Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor’s skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.     

EB-type contact binary do cas with a large temperature difference

NewUBV photoelectric observations of EB-type contact binary DO Cas were made on 4 nights from February 1986 to February 1987. The obtained light curves in combination with the radial-velocity curve of the primary published by Mannino (1958) of DO Cas have been solved simultaneously using the Wilson-Devinney synthesis code. The system is found to be a contact binary with a degree of overcontact of 14%. It may be concluded that DO Cas is an evolved contact binary.     

Combined analysis of electrical resistivity and geotechnical SPT blow counts for the safety assessment of fill dam

Electrical resistivity survey and the geotechnical SPT blow counts (N value) method were simultaneously analyzed to investigate the stability of a center-core type earth-fill dam against the seepage phenomenon. The coupling of these heterogeneous field methods provided a chance to understand the status of underground material by comparing the geophysical and geotechnical view. The analysis shows that the zones with low resistivity value generally have low N value, which means low stiffness. However, some zones with a high resistivity pattern are not accompanied by an increase of its N value, and are even showing a lower N value. These results imply that one should be careful to directly correlate resistivity value with the real status of the core material of a fill dam. And a highly resistive zone may be in poor status due to the effect of increase of resistivity value as a result of the piping condition. Additional laboratory tests show that there is a deficiency of fine soil particles believed as the clay at the troubled region, which means an increase in resistivity value. Therefore, multiple explorations should be planned to reduce the uncertainty in application of geophysical methods to dam safety evaluation in order to compensate the resistivity information of core material.     

Use of Lade's Single Surface Work-Hardening Model to Investigate Mechanical Behavior of Decomposed Soils

In this study, it was attempted to assess soil parameters necessary for Lade's single surface work-hardening model that reviewed the physical and mechanical properties of granite soil located in Korea based on the results of triaxial compression tests. In addition, finite element analyses coupled with the determined soil parameters as inputs were conducted based on Lade's single surface work-hardening model and the results were compared with element test results. It could be seen that, in predicting undrained mechanical behavior, the single surface model was reproducing the stress-strain relation obtained through element tests at high accuracy. It is worthwhile to inform that these differences in the initial loading stage and the impossibility to predict swelling behavior are caused by the fact that there is no prediction model for changes in shear properties, especially in dilatancy properties due to particle crushing occurring while element tests are conducted. Hence, it is concluded that, to expand the applicability of Lade's single surface work-hardening constitutive model to practical problems, the model should be modified in relation to the dilatancy of soils.     

An analytical model with three sub-regions for m2 tide in the yellow sea and the East China Sea

In this study an analytical tide model of uniform width with three sub-regions is presented. The three-subregions model takes into account step-like variations in depths in the direction of the channel as a way to examine the M₂ tide of the East China Sea (ECS) as well as the Yellow Sea (YS). A modified Proudman radiation condition has been applied at the northern open head, while the sea surface elevation is specified at the southern open boundary. It is seen that, due to the presence of an abrupt change in depth, co-amplitude lines of the M₂ tide are splitted to the east and west near the end of the ECS shelf region. Variations in depths, bottom friction and the open head boundary conditions all contribute to the determination of formation of amphidromes as well as overall patterns of M₂ tidal distribution. It is seen that increasing water depth and bottom friction in the ECS shelf results in the westward shift of the southern amphidrome. There is however no hint at all of the well-known degenerated tidal pattern being formed. It is inferred that a lateral variation of water depth has to be somehow incorporated to represent the tidal patterns in ECS in a realistic manner. Regarding the radiation factor introduced by Fang et al. (1991), use of a value larger than one, possibly with a phase shift, appears to be a proper way of incorporating the reflected waves from the northern Yellow Sea (NYS). Key words - analytical model, M₂ tide, Kelvin wave, Yellow Sea, East China Sea     

Diffraction of multidirectional random waves by multiple rectangular submarine pits

A numerical model is presented to predict the interaction of multidirectional random surface waves with one or more rectangular submarine pits. The water depth is assumed uniform and the method involves the superposition of diffraction solutions based on linearized shallow water wave theory obtained by a two-dimensional boundary integral approach. The incident wave conditions are specified using a discrete form of the Mitsuyasu directional spectrum. The present numerical model has been validated through comparisons with previous theoretical results for regular waves. Good agreement was obtained in all cases. Based on these comparisons it is concluded that the present numerical model is an accurate and efficient tool to predict the wave field around multiple submarine pits and navigation channels in many practical situations.     

Evaluation of typhoon‐induced rainfall using nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation and locally weighted polynomial regression

Typhoons in Korea are the major causes of natural disasters in the Korean peninsula. In this study, rainfall generated by typhoons was quantitatively analysed using various statistical methods. First, the frequency analysis of rainfall induced by typhoons was carried out to calculate the design rainfall. Second, the frequency analysis of simulated rainfall derived by nonparametric Monte Carlo simulation (NMCS) was performed to evaluate the uncertainty of rainfall caused by typhoons. Third, the regression relationship between the physical characteristic factors of typhoons and rainfall was established by locally weighted polynomial regression (LWPR), and the characteristic factors of typhoons were simulated. The simulated characteristic factors were then used to estimate rainfall and to calculate the design rainfall by typhoons. Comparative analyses of design rainfalls as estimated using various statistical methods were performed. The LWPR showed good performance in terms of reproducing typhoon characteristics. Therefore, the combined NMCS and LWPR method suggested in this study can be used as a supplementary technique for assessing extreme rainfall with climate change and reflected variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The value of updating ensemble streamflow prediction in reservoir operations

This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model using ESP scenarios updated three times a month were applied to the Geum River basin to measure the value of updated ESP for 21 years with 100 initial storage combinations. The results clearly demonstrate that updating the ESP scenario improves the accuracy of the forecasts and consequently their operational benefit. This study also proves that the accuracy of the ESP scenario, particularly when high flows occur, has a considerable effect on the reservoir operations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.