Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River

Abstract

One of the world's largest irrigation networks, based on the Indus River system in Pakistan, faces serious scarcity of water in one season and disastrous floods in another. The system is dominated both by monsoon and by snow and glacier dynamics, which confer strong seasonal and inter-annual variability. In this paper two different forecasting methods are utilized to analyse the long-term seasonal behaviour of the Indus River. The study also assesses whether the strong seasonal behaviour is dominated by the presence of low-dimensional nonlinear dynamics, or whether the periodic behaviour is simply immersed in random fluctuations. Forecasts obtained by nonlinear prediction (NLP) and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) methods show that the performance of NLP is relatively better than the SARIMA method. This, along with the low values of the correlation dimension, is indicative of low-dimensional nonlinear behaviour of the hydrological dynamics. A relatively better performance of NLP, using an inverse technique, may also be indicative of the low-dimensional behaviour. Moreover, the embedding dimension of the best NLP forecasts is in good agreement with the estimated correlation dimension. This provides evidence that the nonlinearity inherent in the monthly river flow due to the snowmelt and the monsoon variations dominate over the high-dimensional components and might be exploited for prediction and modelling of the complex hydrological system.

Citation Hassan, S. A. & Ansari, M. R. K. (2010) Nonlinear analysis of seasonality and stochasticity of the Indus River. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(2), 250–265.     

The structure of urban space, movement and co-presence: The case of Atlanta

Urban areas in Atlanta are analyzed using a computer based technique known as ‘space syntax’ to reveal an underlying systematic and consistent relationship between pedestrian or vehicular movement and spatial configuration. This provides a framework for discussing how far different urban morphologies are characterized by similar regular patterns; how design choices can affect the social use of space; and how methodological and theoretical issues, such as the study of the effects of scale, can be formulated with greater clarity.     

Rapid analysis of risk assessment using developed simulation of chemical industrial accidents software package

The environmental consequences are defined as consequences of accidental release of hazardous substances to the natural environment. This release can lead to many hazards depending on the material stored. The consequences of these hazards to the environment are widespread and have significant importance to human communities living in the surroundings. The mathematical models are extremely useful tools to predict the impacts of chemical process accidents. The objective of this paper is to develop a software package for accident simulation and damage potential estimation. The software is coded in visual basic and is compatible with windows working environments. The software is called Simulation of chemical industrial accident. This application is a comprehensive software package which can be integrated with geographical information system to predict and display the consequence of chemical hazards. The software is a user-friendly and effective tool for evaluating the consequences of major chemical accidents, process decision making for land-use planning, namely locating suitable hazardous installations, hazardous waste disposal areas and emergency response plan.     

Marine ecosystem variability and human community responses: The example of Ghana,West Africa

This study describes variability in the marine ecosystem of Ghana, West Africa, on several temporal and spatial scales and discusses how the human communities using this ecosystem respond to this variability to cope socially and economically. Ghanaian marine waters are part of an upwelling system with strong seasonal and inter-annual variability. Much of this variability is forced at large spatial scales in the tropical Atlantic and by El Niño—Southern Oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean, which influence inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature and pelagic fish landings off Ghana. At decadal scales, Ghanaian marine waters experienced cool sea temperatures and low fishery landings during the 1960s, rapid warming and increases in fishery landings during the late 1970s and 1980s, and variable temperatures and fishery landings during the 1990s. In the late 1990s, pelagic and demersal fish populations appeared to be declining, partly due to over-fishing, although the per capita supply (domestic production plus net imports) of fish was kept high by increased imports. Artisanal fishers and fishing communities in Ghana have devised strategies to deal with variability on seasonal and inter-annual scales. These livelihood strategies include: (i) exploiting marine and terrestrial natural resources more intensively, initially at local scales but expanding to regional scales; (ii) ensuring multiple and diversified income sources; (iii) investing in social relationships and communities for support; and (iv) undertaking seasonal or permanent migrations. In addition, the national government imports fish to deal with shortages. However, these strategies may be less adapted to variability at decadal scales, and may not be sustainable when viewed at the larger scales of environmental change.     

