领导人才资源开发经营的实践与思考

人才资源是第一资源，谁拥有人才优势，谁就能抢占事业发展的制高点，因此，对人才资源开发与经营的效益要远远大于对其他资源开发的效益。对山西省气象局近几年来领导人才资源开发与经营的实践进行了详细的探讨和总结，指出领导人才资源开发与经营的基础环节是造拔优势年轻人才，中介环节是创新人才选拔机制，关键环节是优化配置人才资源。     

用逐步回归预测棉铃虫发生期和发生量

收集了1973年至2000年的气象，农作物、棉铃虫虫害等196年因子，以运城、汾阳和临汾为山西省代表站，利用最优二分割法把发生量分为10级，5级和不分级3种情况；使用逐步回归计算了219个模型，从中选出27个棉铃虫二、三代发生期，发生量最优模型，在农气服务中应用，预报准确率为95％，效果良好。     

近百年中国东部夏季降水的时空变率

利用中国东部25°N以北28个站1880-1999年夏季季降水序列,用旋转复经验正交函数（RCEOF）方法,研究了中国东部地区百年干湿的时空演变规律。结果表明,夏季降水空间变率大值区依次为:长江中下游地区、淮河流域、江南、华北、西南及东北。除西南外的5个关键区大体上反映了从6月到8月夏季雨带自南向北椎进所滞留的地区。旋转空间位相分布揭示了长江中下游地区、江南、东北的旱涝异常主要表现为驻波振动特征;而淮河流域、华北、西南地区显示出降水异常信号具有部分的行波特征。尤其第4空间模显示出旱涝异常信号从东北南部可沿着黄淮下游传到长江下游地区。对于近百年中国东部地区夏季于湿变化,长江中下游地区、淮河流域、华北及东北四个地区都存在20-25年时间尺度的周期振荡;长江中下游地区及华北地区都存在准60年时间尺度的振荡周期;东北地区主要表现出36年时间尺度的振荡周期;淮河流域存在明显的70-80年时间尺度的振荡周期;华北地区存在的11年时间尺度的振荡周期恰好与太阳黑子活动的11年周期相一致。在年代际时间尺度（包括次年代际时间尺度）上,长江中下游、淮河流域及华北地区的夏季降水的变化与太阳活动有显著的正相关。     

An algorithm for determination of aerosol opticalthickness from AVHRR imagery over oceans

Summary The uncertainty in aerosol size distributions is a main source of errors in aerosol optical thickness determined from satellite measurements. To reduce the errors resulting from the uncertainty in aerosol size distributions, we have performed sensitivity analyses. It is found the errors resulting from the uncertainty in aerosol size distribution can be considerably reduced by using the Junge power law to approximate the aerosol size distribution in an actual atmosphere, if the exponent value is determined at the same time. An iterative algorithm is then developed for the simultaneous determination of aerosol optical thickness and the exponent of the Junge power law over ocean areas from the upwelling radiances measured in AVHRR visible and near infrared channels. A number of numerical experiments are carried out to investigate the validity of the Junge power law approximation by assuming the aerosol size distributions in an actual atmosphere are bimodal with different mode parameters, and by using the actual aerosol size distributions determined at several places by Kaufman et al. (1994). The results show that the errors in determined aerosol optical thickness resulting from the Junge power law approach are significantly reduced. The iterative algorithm is investigated further by comparing the aerosol optical thickness deduced from satellite measurement with that observed by a sun photometer. Received October 10, 2001 Revised December 28, 2001     

Simulation of the east asian summer monsoon using a variable resolution atmospheric GCM

The East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) is simulated with a variable resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) developed at the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, France. The version used has a local zoom centered on China. This study validates the model's capability in reproducing the fundamental features of the EASM. The monsoon behaviors over East Asia revealed by the ECMWF reanalysis data are also addressed systematically, providing as observational evidence. The mean state of the EASM is generally portrayed well in the model, including the large-scale monsoon airflows, the monsoonal meridional circulation, the cross-equatorial low-level jets, the monsoon trough in the South China Sea, the surface cold high in Australia, and the upper-level northeasterly return flow. While the performance of simulating large-scale monsoonal climate is encouraging, the model's main deficiency lies in the rainfall. The marked rainbelt observed along the Yangtze River Valley is missed in the simulation. This is due to the weakly reproduced monsoonal components in essence and is directly related to the weak western Pacific subtropical high, which leads to a fragile subtropical southwest monsoon on its western flank and results in a weaker convergence of the southwest monsoon flow with the midlatitude westerlies. The excessively westward extension of the high, together with the distorted Indian low, also makes the contribution of the tropical southwest monsoon to the moisture convergence over the Yangtze River Valley too weak in the model. The insufficient plateau heating and the resulting weak land-sea thermal contrast are responsible for the weakly reproduced monsoon. It is the deficiency of the model in handling the low-level cloud cover over the plateau rather than the horizontal resolution and the associated depiction of plateau topography that results in the insufficient plateau heating. Comparison with the simulation employing regular coarser mesh model reveals that the local zoom technique improves, in a general manner, the EASM simulation.     

