Proximity of galactic civilizations

Approximate expressions are derived for the number of civilizations within a few tens of light years of each other since intelligent life first evolved in the Galaxy. The number is proportional to the square of the usual selectivity factors and to the first power of the longevity. Arguments are presented for expecting intelligent life in certain multiple star systems, and the number of coexistent civilizations in such systems is estimated.     

Precise orbit and baseline determination for maneuvering low earth orbiters

GPS Solutions - Orbital maneuvers are usually performed as needed for low earth orbiters to maintain a predefined trajectory or formation-flying configuration. To avoid unexpected discontinuities...     

Methodology and use of tensor invariants for satellite gravity gradiometry

Although its use is widespread in several other scientific disciplines, the theory of tensor invariants is only marginally adopted in gravity field modeling. We aim to close this gap by developing and applying the invariants approach for geopotential recovery. Gravitational tensor invariants are deduced from products of second-order derivatives of the gravitational potential. The benefit of the method presented arises from its independence of the gradiometer instrument’s orientation in space. Thus, we refrain from the classical methods for satellite gravity gradiometry analysis, i.e., in terms of individual gravity gradients, in favor of the alternative invariants approach. The invariants approach requires a tailored processing strategy. Firstly, the non-linear functionals with regard to the potential series expansion in spherical harmonics necessitates the linearization and iterative solution of the resulting least-squares problem. From the computational point of view, efficient linearization by means of perturbation theory has been adopted. It only requires the computation of reference gravity gradients. Secondly, the deduced pseudo-observations are composed of all the gravitational tensor elements, all of which require a comparable level of accuracy. Additionally, implementation of the invariants method for large data sets is a challenging task. We show the fundamentals of tensor invariants theory adapted to satellite gradiometry. With regard to the GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) satellite gradiometry mission, we demonstrate that the iterative parameter estimation process converges within only two iterations. Additionally, for the GOCE configuration, we show the invariants approach to be insensitive to the synthesis of unobserved gravity gradients.     

Glacial advances constrained by Be exposure dating of bedrock landslides, Kyrgyz Tien Shan

Numerous large landslide deposits occur in the Tien Shan, a tectonically active intraplate orogen in Central Asia. Yet their significance in Quaternary landscape evolution and natural hazard assessment remains unresolved due to the lack of "absolute" age constraints. Here we present the first ¹⁰Be exposure ages for three prominent (> 10⁷ m³) bedrock landslides that blocked major rivers and formed lakes, two of which subsequently breached, in the northern Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Three ¹⁰Be ages reveal that one landslide in the Alamyedin River occurred at 11–15 ka, which is consistent with two ¹⁴C ages of gastropod shells from reworked loess capping the landslide. One large landslide in Aksu River is among the oldest documented in semi-arid continental interiors, with a ¹⁰Be age of 63–67 ka. The Ukok River landslide deposit(s) yielded variable ¹⁰Be ages, which may result from multiple landslides, and inheritance of ¹⁰Be. Two ¹⁰Be ages of 8.2 and 5.9 ka suggest that one major landslide occurred in the early to mid-Holocene, followed by at least one other event between 1.5 and 0.4 ka. Judging from the regional glacial chronology, all three landslides have occurred between major regional glacial advances. Whereas Alamyedin and Ukok can be considered as postglacial in this context, Aksu is of interglacial age. None of the landslide deposits show traces of glacial erosion, hence their locations and ¹⁰Be ages mark maximum extents and minimum ages of glacial advances, respectively. Using toe-to-headwall altitude ratios of 0.4–0.5, we reconstruct minimum equilibrium-line altitudes that exceed previous estimates by as much as 400 m along the moister northern fringe of the Tien Shan. Our data show that deposits from large landslides can provide valuable spatio-temporal constraints for glacial advances in landscapes where moraines and glacial deposits have low preservation potential.     

Origin of fault domains and fault-domain boundaries (transfer zones and accommodation zones) in extensional provinces: Result of random nucleation and self-organized fault growth

In many extensional provinces, large normal faults dip in the same direction forming fault domains. Features variously named transfer faults, transfer zones, and accommodation zones (hereafter non-genetically referred to as fault-domain boundaries) separate adjacent fault domains. Experimental modeling of distributed extension provides insights on the origin, geometry, and evolution of these fault domains and fault-domain boundaries. In our scaled models, a homogeneous layer of wet clay or dry sand overlies a latex sheet that is stretched orthogonally or obliquely between two rigid sheets. Fault domains and fault-domain boundaries develop in all models in both map view and cross-section. The number, size, and arrangement of fault domains as well as the number and orientation of fault-domain boundaries are variable, even for models with identical boundary conditions. The fault-domain boundaries in our models differ profoundly from those in many published conceptual models of transfer/accommodation zones. In our models, fault-domain boundaries are broad zones of deformation (not discrete strike-slip or oblique-slip faults), their orientations are not systematically related to the extension direction, and they can form spontaneously without any prescribed pre-existing zones of weakness. We propose that fault domains develop because early-formed faults perturb the stress field, causing new nearby faults to dip in the same direction (self-organized growth). As extension continues, faults from adjacent fault domains propagate toward each another. Because opposite-dipping faults interfere with one another in the zone of overlap, the faults stop propagating. In this case, the geometry of the domain boundaries depends on the spatial arrangement of the earliest formed faults, a result of the random distribution of the largest flaws at which the faults nucleate.     

