Suspended sediment load prediction of river systems: GEP approach

This study presents gene expression programming (GEP), an extension of genetic programming, as an alternative approach to modeling the suspended sediment load relationship for the three Malaysian rivers. In this study, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), regression model, and GEP approaches were developed to predict suspended load in three Malaysian rivers: Muda River, Langat River, and Kurau River [ANFIS (R ²?=?0.93, root mean square error (RMSE)?=?3.19, and average error (AE)?=?1.12) and regression model (R ²?=?0.63, RMSE?=?13.96, and AE?=?12.69)]. Additionally, the explicit formulations of the developed GEP models are presented (R ²?=?0.88, RMSE?=?5.19, and AE?=?6.5). The performance of the GEP model was found to be acceptable compare to ANFIS and better than the conventional models.     

Environmental impact assessment on water quality deterioration caused by the decreased Ganges outflow and saline water intrusion in south-western Bangladesh

 This paper deals with an environmental impact assessment of low water flow in the river Ganges during a dry period at the Khulna and Mongla port areas in south-western Bangladesh. Large-scale surface water withdrawal in India after commissioning the Farakka Barrage causes a drastic fall in the Ganges low-flow condition within the Bangladesh territory during every dry period. The average lowest discharge in the Ganges is 552 m³/s, which is about 73% less than that in the pre-Farakka time. This has caused the deterioration of both surface and groundwater quality of the study area. Salinity is the principal cause of water quality degradation in the area. Present observation shows that the surface water of the area is sulphate-chloride dominated, which signifies high salinity whereas the groundwater is categorized as of medium to high salinity. To maintain the Rupsa River's maximum salinity below 1000 μS/cm the discharge in the Ganges should be ∼1500 m³/s, whereas that at Garai basin is ∼10 m³/s. If this present situation continues it will be a crippling blow to the environment of the area in the long term. An integrated multidisciplinary approach to hydrogeological research is urgently required to salvage the area from further deterioration. Received: 9 August 1999 · Accepted: 8 March 2000     

Lake and reservoir water quality affected by metals leaching from tropical soils, Bangladesh

 The release of metals during weathering has been studied in order to assess its geochemical controls and possible effects on environmental health in Bangladesh. A total of 27 soil samples and 7 surface water samples were collected from four locations covering three major regions in the country. Results show that weathering effects are a strong function of climatic conditions. Surface waters are typically enriched in Al, Mg, Ca, Na, K, As, Ba, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn. The solubility of metal ions, organometallic complexes, co-precipitation or co-existence with the colloidal clay fraction are the main processes that lead to metal enrichment in lake and reservoir water. Aluminium concentrations exceed World Health Organization (WHO) drinking-water standards in all samples, and in two regions, arsenic concentrations also significantly exceed WHO standards. The elevated levels of As indicate that arsenic contamination of water supplies in Bangladesh is not confined to groundwater. Received: 4 June 1999 · Accepted: 17 August 1999     

Development of Tide–Surge Interaction Model for the Coastal Region of Bangladesh

In this paper, a two-dimensional, vertically integrated hydrodynamic model is developed taking into account entrained air bubbles during storm surges as well as incorporating inverted barometer, and river and land dynamics. The model is specifically designed for the coastal region of Bangladesh. A nested scheme method with a fine mesh scheme (FMS), capable of incorporating the complex coastline and all major offshore islands accurately, nested into a coarse mesh scheme (CMS) covering up to 15° N latitude in the Bay of Bengal is used. To incorporate the small and big offshore islands in the Meghna estuarine region with its complex coastline accurately, a very fine mesh scheme (VFMS) is again nested into the FMS. Along the northeast corner of the VFMS, the Meghna river discharge is taken into account. The coastal and island boundaries are approximated through proper stair steps. The model equations are solved by a semi-implicit finite difference technique using a staggered C-grid. A stable appropriate tidal condition over the model domain is generated by applying tidal forcing with the four major tidal constituents M ₂, S ₂, K ₁, and O ₁ along the southern open boundary of the CMS. This tidal regime is introduced as the initial state of the sea for nonlinear interaction of tide and surge. The model is applied to simulate water levels due to the interaction of tide and surge associated with the cyclones April 1991 and Aila at different coastal and island locations along the coast of Bangladesh. The results are found to be quite satisfactory with root mean square error of ～0.50 m as calculated for both the storm events. Tests of sensitivities on water levels are carried out for air bubbles, offshore islands, river discharge, inverse barometer, and grid resolution. The presence of air bubbles increases simulated water levels a little bit in our model, and the contribution of air bubbles in increasing water level is found around 2 %. Further, water levels are found to be influenced by offshore islands, river discharge, inverse barometer as well as grid resolution.     

