近代回归分析在交通调查分析建模中的应用

本文以出行发生量模型的建立为例,较为系统地讨论了近代回归分析中的自变量选择及回归诊断方法在交通调查分析建模中的应用。分析了在获取调查数据后,如何借助回归自变量选择方法来选择最佳自变量子集,以确定简捷的回归模型;文中应用回归诊断方法,讨论了修正回归模型、探测错误的调查数据的方法,从而为建立简捷、高精度的交通模型打下了基础。最后,作者提出了应用自变量选择及回归诊断方法建立出行发行量模型的一般步骤。     

CHANGE OF CLIMATE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CROPPING SYSTEM IN CHINA

Tne global change of climate and its influence on the cropping system in China have been investigatedin this paper.It is found that the temperature was increased during the last decade and the precipitationdecreased in northern China and increased in southern China during the last 30 years.The sea level hasbeen rising by about 21—26 cm in the coastal areas south of 30°N in China during the last 100 years.The most of results as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs)show that the temperature increasewould amount to about 2°—4°C in the most parts of China and precipitation and soil moisture might bedecreased in northern China and increased in sourthern China due to doubling of carbon dioxide(CO_2).The effects of doubled CO_2 on growth period and climatic yield capability in China have been estimatedroughly.It is shown that the regions of the growth period in China would be moved northward about fivedegrees latitude and the climatic yield capability might be increased by about 10％ in the most parts of China.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE INFLUENCES OF HEAT AND WIND STRESS ON THE EQUATORIAL OCEAN CIRCULATION*

A time-dependent linear model on the equatorial beta plane is developed in this paper.Its vertical structure consists of two active layers with equal density and temperature above the thermocline and a quasi-stationary layer with constant density below the thermocline.The results of nurnericat experiments show that the direct influence of heat on the equatorial ocean is much smaller than that of wind stress.Nevertheless,through the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction,the change of wind stress resulting from the thermal forcing may set a determinant effect on the equilibrium and anomalous development of the ocean-almosphere circulation.     

热力和动力强迫对热带海洋运动影响的数值试验

本文提出了一个赤道β平面非定常线性模式,其垂直结构在斜温层以上是具有相同密度的两个活动层,斜温层以下是密度较大的均质静止流体。数值试验表明,热强迫与风强迫相比对海洋的直接影响很小,但通过海气相互作用,它可形成风强迫作用于海洋,对海气环流系统有支配作用。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE INFLUENCES OF HEAT AND WIND STRESS ON THE EQUATORIAL OCEAN CIRCULATION

A time-dependent linear model on the equatorial beta plane is developed in this paper.Its verticalstructure consists of two active layers with equal density and temperature above the thermocline and aquasi-stationary layer with constant density below the thermocline.The results of nurnericat experiments show that the direct influence of heat on the equatorial ocean ismuch smaller than that of wind stress.Nevertheless,through the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction,the change of wind stress resulting from the thermal forcing may set a determinant effect on the equilibriumand anomalous development of the ocean-almosphere circulation.     

Petrochemistry,Age and Petrogenesis of the Shexian Pluton in Southern Anhui

The Shexian gneissic granodiorite in southern Anhui trends NE 55° from Shexian in the west to Guitoujian in the east with a length of 22 km and an outcrop area of 32 km. It was considered formerly to be Caledonian on the basis of a biotite K-Ar age of 474 Ma (1982). However, new evidence indicates that it may be Early Jinning in age as shown by: (1) it is found intruding into the Mid-Proterozoic Shangxi Group and is unconformably overlain by the Sinian Xiuning Formation, and (2) a zircon U-Th-Pb age of 928 Ma is obtained for the pluton. The pluton is composed of plagioclase (An=27.37%), K-feldspar(14%), biotite(16%) and quartz(32%). Accessory minerals are ilmenite (150g/T), xenotime (15g/T). garnet(25g/T), monazite(10g/T), zircon (20g/T) and apatite (104g/T). Petrochemical characteristics of the intrusion are:(l) Al-enrichment (A/NKC=1.30); (2) H₂O enrichment (H₂O= 1.74%); and (3) low oxidation index (f ’=0.10). It belongs to the continental crust transformation type as evidenced by: (1) MF and Mg/Y values of biotite are 0.41 and 0.31 respectively; (2) (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)=0.71119; (3) δ Eu=0.52; and (4) A/NKC=130. The Shexian pluton is therefore considered as a product of melting of phyllite at depth in the light of similarities in trace element and REE contents with the phyllite of the Banxi Group. Calculations of REE batch partial melting indicate that it may have resulted from 75% melting of the Banxi phyllite.     

Vening—Meinesz公式的球面卷积形式

过去利用快速Fourier变换（FFT）或快速Hartley变换（FHT）技术计算垂线偏差是假设地球是一个平面。在此基础上导出的Vening-Meinesz公式平面卷积形式虽然在一定精度范围内可以满足要求，但会产生较大的近似误差。然而，Vening-Meinesz公式同样可以发展为由FHT技术计算的二维球面卷积公式。数值计算表明：在Δ(?)=10°，Δλ=13°（5′×5′平均重力异常）范围内，Vening-Meinesz球面卷积公式的计算结果与数值积分结果的均方差m_ξ=±0.03秒、m_η=±0.02秒，比平面卷积公式的计算结果与数值积分结果的均方差m_ξ=±0.14秒、m_η=±0.30秒有显著提高。     

亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验

利用数值预报产品，对原亚欧５００ｈＰａ旬平均形势预报方程作了改进。除对空间和时间尺度上作了改进外，在预报因子的选择上，由亚欧地区的单点相关，扩张至整个北半球的相关；并根据长波天气系统的气候地理分布和遥相关分析等方法，选择关键区作为候选因子，组建了新的形势预报方程。经检验比较，新的形势预报方程高度距平正确和长波系统位置正确率分别提高了０．１５－０．２０和０．１０。