A new landslide-induced tsunami simulation model and its application to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama landslide-and-tsunami disaster

By combining landslide dynamics research and tsunami research, we present an integrated series of numerical models quantitatively simulating the complete evolution of a landslide-induced tsunami. The integrated model simulating the landslide initiation and motion uses measured landslide dynamic parameters from a high-stress undrained dynamic-loading ring shear apparatus. It provides the numerical data of a landslide mass entering and moving under water to the tsunami simulation model as the trigger of tsunami. The series of landslide and tsunami simulation models were applied to the 1792 Unzen-Mayuyama megaslide and the ensuing tsunami disaster, which is the largest landslide disaster, the largest volcanic disaster, and the largest landslide-induced tsunami disaster to have occurred in Japan. Both the 1792 megaslide and the tsunami portions of the disaster are well documented, making this an excellent test of the reliability and precision of the new simulation model. The simulated tsunami heights at the coasts well match the historical tsunami heights recorded by “Tsunami-Dome-Ishi” (a stone showing the tsunami reaching point) and memorial stone pillars.     

Destructive near-fault strong ground motion from the 2016 Kumamoto prefecture,Japan, M7.3 earthquake

The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, which included an initial M6.5 foreshock on April 14, followed by a larger M7.3 mainshock on April 16, and subsequently occurred high aftershock activity, caused significant damage in Kumamoto and neighboring regions. The near-field strong motion record by strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and the intensity meter network demonstrated clearly the characteristics of the strong ground motion developed by the shallow (H = 12 km), inland earthquake comprising short-time duration (<15–20 s) but large (>1G) ground accelerations. The velocity response spectra of the near-fault motion at Mashiki and Nishihara showed large levels (>300–550 cm/s) in the short-period range (T = 1–2 s), several times larger than that of the near-field record of the destructive 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.3) and that of the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake (M6.8). This period corresponds to the collapse vulnerability of Japanese wooden-frame houses, and is the major cause of severe damage during the Kumamoto earthquake. The response spectra also showed extremely large levels (>240–340 cm/s) in the long-period (T > 3 s) band, which is potentially disastrous for high-rise buildings, large oil storage tanks, etc. to have longer resonant period. Such long-period motion was, for the most parts, developed by the static displacement of the fault movement rather than by the seismic waves radiating from the source fault. Thus, the extreme near-fault long-period motion was hazardous only close to the fault but it attenuated very rapidly away from the fault.     

Two-dimensional landslide dynamic simulation based on a velocity-weakening friction law

Surprisingly, hypermobility (high velocity and long run-out) is a remarkable feature of large landslides and is still poorly understood. In this paper, a velocity-weakening friction law is incorporated into a depth-averaged landslide model for explaining the higher mobility mechanism of landslides. In order to improve the precision of the calculation, a coupled numerical method based on the finite volume method is proposed to solve the model equations. Finally, several numerical tests are performed to verify the stability of the algorithm and reliability of the model. The comparison between numerical results and experimental data indicates that the presented model can predict the movement of landslide accurately. Considering the effect of velocity-weakening friction law, the presented model can better reflect the hypermobility of landslide than the conventional Mohr–Coulomb friction model. This work shows that the application of a universal velocity-weakening friction law is effective in describing the hypermobility of landslide and predicting the extent of landslides.     

Undrained creep failure of a drainage canal slope stabilized with deep cement mixing columns

This paper presents an analysis of the slope failure of a Suvarnabhumi drainage canal during construction. The Suvarnabhumi drainage canal project includes a large drainage canal with a road on both sides. The width of the bottom of the drainage canal is 48.0 m, the depth of the drainage canal is 3.0 m, and the length of the drainage canal is 10.5 km. Because the project was constructed on very soft Bangkok clay, deep cement mixing (DCM) columns were employed to increase the stability of the excavated canal. The failure of the drainage canal slope occurred 25 days after the end of excavation. The field monitoring data show that lateral movement of the canal slope continuously increased with time, which caused failure due to the instability of the canal slope. The time-dependent deformation and undrained creep behavior of very soft clay was suspected to be the cause of the canal failure. A laboratory investigation of undrained creep behavior and a finite element analysis (FEA) using the soft soil creep (SSC) model were performed to confirm the causes of the canal failure. The results indicate that very soft clay specimens that are subjected to deviator creep stress levels of 70 and 100 % of the peak strength failed by creep rupture within 60 days and 8 min, respectively. The factor of safety for the canal slope, which was obtained from the FEA, shows significant reduction from the initial value of 1.710 to 1.045 within 24 days after the end of excavation due to the effect of undrained creep. This paper also describes a solution method that is applied to a new section of the canal. Field monitoring and an FEA of the new trial section were performed to prove the effectiveness of the solution method.     

Landslide and debris flow initiated characteristics after typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring.     