Effect of foliation orientation on the P- and S-wave velocity anisotropies and dynamic elastic constants of the quartz-micaschists metamorphic rocks,Angouran mine,Iran

Laboratory measurements are required to study geophysical properties of the subsurface because of lacking direct observation of Earth’s crust. In this research, compressional (P) and shear (S) wave velocity measurements have been conducted on cylindrical specimens of Quartz-micaschist cored using rock blocks taken from the zinc and lead Angouran mine, Zanjan, northwest of Iran. Cylindrical rock specimens were prepared from the blocks by coring in 0°, 30°, 45°, 60°, and 90° into the foliation direction. P- and S-wave velocities were measured along the cylindrical specimens with different foliation orientations. Percent variations of the P- and S-wave velocities (Thomsen’s anisotropic parameters ε and γ) and constant dynamic modulus of test results have been determined. Percent variations of the P-wave velocity (ε) increase with an increase of the foliation angle with respect to the propagating waves direction by a parabolic function as it shows P-wave velocity differences up to a maximum value of 50 %. Thomsen’s anisotropic parameter of γ has also the same function with the foliation angle. Meanwhile, foliation orientation has a much greater influence on ε than γ for foliation angle from 45° to 90° as \( \frac{\varepsilon }{\gamma } \) ratio increases with an increase of foliation angle. Values of dynamic elastic modulus (E), Poisson’s ratio (ν), shear modulus (μ), bulk modulus (K), and Lamé’s constant (λ) increase with the increase of foliation angle with the parabolic function. The results show that dynamic elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio, shear modulus, bulk modulus, and Lamé’s constant have anisotropic behavior in relation with the foliation orientation.     

Hydrogeological environment and groundwater occurrences of the alluvial aquifers in parts of the Central Ganga Plain, Uttar Pradesh, India

A detailed hydrogeological investigation was carried out in parts of the Central Ganga Plain, India, with the objective of assessing the aquifer framework and its resource potential. The area was studied because of its dual hydrogeological situation, that is water logging and soil salinization in the canal command areas and depletion of aquifers in the western part of the basin. A comprehensive investigation of the aquifer system between the Ganga River and Kali River revealed its lateral and vertical dimensions and hydrogeological characteristics. Moreover, study of the groundwater occurrences, movements and behaviour, in terms of water level fluctuation with time and space, confirms the coexistence of over exploitation as well as water logging in the area.

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Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at

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Resumen Una investigación hidrogeológica detallada se llevó a cabo en partes de la Llanura de Ganga Central, India, con el objetivo de evaluar la estructura del acuífero y su potencial del recurso. El área fue estudiada por su doble situación hidrogeológica, es decir la saturación con agua y salinización de suelos en las áreas dominadas por el canal y vaciamiento de acuíferos en el la parte occidental de la cuenca. Una investigación completa del sistema acuífero entre el Río Ganga y el Río Kali, reveló sus dimensiones verticales y laterales y las características hidrogeológicas. Además, los estudios sobre la ocurrencia del agua subterránea, sus movimientos y comportamiento, en lo que se refiere al nivel de agua, y a su fluctuación en el tiempo y el espacio, confirma la co-existencia en el área de sobre- explotación así como de saturación con agua.

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Résumé L'objectif de cette étude hydrogéologique détaillée de portions de la Plaine Centrale du Gange est de déreminer la structure aquifère et la ressource potentielle. L'intérêt de la zone repose sur sa dualité du point de vue hydrogéologique, les zones influencées par le canal présentent une remontée de la nappe avec une salinisation des sols, la portion Ouest du bassin présente une baisse du niveau des aquifères. Par cette étude, le système aquifère compris entre la rivière du Gange et la rivière Kali révèle ses dimensions latérales et verticales ainsi que ses caractéristiques hydrogéologiques. De plus, l'étude des événements, des mouvements et du régime hydrogéologique affectant le niveau phréatique confirme la co-existence de surexploitation et de saturation des sols dans la région.

     

Sustainable Improvement of Tropical Residual Soil Using an Environmentally Friendly Additive

