The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational data assimilation systems: Part II - Performance and application to the California Current System

The Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation systems have been systematically applied to the mesoscale circulation environment of the California Current to demonstrate the performance and practical utility of the various components of ROMS 4D-Var. In particular, we present a comparison of three approaches to 4D-Var, namely: the primal formulation of the incremental strong constraint approach; the dual formulation “physical-space statistical analysis system”; and the dual formulation indirect representer approach. In agreement with theoretical considerations all three approaches converge to the same ocean circulation estimate when using the same observations and prior information. However, the rate of convergence of the dual formulation was found to be inferior to that of the primal formulation. Other aspects of the 4D-Var performance that relate to the use of multiple outer-loops, preconditioning, and the weak constraint are also explored. A systematic evaluation of the impact of the various components of the 4D-Var control vector (i.e. the initial conditions, surface forcing and open boundary conditions) is also presented. It is shown that correcting for uncertainties in the model initial conditions exerts the largest influence on the ability of the model to fit the available observations. Various important diagnostics of 4D-Var are also examined, including estimates of the posterior error, the information content of the observation array, and innovation-based consistency checks on the prior error assumptions. Using these diagnostic tools, we find that more than 90% of the observations assimilated into the model provide redundant information. This is a symptom of the large percentage of satellite data that are used and to some extent the nature of the data processing employed. This is the second in a series of three papers describing the ROMS 4D-Var systems.     

NRM engagement between remote dryland communities and government agencies: Success factors from Australia

The management of dryland environments involves the interaction of multiple government agencies and citizens, and is required to respond to a wide range of responsibilities and aspirations for a given region. This paper focuses on the characteristics of engagement between management agencies and citizens in a dryland region, presented here as a series of success factors. These factors are based on empirical research carried out in the Lake Eyre Basin in Australia, one of the world’s largest inwardly draining basins. The results reinforce generic and dryland-specific factors supporting successful community engagement. The former, such as building trust, working in partnership, supporting community champions, and maintaining transparency, are necessary but insufficient for achieving successful community engagement in the case study region. In addition, community engagement in the case study region also required respecting the extreme conditions and extraordinary variability of the Basin and committing to longer timeframes even if the outcomes of community engagement are slow to accrue, in order to take advantage of opportunities in more prosperous times.     

Urban spatial development and land use in Beijing: Implications from London’s experiences

Beijing is facing a huge challenge to manage the growth of its built-up area whilst also retaining both productive arable land and land for conservation purposes in order to simultaneously realize the three aims of economic development, protecting arable land and generating environmental improvements. Meanwhile, London, as a world city with more than 200 years of industrialization and urbanization, has accumulated rich theoretical and practical experiences for land use planning in a major urban area, such as the creation of Garden Cities, a designated Green Belt and New Towns. This paper firstly analyzes the main characteristics of the spatial distribution of the built-up area, arable land and conservation land in Beijing. Then, some of the key aspects of urban fringe planning in the London region are examined. Lastly, several implications from the experience of London are provided with respect to land-use planning for Beijing, concentrating on a re-appraisal of land-use functions around Beijing, measures to improve the green belt, the development of small towns to house rural-urban migrants and urban overspill, and effective implementation of land-use planning.     

Upper crustal shortening and forward modeling of the Himalayan thrust belt along the Budhi-Gandaki River, central Nepal

A balanced cross-section along the Budhi-Gandaki River in central Nepal between the Main Central thrust, including displacement on that fault, and the Main Frontal thrust reveals a minimum total shortening of 400 km. Minimum displacement on major orogen-scale structures include 116 km on the Main Central thrust, 110 km on the Ramgarh thrust, 95 km on the Trishuli thrust, and 56 km in the Lesser Himalayan duplex. The balanced cross-section was also incrementally forward modeled assuming a generally forward-breaking sequence of thrusting, where early faults and hanging-wall structures are passively carried from the hinterland toward the foreland. The approximate correspondence of the forward modeled result to observe present day geometries suggest that the section interpretation is viable and admissible. In the balanced cross-section, the Trishuli thrust is the roof thrust for the Lesser Himalayan duplex. The forward model and reconstruction emphasize that the Lesser Himalayan duplex grew by incorporating rock from the footwall and transferring it to the hanging wall along the Main Himalayan thrust. As the duplex developed, the Lesser Himalayan ramp migrated southward. The movement of Lesser Himalayan thrust sheets over the ramp pushed the Lesser Himalayan rock and the overburdens of the Greater and Tibetan Himalayan rock toward the erosional surface. This vertical structural movement caused by footwall collapse and duplexing, in combination with erosion, exhumed the Lesser Himalaya.     

