A shale gas revolution for China?

The question of whether China is on the verge of a ‘shale gas revolution’ is examined. This has potentially significant consequences for energy policy and climate change mitigation. Contrary to the optimistic reading of some commentators, it argues that various technological, environmental, political, regulatory and institutional factors will constrain the growth of China's shale gas market and that such a revolution might in any event have consequences that are at best mixed, at worst antithetical to climate change mitigation.Policy relevanceChina's reserves of unconventional gas have the potential to transform energy policy, as has occurred in the US, resulting in the substitution of shale gas for coal in the energy mix. Because gas emits only approximately half the GHG per unit as coal, such a move would have important implications for climate policy. However, substantial obstacles stand in the way of the ‘energy revolution’ that some policy analysts see China as embarking upon. The need to acknowledge these obstacles, particularly those relating to regulation and governance (and whether or to what extent they can be overcome), is an issue of profound importance to the future of climate and energy policy.     

Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries

Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.     

Social capital,individual responses to heat waves and climate change adaptation: An empirical study of two UK cities

It has been claimed that high social capital contributes to both positive public health outcomes and to climate change adaptation. Strong social networks have been said to support individuals and collective initiatives of adaptation and enhance resilience. As a result, there is an expectation that social capital could reduce vulnerability to risks from the impacts of climate change in the health sector. This paper examines evidence on the role social networks play in individuals’ responses to heat wave risk in a case study in the UK. Based on interviews with independently living elderly people and their primary social contacts in London and Norwich, we suggest that strong bonding networks could potentially exacerbate rather than reduce the vulnerability of elderly people to the effects of heat waves. Most respondents interviewed did not feel that heat waves posed a significant risk to them personally, and most said that they would be able to cope with hot weather. Bonding networks could perpetuate rather than challenge these narratives and therefore contribute to vulnerability rather than ameliorating it. These results suggest a complex rather than uniformly positive relationship between social capital, health and adaptation to climate change.     

Marine protected areas in Australia: Towards a coordinated rock lobster industry position

Plans by government to accelerate the establishment of a national representative system of marine protected areas (NRSMPAs) in Australia have caused increasing disquiet within the fishing industry. Rock lobster fishers have raised concerns regarding plans to establish large “multiple‐use” MPAs that may or may not contain a substantial no‐take component in the continental shelf waters adjacent to the coast. Key industry concerns including the potential impacts on present and future harvest rates are examined. The industry response to government MPA policy in each of the major jurisdictions is outlined. An industry position developed at the National Rock Lobster Congress in Perth, Western Australia (September 2003) is put forward. The position advocates the need for an adjustment scheme to account for displaced effort, the need for government commitment to the development of management plans that include the long‐term monitoring of all MPAs, and the need for a thorough risk assessment process to be conducted before the establishment of an MPA. The issues raised in this paper should be relevant to the establishment of MPAs in an international context.     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

The termination of the solar wind

It has previously been suggested that the solar wind might terminate at distances of 5 AU to 20 AU from the Sun, and that the solar wind might be drastically slowed down by charge exchange and photoionization of interstellar hydrogen atoms which approach the Sun. However, recent satellite measurements of resonantly scattered Lyman alpha radiation, together with pulsar dispersion and Faraday rotation measures, imply very small values for the interstellar hydrogen density (0.05 cm⁻³) and magnetic field strength (3 μG). As a result, the solar wind is not expected to be slowed down by more than about 30% inside the termination distance, which is expected to be about 100 AU.     

Equatorial Pacific gravity lineaments: interpretations with basement topography along seismic reflection lines

The central equatorial Pacific is interesting for studying clues to upper mantle processes, as the region lacks complicating effects of continental remnants or major volcanic plateaus. In particular, the most recently produced maps of the free-air gravity field from satellite altimetry show in greater detail the previously reported lineaments west of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) that are aligned with plate motion over the mantle and originally suggested to have formed from mantle convection rolls. In contrast, the gravity field 600 km or farther west of the EPR reveals lineaments with varied orientations. Some are also parallel with plate motion over the mantle but others are sub-parallel with fracture zones or have other orientations. This region is covered by pelagic sediments reaching ~?500–600 m thickness so bathymetry is not so useful for seeking evidence for plate deformation across the lineaments. We instead use depth to basement from three seismic reflection cruises. In some segments of these seismic data crossing the lineaments, we find that the co-variation between gravity and basement depth is roughly compatible with typical densities of basement rocks (basalt, gabbro or mantle), as expected for some explanations for the lineaments (e.g., mantle convection rolls, viscous asthenospheric inter-fingering or extensional deformation). However, some other lineaments are associated with major changes in basement depth with only subtle changes in the gravity field, suggesting topography that is locally supported by varied crustal thickness. Overall, the multiple gravity lineament orientations suggest that they have multiple origins. In particular, we propose that a further asthenospheric inter-fingering instability mechanism could occur from pressure variations in the asthenosphere arising from regional topography and such a mechanism may explain some obliquely oriented gravity lineaments that have no other obvious origin.     

Dives into outer Coronado Canyon System

Dives in Lockheed's submarine “Deep Quest” followed the floor of the fan valley and outer gorge of Coronado Canyon, southwest of the California—Baja California border. Both the fan valley and outer gorge have meandering courses. Basin depressions and intermittent steep descents characterize the outer gorge. No indications were found of recent activity of turbidity currents at either location, but a sand layer 30 cm below the surface is interpreted as related to a lower stand of sea level at the close of the last ice age. Abundant organisms were seen on the valley floor and in the overlying water.     

Age verification,growth and life history of rubyfish Plagiogeneion rubiginosum

Age verification of rubyfish (Plagiogeneion rubiginosum) was sought using the bomb radiocarbon chronometer procedure. Stable isotopes were investigated for life history characteristics. Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) and stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) levels were measured in micro-samples from five otoliths that had been aged using a zone count method. All the core ¹⁴C measurements were ‘pre-bomb’ indicating ages of at least 45 years, and the ¹⁴C measurements across the otolith sections suggested that the zone-count ageing method described herein is not biased. Maximum estimated age was 100 years. There was no significant between-sex difference in the von Bertalanffy growth curves. The δ¹⁸O values indicated that rubyfish are near-surface as juveniles, and move deeper with age. Adults appear to reside in 600–1000 m; this is deeper than most trawl-capture data suggest, but not implausible, and has stock assessment implications. The δ¹³C values reflect fish metabolic rates, trophic feeding levels and oceanographic conditions. The stable isotopes record the environmental life history of each fish, and have value in distinguishing stocks and/or indicating vertical and latitudinal migratory patterns.     

London MIST 2004

The annual one-day meeting of the MIST (Magnetosphere, Ionosphere and Solar–Terrestrial) community was held in November 2004 at Burlington House, with contributions on data and ideas ranging from Cassini to Cluster, with stops at many experiments in between.