关于台风风场研究进展的若干问题探讨

台风是对我国造成严重危害的中尺度天气系统,随着沿海地区经济的发展以及越来越多的海洋开发工程的进行,对台风的研究也日益受到重视。本文从台风的观测、理论和数值研究几个方面综合分析了台风研究中的若干问题,并对现阶段存在的问题进行了讨论。     

湖泊富营养化综合评价方法

从对湖泊富营养化评价的一般方法入手,综述了国内外有关湖泊富养化综合评价的一些方法,提出：营养状态指数法由于可对湖泊营养状态进行连续的数值化的分级,从而为湖泊富营养化机理的定量研究提供了坚实的基础,应是今后湖泊富营养化评价中的主要方法。     

全球气候变化下海洋环流多尺度演变：联动协同与环境生态效应初探

海洋环流是海洋系统物质能量收支、配置、平衡、维持和变化的关键通道与机制。从全球海洋视角,基于目前海洋环流多变率动力过程与趋势演变的认知,重点综述气候变化下海洋环流的海盆尺度三维联动特征机制、洋际交换与协同、世界大洋经向输运变化以及相关的海洋气候与环境生态效应,依据研究现状和需求,提出研究建议。结果表明：全球一致性变暖路径与进程调控下,受驱动因子的演变与胁迫,海洋环流变化对副热带中高纬地区年际、年代际气候与环境变迁具有突出作用影响,并可产生显著环境生态效应和严重致灾风险。建议加大专精特新观测仪器自主研发,通过国际合作加大中高纬海洋环流多尺度动力过程综合调查的参与度和主导性,增强多学科融合交叉研究力度,有效提升深层次海洋环流变异及动力、环境、生态灾害影响的气候变化综合风险预测预评估和防治能力,为海洋领域能源开发、生态系统保护、气候变化应对与灾害风险治理提供必要的动力学参考。     

印度洋热力分异与洋际协同对中国气候的影响及关键灾害风险初探

印度洋是泛第三极海陆气系统的重要成员,同时是全面顺利推进“21世纪海上丝绸之路”建设的关键海域,其热力状况严重影响亚洲季风变异及我国和全球的气候变化。文章从印度洋热力异常的模态分型、中小尺度关联、海气相互作用过程、洋际协同效应以及对我国气候环境的关键影响风险等角度进行分析探讨,并针对研究现状和不足提出研究建议。结果表明：印度洋热力分异与跨区域多源、多尺度交互胁迫对我国东部季风气候与环境生态具有重要协同调控作用和高致灾风险。建议通过国际合作开展海洋全要素过程综合调查,夯实印度洋多维度系统观测体系,突出印度洋中小尺度动力过程研究,深化跨界面多尺度过程相互作用、影响和适应有关的耦合机理、联合影响、协同效应气候诊断分析,明确作用隶属和通道机制;发展大数据诊断人工智能和机器学习自适应自组织新方法与数字孪生新技术,丰富中小尺度理论和建模研发,提高我国季风气候和海洋环境变化及其极端灾害研究与预测水平,服务于关键风险预估和等级区划以及灾害精准防治,为“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的气候与海洋环境安全保障及我国防灾减灾与风险治理提供必要科学参考和科技支撑。     

南极长城站海雾形成的气候背景及天气形势分析

基于长城站气象观测数据和NCEP再分析资料,分析研究了长城站海雾的发生背景和天气形势。认为长城站海雾的季节性变化是大气环流、地面气压场变化的结果;长城站海雾形成的天气形势基本可分为低压锋前型、鞍型场型和弱气旋过境型3类,其中低压锋前型是长城站海雾形成的主要天气形势。长城站以平流冷却雾为主,也存在其它类型的雾。本文从天气学角度分析了长城站海雾发生的原因,为该地区的海雾预报提供了依据。     

中蒙边界地区汇水域沉积物69种元素的背景值

中蒙边界地区成矿地质条件优越,是世界上重要的金属成矿省和全球3大斑岩型铜(金、钼)成矿带之一,资源潜力巨大。中蒙合作1∶100万地球化学填图采集了海量的地球化学数据,为研究该地区元素分散富集、成矿趋势、资源评价和环境变化提供基础数据,为“一带一路”资源布局提供决策依据。以X±3S为临界值一次性剔除离群值后的数据集的中位值作为背景值的估计值,计算了中蒙边界地区12个Ⅱ级构造单元和5个Ⅱ级成矿省的汇水域沉积物69种元素背景值,探讨了中蒙边界地区汇水域沉积物69种元素背景值的区域分布规律和特征。研究表明不同的地质背景导致元素的地球化学分布模式不同,不同构造单元具有显著差异的元素地球化学特征,元素的海量聚集为大型矿床的形成提供了充足的元素供给,形成特定的地球化学省。这些背景值为进一步深入开发利用中蒙边界地球化学填图数据提供了可供对比的基础数据。     