四平地区生态地质环境的研究

通过对四平地区生态地质环境的调查，对该区水、土壤、大气、区域稳定性、生态资源、地层条件、放射性、矿藏、地方病、旅游地质及垃圾等进行环境现状综合评价。利用ISODATA模糊聚类分析法对该区的生态地质环境质量进行了分区。并利用面积加权法计算出该区的生态地质环境质量评价结果为中上等水平。     

离散裂隙渗流方法与裂隙化渗透介质建模

流体渗流模拟的连续介质方法通常适用于多孔地质体，并不一定适用于裂隙岩体，由于裂隙分布及其特征与孔隙差异较大。若流体渗流主要受裂隙的控制，对于一定尺寸的裂隙岩体，多孔介质假设则较难刻划裂隙岩体的渗流特征。离散裂隙渗流方法不但可直接用于模拟裂隙岩体非均质性和各向异性等渗流特征，而且可用其确定所研究的裂隙岩体典型单元体及其水力传导（渗透）张量大小。主要讨论了以下问题：（1）饱和裂隙介质中一般的离散流体渗流模拟；（2）裂隙岩体中的REV（典型单元体）及其水力传导（渗透）张量的确定；（3）利用离散裂隙网络流体渗流模型研究裂隙方向几何参数对水力传导系数和REV的影响；（4）在二维和三维离散裂隙流体渗流模型中对区域大裂隙和局部小裂隙的处理方法。调查结果显示离散裂隙流体渗流数学模型可用来评价不同尺度上的裂隙岩体的水力特征，以及裂隙方向对裂隙化岩体的水力特征有着不可忽视的影响。同时，局部小裂隙、区域大裂隙应当区别对待，以便据其所起的作用及水力特征，建立裂隙化岩体相应的流体渗流模型。     

低温电镀孕镶金刚石石油取心钻头研制与应用

该钻头用于坚硬地层取心。河南油田以往常用园柱聚晶、三角聚晶钻头以及烧结孕镶金刚石钻头，取心效率低、钻速慢、成本高。近两年采用低温电镀孕镶金刚石钻头取心后，平均单筒进尺由原来的4．20m／筒提高到7．62m/筒，平均取心机械钻速由原来的0．21m/h提高到的0.84m/h。该钻头生产工艺完全改变原来高温（1000℃以上）烧结为低温（室温）电镀工艺，极大地避免了金刚石热损伤，采用高强度大颗粒的金刚石，提高了取心机械钻速。     

华北克拉通北部内、外缘中生代流体成矿作用研究--以大井、蔡家营典型矿床为例

华北克拉通北部内、外缘中生代形成的有色金属矿种繁多 ,以外缘富 Sn、内缘富 Mo,Cu、Pb、 Zn遍布内、外缘为主要特色。通过内、外缘典型矿床的研究和综合对比 ,认为外缘的富 Sn是与富 Sn的基底有关 ,内缘的富 Mo是与结晶基底地层和岩浆热液关系密切。而内、外缘 Cu、 Pb、 Zn的成矿与中生代构造转折 ,造成大规模陆相火山活动和成矿流体的卸载密切相关     

农牧交错带典型区农业与牧业用地互动关系研究

利用1989年和2000年的两期Landsat-TM数据和相关的统计资料以及气候数据，应用转移距阵和多元回归分析等研究方法，对地处典型农牧交错带地区的兴和县土地利用变化进行研究，结果表明：农田和草地是研究区域中最主要的土地利用类型，Landsat-TM卫星影像数据和统计数据比较一致地反映农田和草地面积的变化；农田和草地的相互转换率在各种用地相互转化中非常剧烈；农业与牧业用地的互动特征具有明显的区域差异；农业和牧业用地的互动特点是自然因素和社会经济因素同时影响的结果。