Many tropical residual laterites have relatively poor engineering properties due to the significant percentage of fine-grained soil particles that they contain, which are formed by the soil weathering process. The widespread presence of laterite soils in tropical regions often requires that some form of soil improvement be performed to allow for their use in various civil engineering applications, such as for road base or subbase construction. One of the most commonly utilized stabilization techniques for laterite soils is the application of additives that chemically react with the minerals that are present in soil to enhance its overall strength; effective soil stabilization can allow for the use of site-specific soils, and can consequently result in significant cost savings for a given project. With an increasing focus on the use of more environmentally friendly and sustainable materials in the built and natural environments, there is an emerging interest in eco-friendly additives that are an alternative to traditional chemical stabilizers. The current study examines the viability of xanthan gum as an environmentally friendly stabilizer that can improve the engineering properties of tropical residual laterite soil. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) tests, standard direct shear tests, Brunauer, Emmett, and Teller (N₂-BET) surface area analysis tests and field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM) tests were used to investigate the effectiveness of xanthan gum for stabilization of a tropical laterite soil. The UCS test results showed that addition of 1.5% xanthan gum by weight yielded optimum stabilization, increasing the unconfined compressive strength of the laterite soil noticeably. Similarly, direct shear testing of 1.5% xanthan gum stabilized laterite specimens showed increasing Mohr–Coulomb shear strength parameters with increases in curing time. From the FESEM results, it was observed that the stabilization process modified the pore-network morphology of the laterite soil, while also forming new white layers on the surface of the clay particles. Analysis of the test results indicated that xanthan gum stabilization was effective for use on a tropical residual laterite soil, providing an eco-friendly and sustainable alternative to traditional soil stabilization additives such as cement or lime.     

The Deep Mixing Method: Bearing Capacity Studies

Nowadays, several techniques are employed to improve the problem of carrying out construction in soft soils by increasing the strength of the soil foundation and reducing the settlement of the soil. Among these stabilizing techniques, the deep mixing method is regarded as the most popular. The deep mixing method is a soil modification method where the soil is mixed in situ with stabilizing agents, commonly soil–cement columns. It increases the strength of the soil, providing bearing resistance and improved settlement performance. Deep mixing is carried out in situ using a machine equipped with mixing blades mounted at the end of a tube that has a nozzle at the lower end. The stabilizer agent is injected into the soil via the nozzle using a pumping system so that it mixes with the soil as the blades are rotated. Throughout this paper, previous works by numerous researchers on deep mixing including laboratory work, full-scale field tests, analytical and numerical analyses related to bearing capacity are reviewed. The techniques and results used are discussed with the help of figures depicting charts, failure modes, and the model configuration setup. It was found that the deep mixing method is suitable for use with any type of soil and provides a better alternative to the existing method of improving soft clay ground, especially with regard to the soil bearing capacity. In addition, future research is needed to improve the use of the method for soil improvement in the construction industry.     

Bearing capacity of sandy soil treated by Kenaf fibre geotextile

Bio-based materials are widely used recently in order to introduce a more sustainable construction material. Kenaf is a type of bio-based material that can be easily obtained in a tropical country, which could be a potential material to be utilised as a geotextile material because it has good tensile strength. The geotextile could be used to improve the bearing capacity of a loose soil. This paper presents a series of small-scale physical modelling tests to investigate the bearing capacity performance of Kenaf fibre geotextile laid on and inside the sand layer. A rigid footing was used to replicate a strip footing during the loading test, and sand was prepared based on 50% of relative density in a rigid testing chamber for ground model preparation. In order to treat the soil, Kenaf fibre geotextile was laid at four difference locations which are on the soil surface and underneath the ground model surface at 50, 75 and 100 mm deep. It was found that the usage of the Kenaf fibre geotextile has improved the bearing capacity of the sandy soil up to 414.9% as compared to untreated soil. It was also found that the depth of the Kenaf fibre geotextile treated into the soil also affects the soil performance.     

Observations of Antarctic precipitable water vapor and its response to the solar activity based on GPS sensing

Predicting global climate change is a great challenge and must be based on a thorough understanding of how the climate system components behave. Precipitable water vapor (PWV) is one of the key components in determining and predicting the global climate system. It is well known that the local surface temperature and pressure have a direct influence on the production of PWV. However, the influence of solar activity on atmospheric dynamics and their physical mechanisms is still an open debate, where past studies are focused at mid-latitude regions. A new method of determining and quantifying the solar influence on PWV based on GPS observations to correlate the GPS PWV and total electron content (TEC) variations is proposed. Observed data from Scott Base (SBA) and McMurdo (MCM) stations from 2003 to 2005 have been used to study the response of PWV to solar activity. In the analysis, the effects of local conditions (wind speed and relative humidity) on the distribution of PWV are investigated. Results show significant correlation between PWV and solar activity for four geomagnetic storms, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.77, 0.64 and 0.69, which are all significant at the 95% confidence level. There was no significant correlation between TEC and PWV changes during the absence of storms. On a monthly analysis, a strong relationship exists between PWV and TEC during storm-affected days, with correlation coefficients of 0.83 and 0.89 (99% confidence level) for SBA and MCM respectively. These indicate a statistically significant seasonal signal in the Antarctic region, which is very active (higher) during the summer and inactive (lower) for the winter periods.