Analysis and comparison of heat flux of landfast ice during 2016 in the Prydz Bay,Antarctica

Long term in situ atmospheric observation of the landfast ice nearby Zhongshan Station in the Prydz Bay was performed from April to November 2016. The in situ observation, including the conventional meteorological elements and turbulent flux, enabled this study to evaluate the sea ice surface energy budget process. Using in situ observations, three different reanalysis datasets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-analysis(ERA-Interim), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis2(NCEP R2), and Japanese 55-year Reanalysis(JRA55), and the Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE, output for surface fluxes were evaluated. The observed sensible heat flux(SH) and net longwave radiation showed seasonal variation with increasing temperature. Air temperature rose from the middle of October as the solar elevation angle increased.The ice surface lost more energy by outgoing longwave radiation as temperature increased, while the shortwave radiation showed obvious increases from the middle of October. The oceanic heat flux demonstrated seasonal variation and decreased with time, where the average values were 21 W/m~2 and 11 W/m~2, before and after August,respectively. The comparisons with in situ observations show that, SH and LE(latent heat flux) of JRA55 dataset had the smallest bias and mean absolute error(MAE), and those of NCEP R2 data show the largest differences.The ERA-Interim dataset had the highest spatial resolution, but performance was modest with bias and MAE between JRA55 and NCEP R2 compare with in situ observation. The CICE results(SH and LE) were consistent with the observed data but did not demonstrate the amplitude of inner seasonal variation. The comparison revealed better shortwave and longwave radiation stimulation based on the ERA-Interim forcing in CICE than the radiation of ERA-Interim. The average sea ice temperature decreased in June and July and increased after September,which was similar to the temperature measured by buoys, with a bias and MAE of 0.9°C and 1.0°C, respectively.     

Polyaxial stress-dependent permeability of a three-dimensional fractured rock layer

A study about the influence of polyaxial (true-triaxial) stresses on the permeability of a three-dimensional (3D) fractured rock layer is presented. The 3D fracture system is constructed by extruding a two-dimensional (2D) outcrop pattern of a limestone bed that exhibits a ladder structure consisting of a “through-going” joint set abutted by later-stage short fractures. Geomechanical behaviour of the 3D fractured rock in response to in-situ stresses is modelled by the finite-discrete element method, which can capture the deformation of matrix blocks, variation of stress fields, reactivation of pre-existing rough fractures and propagation of new cracks. A series of numerical simulations is designed to load the fractured rock using various polyaxial in-situ stresses and the stress-dependent flow properties are further calculated. The fractured layer tends to exhibit stronger flow localisation and higher equivalent permeability as the far-field stress ratio is increased and the stress field is rotated such that fractures are preferentially oriented for shearing. The shear dilation of pre-existing fractures has dominant effects on flow localisation in the system, while the propagation of new fractures has minor impacts. The role of the overburden stress suggests that the conventional 2D analysis that neglects the effect of the out-of-plane stress (perpendicular to the bedding interface) may provide indicative approximations but not fully capture the polyaxial stress-dependent fracture network behaviour. The results of this study have important implications for understanding the heterogeneous flow of geological fluids (e.g. groundwater, petroleum) in subsurface and upscaling permeability for large-scale assessments.     

BDS区域卫星导航系统空间信号精度评估

针对BDS区域卫星导航系统的空间信号精度评估问题,分析利用精密星历进行空间信号评估的算法以及SISURE的投影原理,讨论BDS不同星座的参数选择。估计BDS各个卫星的空间信号精度,估算出SISURE综合误差的平均值为1.54 m,与GPS的空间信号精度还存在一定差距。针对个别导航卫星某些分量误差偏大的情况进行分析,发现GEO卫星SISURE个别时段较差和轨道机动有一定关系,并明确了BDS实际的空间信号精度,可为BDS用户提供一定参考。