一种利用GPS进行姿态估计的新算法

提出了一种基于向量化姿态矩阵的姿态解算方法,该方法顾及了观测量之间的相关性及姿态矩阵的正交性。首先将姿态矩阵作为未知参数的估计问题进行向量化,采用经典最小二乘得到无正交约束的姿态解,然后使用几何规则对姿态矩阵进行正交化。该方法不需要初值,不受天线个数及布局限制,在理论上具有广泛的适用性及更好的严密性。仿真结果表明,新的姿态解算方法可以提高GPS姿态解算精度。     

四川省都江堰市龙池地区泥石流危险性评价研究

汶川地震灾区震后泥石流灾害较震前活跃,对灾区泥石流危险性进行评价是灾后重建过程中合理防灾减灾的基础工作。通过研究泥石流灾害事件中的泥石流规模、泥石流沟堆积扇面积及相应的灾害损失等基础资料,提出以泥石流在泥石流沟堆积扇上的平均堆积厚度替代泥石流规模作为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法。用该方法对汶川震区都江堰市龙池镇龙溪河流域2010年"8.13"泥石流事件中的29条沟谷型泥石流进行危险性评价,评价结果中9条为高度危险,12条为中度危险,8条为低度危险。用以泥石流规模为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法进行对比评价,2种评价方法中有65.5%的泥石流的危险性评价结果一致。以泥石流沟堆积扇平均堆积厚度为主要危险因子的单沟泥石流危险性评价方法更能突出规模对泥石流综合危险度的贡献,能更好地反映小泥石流流域和小泥石流堆积扇的泥石流在中小规模的泥石流总量下的危险程度。     

南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具.现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的...     

Effects of precipitation and landuse on runoff during the past 50 years in a typical watershed in the Loess Plateau, China

In the past century, great progress has been made worldwide in our understanding of forest-water relationship. The successful forestation programs implemented in China-which have improved the ecological environmental conditions-have gained the attention of many researchers and highlighted the relationship between forestation and water yields. The arid and semi-arid Loess Plateau has received attention from water engineers and eco-hydrological researchers in China because of a shortage in water resources. We selected one of the oldest stations conducting soil and water conservation experiments, the Xifeng soil and water conservation station, and chose the Nanxiaohe catchment and its paired catchments （Yangjiagou catchment and Dongzhuanggou catchment） as our research areas. Trends in precipitation, air temperature, streamflow over the past 50 years, and the effect of changing land use on streamflow were analyzed. The Mann-Kendall test showed that precipitation had a negative trend （downward trend）, whereas air temperature showed a positive trend （upward trend） from the past to present in the Nanxiaohe catchment. However, the trends seen in precipitation, air temperature did not contain any ＂jumping points.＂ The paired catchment approach is used to detect the effects of land cover change on hydrology in the Yangjiagou and the contrast catchment, i.e., Dongzhuanggou catchment in our study. The results showed a large change in land use in the Yangjiagou catchment from 1954 to 2008. An increase in forested land （from 0% to 40.08% from 1954 to 2008） and a reduction of bare land （from 51.26% to 5.50% from 1954 to 2008） accounted for a large part of the change in land use. However, the land use changed little in the contrast catchment. The comparison of streamfiow in the paired catchments showed that forestation reduced streamflow by 49.63% （or 6.5 mm） each year.     

中尺度数值模式MM5V2评介

由于中尺度数值模式ＭＭ５Ｖ２本身的进步和目前能提供给中尺度数值模式的资料越来越多,使中尺度数值模式系统在灾害天气的预报方面成为一个重要的手段。从ＭＭ５Ｖ２的两大部分,模式初始化和预报模式出发,全面分析和总结中尺度数值模式的特点,并对中尺度数值模式未来发展做一些有益的探讨。     

Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ¹⁸O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.     

临沂中尺度数值预报系统及应用

介绍了临沂中尺度数值预报系统及预报产品的释用和模式系统应用雷达资料情况,并对2005年6~10月的业务运行结果进行了检验,对小雨和中雨预报效果较好,TS评分较高,对夜间温度预报平均值绝对误差在1.52~2.52℃之间,平均均方根误差在2.01~2.93℃之间。该系统降水预报质量较高,气温预报误差小,准确率高,对定时、定点、定量的精细化预报具有较高的参考价值。应用自主开发的SDAF软件包,对系统的预报产品进行释用,研制了暴雨、空气质量、极端气温、干热风等预报方法。将多普勒雷达回波强度加入模式,改变模式水汽场,明显改进了预报。对径向速度反演降水系统内部风场进入中尺度模式进行了初步试验,得出了一些有益结论。     

南极长城站海雾特征分析

本文根据对海雾气象要素场、大气层结和天气形势的分析及其持续时间和季节、年际变化的统计分析,结合个例,讨论了南极长城站海雾的特征和形成机制。认为长城站海雾大多为平流冷却雾,高频率的偏北风和南大洋极锋附近显著的经向海温梯度是长城站多海雾的根本原因;夏半年海雾要多于冬半年,海雾的年际分布差异明显;海雾可出现于0-17m/s的各级风力中,3-11m/s偏北风最有利于海雾的维持;气温为-2-4℃、气-海温差为0-2℃时最易出现海雾;海雾的发生一般伴有稳定的大气层结;"东高西低"是长城站海雾的主要天气形势;海雾的持续时间取决于高压在南极半岛维持时间的长短,平均有10个小时。     

中国火成岩化学元素的丰度与分布

在中国各构造单元构选采了１０３６４件火成岩样品合成１１３１个分析样，采用仪器中子活化法，Ｘ射线荧光光谱法，原子吸收法，原子荧光光谱法，催化波极谱法和分光光度法等１５种可靠分析方法进行测试，对一些难测痕量元素采用了最新的分析研究成果，以同类国家一级标准物质监控分析质量。     

济阳坳陷南部横向变换带构造演化及其油气聚集规律

利用高精度三维地震资料解释成果,分析了济阳坳陷南部中、新生代不同构造运动期与多位态主断裂(系)相伴生的横向变换带特征。研究表明,印支运动期横向变换带为NNE向展布,由侧向挤压褶皱和侧断坡组成;燕山运动期横向变换带走向为NEE向,由传递断层和横向凸起构成;而喜马拉雅运动期横向变换带则表现为NW向,由走向斜坡和传递断层组成。横向变换带构造演化使其不同构造部位具有叠加与迁移演化的差异性变化,从而形成不同的构造背景,造成了油气的差异聚集,其中变换带叠加可形成复式油气聚集带,变换带迁移则造成"满洼含油"的油气分布格局。