A Comparative Study of Five Reference Materials and the Lombard Meteorite for the Determination of the Platinum‐Group Elements and Gold by LA‐ICP‐MS

A range of independently characterised reference materials (RMs) for LA‐ICP‐MS, used for the determination of the platinum‐group elements (PGE) and Au in a sulfide matrix, were analysed and compared: 8b, PGE‐A, NiS‐3, Po727‐T1, Po724‐T and the Lombard meteorite. The newly developed RM NiS‐3 was used as the RM for the calibration of all LA‐ICP‐MS analyses and the measured concentrations of the other RMs compared against their published concentrations. This data were also used to assess the consistency of concentrations calibrated against the different RMs. It was found that Po727‐T1 and 8b produced results that were comparable, within uncertainty, for all elements. Po727‐T1 also produced consistent results with NiS‐3 for all elements. All other RMs showed differences for some elements, especially Ru in Po724‐T, and Os, Ir and Au in PGE‐A. The homogeneity of the PGE and Au in each RM was assessed, by comparing the precision of multiple LA‐ICP‐MS spot analyses with the average uncertainty of the signal. Po724‐T, Po727‐T1 and the Lombard meteorite were found to be homogeneous for all elements, but 8b, PGE‐A and NiS‐3 were heterogeneous for some elements. This is the first direct comparison between a range of independently characterised PGE and Au LA‐ICP‐MS RMs.     

Effects of changing land use on the microbial water quality of tidal creeks

Population growth along the southeastern United States coast has precipitated the conversion of forested watersheds to suburban and urban ones. This study sampled creeks representing forested, suburban, and urban watersheds along a longitudinal gradient for indicators of water quality, including traditional indicator bacteria (fecal coliforms and enterococci) and alternative viral indicators (male-specific and somatic coliphages). Tested microorganisms were generally distributed with highest concentrations in creek headwaters and in more developed watersheds. The headwaters also showed the strongest predictive relationship between indicator concentrations and urbanization as measured by impervious cover. A seasonal pattern was observed for indicator bacteria but not for indicator viruses. Coliphage typing indicated the likely source of contamination was nonhuman. Results suggest that headwater creeks can serve as sentinel habitat, signaling early warning of public health concerns from land-based anthropogenic activities. This study also implies the potential to eventually forecast indicator concentrations under land use change scenarios.     

Peculiarities of artificial ionospheric radiation under the action of high-power HF radiowaves, emitted by the SPEAR facility, on the sporadic E layer of the polar ionosphere

The results of the experimental studies of the ionospheric effects originating under the action of high-power HF radiowaves, emitted by the SPEAR heating facility into the sporadic E _s layer of the polar ionosphere, are presented. The experiment was performed on March 2, 2007, simultaneously at two spaced points: Barentsburg (Spitsbergen, a distance of about 40 km from the SPEAR facility) and Gor’kovskaya observatory near St. Petersburg, located at a distance of about 2000 km from SPEAR. The distributions of the heating signal intensity in the 100 kHz frequency band were measured in Barentsburg. Bistatic backscatter of diagnostic HF signals by small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities was observed at Gor’kovskaya observatory. Based on an analysis of the experimental data obtained in Barentsburg, it has been found out that a broadband noise-like component originated and additional maximums appeared in the heating signal spectrum. The broadband emission intensity was a factor of 1.5–3 as high as the noise level. The additional maximums were formed in the regions of the positive and negative frequency shift relative to the heating signal frequency and were observed when the heating frequency was lower than the critical frequency of the E _s layer; e.g., a high-power HF radiowave reflected from E _s . The expression for determining the frequency shift of the additional maximum in the heating signal spectrum at altitudes of the ionospheric E region, taking into account the ion-electron collision frequency, has been obtained. The heating signal spectrum registration was compared with the observations of small-scale artificial ionospheric irregularities and the trajectory modeling of signals scattered by the considered irregularities. The observation results have been analyzed and interpreted taking into account the magnetic and ionospheric data characterizing the background geophysical conditions.     

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.     

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.