Risk management study on impulse waves generated by Hongyanzi landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir of China on June 24, 2015

On June 24, 2015, Hongyanzi slope located in Wushan County of the Three Gorges Reservoir collapsed, generating 5–6-m-high impulse waves, which overturned 13 boats, killed 2 persons, and injured 4 persons. It is the second incident of landslide-generated impulse waves since the 175-m experimental impoundment in 2008. The emergency investigation shows that Hongyanzi landslide is a bedding soil landslide with a volume of 23?×?10⁴ m³ induced by a series of triggering factors such as rainfall, flooding upstream, and reservoir drawdown. The nonlinear Boussinesq water wave model is used to reproduce the impulse waves generated by the landslide of June 24th. The numerical simulation results suggest that the wave propagation process was influenced by the T-shaped geomorphic conditions of river valley, and the coastal areas in the county seat were the major wave-affected areas, which is opposite to the landslide. The numerical wave process accord well with the observed incident, and the investigation values were in good agreement with the calculated values. Moreover, the worst-case scenario of the 7?×?10⁴ m³ deformation mass beside Hongyanzi landslide is potential to generate impulse waves, which was predicted with the same numerical model. This adjacent deformation mass will probably generate impulse waves with maximum height and run-up of 2.2 and 2.0 m, respectively, and only a very few areas in the water course had waves rising to a height of 1 m or above. The research results provide a technical basis for emergency disposal to Hongyanzi landslide and navigation restriction in Wushan waterway. More importantly, it pushes the risk management of the navigation based on the impulse wave generated by landslide. It is advised that the Three Gorges Reservoir and other reservoirs around the world should put more efforts in performing special surveys and studies on the potential hazards associated with landslide-generated impulse waves.     

Comprehensive analyses of the initiation and landslide-generated wave processes of the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir,China

Reservoir landslides pose a great threat to shipping safety, human lives and properties, and the operation of the hydropower station. In this paper, the 24 June 2015 Hongyanzi landslide at the Three Gorges Reservoir is considered as an example to study the initiation mechanism and landslide-generated wave process of a reservoir landslide. The finite difference method and limit equilibrium analysis are used to analyze the deformation and failure characteristics of the Hongyanzi slope. Simulation results show that a large deformation (about 358 mm) happens in the shallow deposits under intermittent rainfall condition, and the slope is in a limit state. At the same time, continuous rapid drawdown of the water level (about ?0.55 m/day during 8–24 June 2015) reduced the support and accelerated the drainage of the water for the bank slope. A coupling effect of intermittent rainfall and rapid drawdown of the water level was the triggering factor of the 24 June Hongyanzi landslide. Landslide-generated wave process was simulated using a fluid–solid coupling method by integrating the general moving object collision model. Simulation results show that the landslide-generated wave is dominated by the impulse wave, which is generated by sliding masses entering the river with high speed. The maximum wave height is about 5.90 m, and the wave would decay gradually as it spreads because of friction and energy dissipation. To prevent reservoir landslides, the speed for the rising or drawdown of the water level should be controlled, and most importantly, rapid drawdown should be avoided.     

A robust debris-flow and GLOF risk management strategy for a data-scarce catchment in Santa Teresa,Peru

The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country.     

Seasonal Fisheries Changes in Low-Rainfall Mangrove Ecosystems of Iran

To determine the role of mangroves for fisheries in the arid region of the Persian Gulf, we investigated fish community structure and trophic diversity in intertidal creeks with and without mangroves. Fish community abundances and biomass were compared across habitats and seasons. To identify variations in overall community trophic niches among habitats and seasons, we measured niches with size-corrected standard ellipse areas (SEA_c) calculated from C and N stable isotope values. Although there was a slightly greater species richness occurred in mangrove creeks, we found a general similarity in the diversity patterns in creeks with and without mangroves. Also, there were no consistent differences in fish abundance or biomass for mangrove vs. non-mangrove fish collections. Community trophic diversity measured as SEA_c also showed no significant difference between mangrove and non-mangrove sites. Instead, strong seasonal patterns were observed in the fish assemblages. Winter samples had consistently higher fish abundance and biomass than summer samples. Winter SEA_c values were significantly higher, indicating that the fish community had a larger isotopic niche in winter than summer. Overall, we found that seasonality was much stronger than habitat in determining fish community structure and trophic diversity in the mangrove and non-mangrove ecosystems of Qeshm Island, Iran.     

Settlement-Size Larval Red Drum (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sciaenops ocellatus</Emphasis>) Respond to Estuarine Chemical Cues

Planktonic larvae combine directed swimming and functional sensory systems to locate benthic habitats. Some adult marine fishes use chemical cues for orientation to specific habitats, but olfactory function for estuarine fish larvae has received little research attention. This laboratory study quantified behavioral responses of red drum (Sciaenops ocellatus) larvae to estuarine chemical cues to examine the role of water chemistry as an orientation cue for locating or remaining in settlement habitat. Spontaneous activity (kinesis) was measured for pre-settlement-size larvae exposed to artificial sea water (as a negative control) and one of six treatments (sterilized sea water, sea water from a channel at ebb tide, sea water from a channel at flood tide, sea water from seagrass habitat, tannic acid dissolved in sterilized sea water, or lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water). Larvae that reached a size of competency to settle (approximately 10 mm standard length) swam faster when exposed to lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water than in other treatments; smaller larvae showed no response. Olfactory preference (taxis) was tested using a paired-choice experiment. Settlement-size larvae preferred water from seagrass beds to artificial sea water. The observed chemokinesis and chemotaxis in response to lignin dissolved in sterilized sea water and sea water from a seagrass bed demonstrate that red drum larvae can distinguish and respond to different water masses and suggest that chemical stimuli from seagrass settlement habitat may aid in orientation and movement to or retention in suitable settlement sites.