水--煤层气两相流体在煤层中的渗流规律

采用煤体承受有效应力、水-气混合流动及固一流相互作用的基本原理，建立了煤层气开采过程中水-煤层气两相流渗的基本方程，通过自行设计的实验装置，测定了煤层中水-煤层气共同流动时的两相流体的流量，渗透率及随水的饱和度变化关系，并据此模拟出了反映水-煤层气渗透基本规律，从而为煤层气开采提供了理论基础。     

Spatial behaviour of Rayleigh waves in layered half‐spaces under active surface sources

In the free state, Rayleigh waves are assumed to travel in the form of planar wavefronts. Under such an assumption, the propagation behaviour of the modes of Rayleigh waves in layered half‐spaces is only frequency dependent. The frequency behaviour, which is often termed as dispersion, is determined by the shear wave velocity profile of layered soils within the depth related to wavelength (or frequency). According to this characteristic, the shear wave velocity profile can be back‐analysed from the dispersion. The technique is widely used in the surface wave testing. However, the wavefronts of Rayleigh waves activated by the surface sources are non‐planar. The geometric discrepancy could result in Rayleigh waves manifesting distance‐dependent behaviour, which is referred to as spatial behaviour in this paper. Conventional analysis ignoring this spatial behaviour could introduce unexpected errors. In order to take the effects of sources on the propagation behaviour into account, a new mathematical model is established for Rayleigh waves in layered elastic media under vertical disc‐like surface sources using the thin‐layer method. The spatial behaviour of the activated modes and the apparent phase velocity, which is the propagation velocity of Rayleigh waves superposed by the multiple modes, are then analysed. Aspects of the spatial behaviour investigated in this paper include the equilibrium path, the particle orbit, and the geometric attenuation of the activated Rayleigh waves. The results presented in this paper can provide some guidelines for developing new inverse mathematical models and algorithms.     

胶东半岛不同构造单元深部热流分流聚热模式

中生代、新生代时期地壳剧烈运动将胶东半岛划分为胶北隆起、胶莱凹陷、胶南-威海隆起三大构造单元,其中隆起山地区广泛分布花岗岩、变质岩,凹陷盆地区主要分布砂岩沉积地层,胶北隆起区与威海隆起区相对于胶莱凹陷盆地区具有更高的大地热流值.为系统分析胶东半岛大地热流值分布特征及其形成机理,本文在分析胶东半岛构造-热发展史、地热地质...     

Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

沪宁高速公路路面温度变化特征及统计模型

使用2006年7月-2007年6月沪宁高速公路沿线梅村和仙人山站附近的逐分钟路面温度、气温、湿度、风向、风速、降水气象资料, 分析了梅村和仙人山不同季节和不同天气状况下路面温度的日变化特征。结果表明:不同季节路面温度和气温具有明显的日变化;日出至日落时段,路面温度与气温有较大差异。在此基础上,应用逐步回归方法建立了梅村和仙人山最高和最低路面温度统计模型, 得出最低路面温度模型模拟结果与实况的变化趋势接近,误差绝对值不超过2℃, 具有很好的实际应用价值; 而最高路面温度模型在一定程度上模拟结果偏差较大,实际应用中需进行适当修订。     

线性度方法在前兆观测数据分析处理中的应用

利用空间线性度方法，对前兆场中不同台站，不同学科的前兆观测数据从总体形态上进行综合分析，得到关于描述前兆场的新的特征量ａ（空间线性度）本文给出了空间线性度的具体计算方法，并以华北地区为例，分析处理了区内１９７０～１９９４年部分地电阻率和地下水位观测资料，所得结果表明，新的前兆特征量ａ在中强地震之前一年左右时间内有异常显示。     

甘肃肃北贾公台金矿构造叠加晕特征及深部找矿预测

通过对贾公台金矿开展系统的原生晕研究工作,初步建立了矿区原生叠加晕轴向分带(自上而下):W-Mo-Bi-Ni-Co-Cu-Zn-Pb-Ag-Au-Sb-As,认为区内成矿热液具有多期次叠加成矿的特点,深部前缘晕元素异常发育,预示深部找矿前景较好,预测深部盲矿靶位在3200 m标高以下。     

四川盆地ZQ8井五峰组-龙一段有机质富集机制研究

四川盆地五峰组-龙一段黑色页岩为一套厚度稳定、有机质丰度高的优质海相烃源岩,是页岩气勘探开采的重要层系。为了解五峰组-龙一段有机质富集机制,对四川盆地川南低陡褶带南缘的ZQ8井进行了岩心、岩石薄片、X-衍射、扫描电镜、有机碳、有机碳同位素及微量元素分析。氧化还原指标（Ni/Co、V/Cr、U/Th）表明五峰组海水氧化还原条件由早期富氧氧化条件过渡到缺氧还原条件,龙一₁¹-龙一₁³小层为缺氧-贫氧还原环境,龙一₁⁴-龙一₂⁴小层为富氧氧化环境。氧化还原指标、生产力、笔石、矿物组分和TOC含量的相关性,证明缺氧或贫氧的还原性水体环境是有机质富集的主控因素,笔石、生物成因石英和黄铁矿促进有机质的富集,黏土矿物抑制有机质的富集。综合分析表明：五峰组富有机质页岩主要由火山作用带来大量的营养物质及温暖湿润气候条件下,笔石及浮游动植物繁殖,生产力高,在强滞留缺氧环境下形成;五峰组后期富有机质页岩主要由于冰川作用造成的大量生物灭绝,提供大量有机物质,在缺氧硫化环境下保存形成;龙马溪组富有机质页岩主要受极地冰川溶解,带来丰富的营养物质,生产力水平升高,在高水位海域形成的底部静海相缺氧环境下形成。     

唐山市农业洪涝灾害面积与暴雨关系分析

利用唐山市统计局1985—2014年各县逐年播种面积和农业洪涝受灾面积数据资料、唐山地区11个县市气象站逐日降水资料,采用趋势分析、多项式统计回归等方法,对唐山地区农业洪涝灾害时空特征及与暴雨的关系进行分析。结果表明：唐山洪灾面积总体呈微弱的下降趋势,但不显著,与年暴雨日数变化趋势一致。各县域的洪灾以轻到中度为主,占洪灾的80%—100%。唐山地区洪灾与年暴雨量有关（R = 0.78）,但不显著,受灾面积与年暴雨日数显著相关（R = 0.83,P < 0.01）。中等以上洪灾年的暴雨平均暴雨日数为4—6 d、80%县站大暴雨日数为0.7—1.5 d、60%暴雨累积量在300 mm以上。区域种植结构、地形地势、水系河流分布等因素也是导致洪灾的一个重要方面。     

西沙群岛白云岩-铁白云岩岩相学特征

西沙群岛永兴岛西永2井和石岛西科1井均发现铁白云岩。主要通过X光粉晶衍射、偏光显微镜和扫描电镜技术完成测试,分析白云岩-铁白云岩分布及岩相学特征。X光粉晶衍射测试结果及综合分析表明,西科1井发育11层铁白云岩,西永2井发育8层铁白云岩。通过偏光显微镜鉴定,发现西永2井中新世白云岩主要为生物碎屑白云岩,白云石晶体呈粉晶—细晶结构;某些层段含较高铁白云石,呈微晶—粉晶状。通过薄片观察分析发现,西科1井发育大量物碎屑白云岩,多细晶—粉晶结构,自形—半自形为主,部分样品可见黑色铁质氧化物或者胶结物。扫描电镜观察发现2个井多数白云石为典型菱形多面体结构,白云化程度高。