-km-long intermediate section of the line.     

Phase center modeling for LEO GPS receiver antennas and its impact on precise orbit determination

Most satellites in a low-Earth orbit (LEO) with demanding requirements on precise orbit determination (POD) are equipped with on-board receivers to collect the observations from Global Navigation Satellite systems (GNSS), such as the Global Positioning System (GPS). Limiting factors for LEO POD are nowadays mainly encountered with the modeling of the carrier phase observations, where a precise knowledge of the phase center location of the GNSS antennas is a prerequisite for high-precision orbit analyses. Since 5 November 2006 (GPS week 1400), absolute instead of relative values for the phase center location of GNSS receiver and transmitter antennas are adopted in the processing standards of the International GNSS Service (IGS). The absolute phase center modeling is based on robot calibrations for a number of terrestrial receiver antennas, whereas compatible antenna models were subsequently derived for the remaining terrestrial receiver antennas by conversion (from relative corrections), and for the GNSS transmitter antennas by estimation. However, consistent receiver antenna models for space missions such as GRACE and TerraSAR-X, which are equipped with non-geodetic receiver antennas, are only available since a short time from robot calibrations. We use GPS data of the aforementioned LEOs of the year 2007 together with the absolute antenna modeling to assess the presently achieved accuracy from state-of-the-art reduced-dynamic LEO POD strategies for absolute and relative navigation. Near-field multipath and cross-talk with active GPS occultation antennas turn out to be important and significant sources for systematic carrier phase measurement errors that are encountered in the actual spacecraft environments. We assess different methodologies for the in-flight determination of empirical phase pattern corrections for LEO receiver antennas and discuss their impact on POD. By means of independent K-band measurements, we show that zero-difference GRACE orbits can be significantly improved from about 10 to 6 mm K-band standard deviation when taking empirical phase corrections into account, and assess the impact of the corrections on precise baseline estimates and further applications such as gravity field recovery from kinematic LEO positions.     

Using gravity and topography-implied anomalies to assess data requirements for precise geoid computation

Many regions around the world require improved gravimetric data bases to support very accurate geoid modeling for the modernization of height systems using GPS. We present a simple yet effective method to assess gravity data requirements, particularly the necessary resolution, for a desired precision in geoid computation. The approach is based on simulating high-resolution gravimetry using a topography-correlated model that is adjusted to be consistent with an existing network of gravity data. Analysis of these adjusted, simulated data through Stokes’s integral indicates where existing gravity data must be supplemented by new surveys in order to achieve an acceptable level of omission error in the geoid undulation. The simulated model can equally be used to analyze commission error, as well as model error and data inconsistencies to a limited extent. The proposed method is applied to South Korea and shows clearly where existing gravity data are too scarce for precise geoid computation.