The electrical conductivity of Posidonia black shales — from magnetotelluric exploration to rock samples

We carried out a magnetotelluric field campaign in the South–East Lower Saxony Basin, Germany, with the main goal of testing this method for imaging regional Posidonia black shale sediments. Two‐dimensional inversion results of the magnetotelluric data show a series of conductive structures correlating with brine‐saturated sediments but also with deeper, anthracitic Westphalian/Namurian coals. None of these structures can be directly related with the Posidonia black shale, which appears to be generally resistive and therefore difficult to resolve with the magnetotelluric method. This assumption is supported by measurements of electrical resistivity on a set of Posidonia shale samples from the Hils syncline in the Lower Saxony basin. These rock samples were collected in shallow boreholes and show immature (0.53% Ro), oil (0.88% Ro), and gas (1.45% Ro) window thermal maturities. None of the black shale samples showed low electrical resistivity, particularly those with oil window maturity show resistivity exceeding 10⁴ Ωm. Moreover, we could not observe a direct correlation between maturity and electrical resistivity; the Harderode samples showed the highest resistivity, whereas the Haddessen samples showed the lowest. A similar trend has been seen for coals in different states of thermal maturation. Saturation of the samples with distilled and saline water solutions led to decreasing electrical resistivity. Moreover, a positive correlation of electrical resistivity with porosity is observed for the Wickensen and Harderode samples, which suggests that the electrical resistivity of the Posidonia black shale is mainly controlled by porosity.     

Evaluation of the Reduction in Uncertainty Obtained by Conditioning a 3D Stochastic Channel to Multiwell Pressure Data

A stochastic channel embedded in a background facies is conditioned to data observed at wells. The background facies is a fixed rectangular box. The model parameters consist of geometric parameters that describe the shape, size, and location of the channel, and permeability and porosity in the channel and nonchannel facies. We extend methodology previously developed to condition a stochastic channel to well-test pressure data, and well observations of the channel thickness and the depth of the top of the channel. The main objective of this work is to characterize the reduction in uncertainty in channel model parameters and predicted reservoir performance that can be achieved by conditioning to well-test pressure data at one or more wells. Multiple conditional realizations of the geometric parameters and rock properties are generated to evaluate the uncertainty in model parameters. The ensemble of predictions of reservoir performance generated from the suite of realizations provides a Monte Carlo estimate of the uncertainty in future performance predictions. In addition, we provide some insight on how prior variances, data measurement errors, and sensitivity coefficients interact to determine the reduction in model parameters obtained by conditioning to pressure data and examine the value of active and observation well data in resolving model parameters.     

Targeting carbon dioxide removal in the European Union

In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.

Key policy insights

• Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.

• Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.

• Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.

• A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.

     

The IRAS PSCz dipole

We use the PSC z IRAS galaxy redshift survey to analyse the cosmological galaxy dipole out to a distance of 300  h ¹ Mpc. The masked area is filled in three different ways, first by sampling the whole sky at random, secondly by using neighbouring areas to fill a masked region, and thirdly using a spherical harmonic analysis. The method of treatment of the mask is found to have a significant effect on the final calculated dipole.
The conversion from redshift space to real space is accomplished by using an analytical model of the cluster and void distribution, based on 88 nearby groups, 854 clusters and 163 voids, with some of the clusters and all of the voids found from the PSC z data base.
The dipole for the whole PSC z sample appears to have converged within a distance of 200  h ¹ Mpc and yields a value for , consistent with earlier determinations from IRAS samples by a variety of methods. For b =1, the 2 range for ₀ is 0.431.02.
The direction of the dipole is within 13° of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) dipole, the main uncertainty in direction being associated with the masked area behind the Galactic plane. The improbability of further major contributions to the dipole amplitude coming from volumes larger than those surveyed here means that the question of the origin of the CMB dipole is essentially resolved.     

Testing the fidelity of thermometers at ultrahigh temperatures

A highly residual granulite facies rock (sample RG07‐21) from Lunnyj Island in the Rauer Group, East Antarctica, presents an opportunity to compare different approaches to constraining peak temperature in high‐grade metamorphic rocks. Sample RG07‐21 is a coarse‐grained pelitic migmatite composed of abundant garnet and orthopyroxene along with quartz, biotite, cordierite, and plagioclase with accessory rutile, ilmenite, zircon, and monazite. The inferred sequence of mineral growth is consistent with a clockwise pressure–temperature (P–T) evolution when compared with a forward model (P–T pseudosection) for the whole‐rock chemical composition. Peak metamorphic conditions are estimated at 9 ± 0.5 kbar and 910 ± 50°C based on conventional Al‐in‐orthopyroxene thermobarometry, Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry, and calculated compositional isopleths. U–Pb ages from zircon rims and neocrystallized monazite grains yield ages of c. 514 Ma, suggesting that crystallization of both minerals occurred towards the end of the youngest pervasive metamorphic episode in the region known as the Prydz Tectonic Event. The rare earth element compositions of zircon and garnet are consistent with equilibrium growth of these minerals in the presence of melt. When comparing the thermometry methods used in this study, it is apparent that the Al‐in‐orthopyroxene thermobarometer provides the most reliable estimate of peak conditions. There is a strong textural correlation between the temperatures obtained using the Zr‐in‐rutile thermometer––maximum temperatures are recorded by a single rutile grain included within orthopyroxene, whereas other grains included in garnet, orthopyroxene, quartz, and biotite yield a range of temperatures down to 820°C. Ti‐in‐zircon thermometry returns significantly lower temperature estimates of 678–841°C. Estimates at the upper end of this range are consistent with growth of zircon from crystallizing melt at temperatures close to the elevated (H₂O undersaturated) solidus. Those estimates, significantly lower than the calculated temperature of this residual solidus, may reflect isolation of rutile from the effective equilibration volume leading to an activity of TiO₂ that is lower than the assumed value of unity.