Downscaling and projection of precipitation from general circulation model predictors in an equatorial climate region by the automated regression-based statistical method

The authors have applied an automated regression-based statistical method, namely, the automated statistical downscaling (ASD) model, to downscale and project the precipitation climatology in an equatorial climate region (Peninsular Malaysia). Five precipitation indices are, principally, downscaled and projected: mean monthly values of precipitation (Mean), standard deviation (STD), 90th percentile of rain day amount, percentage of wet days (Wet-day), and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The predictors, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) products, are taken from the daily series reanalysis data, while the global climate model (GCM) outputs are from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) in A2/B2 emission scenarios and Third-Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) in A2 emission scenario. Meanwhile, the predictand data are taken from the arithmetically averaged rain gauge information and used as a baseline data for the evaluation. The results reveal, from the calibration and validation periods spanning a period of 40 years (1961–2000), the ASD model is capable to downscale the precipitation with reasonable accuracy. Overall, during the validation period, the model simulations with the NCEP predictors produce mean monthly precipitation of 6.18–6.20 mm/day (root mean squared error 0.78 and 0.82 mm/day), interpolated, respectively, on HadCM3 and CGCM3 grids, in contrast to 6.00 mm/day as observation. Nevertheless, the model suffers to perform reasonably well at the time of extreme precipitation and summer time, more specifically to generate the CDD and STD indices. The future projections of precipitation (2011–2099) exhibit that there would be an increase in the precipitation amount and frequency in most of the months. Taking the 1961–2000 timeline as the base period, overall, the annual mean precipitation would indicate a surplus projection by nearly 14~18 % under both GCM output cases (HadCM3 A2/B2 scenarios and CGCM3 A2 scenario). According to the model simulation, the September–November periods might be the more significant months projecting the increment of the precipitation amount around over 50 %, while the precipitation deficit would be seen in March–May periods.     

Geochemical and isotopic constraints on the age and origin of the Nidar Ophiolitic Complex, Ladakh, India: Implications for the Neo-Tethyan subduction along the Indus suture zone

The Nidar ophiolite complex is exposed within the Indus suture zone in eastern Ladakh, India. The suture zone is considered to represent remnant Neo-Tethyan Ocean that closed via subduction as the Indian plate moved northward with respect to the Asian plate. The two plates ultimately collided during the Middle Eocene. The Nidar ophiolite complex comprises a sequence of ultra-mafic rocks at the base, gabbroic rocks in the middle and volcano-sedimentary assemblage on the top. Earlier studies considered the Nidar ophiolite complex to represent an oceanic floor sequence based on lithological assemblage. However, present study, based on new mineral and whole rock geochemical and isotopic data (on bulk rocks and mineral separates) indicate their generation and emplacement in an intra-oceanic subduction environment. The plutonic and volcanic rocks have nearly flat to slightly depleted rare earth element (REE) patterns. The gabbroic rocks, in particular, show strong positive Sr and Eu anomalies in their REE and spidergram patterns, probably indicating plagioclase accumulation. Depletion in high field strength elements (HFSE) in the spidergram patterns may be related to stabilization of phases retaining the HFSE in the subducting slab and / or fractional crystallization of titano-magnetite phases. The high radiogenic Nd- and low radiogenic Sr-isotopic ratios for these rocks exclude any influence of continental material in their genesis, implying an intra-oceanic environment.

Nine point mineral–whole rock Sm–Nd isochron corresponds to an age of 140 ± 32 Ma with an initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd of 0.513835 ± 0.000053 (E_Nd t = + 7.4). This age is consistent with the precise Early Cretaceous age of Hauterivian (132 ± 2 to 127 ± 1.6 Ma) to Aptian (121 ± 1.4 to 112 ±1.1 Ma) for the overlying volcano-sedimentary (radiolarian bearing chert) sequences based on well-preserved radiolarian fossils (Kojima, S., Ahmad, T., Tanaka, T., Bagati, T.N., Mishra, M., Kumar, R. Islam, R., Khanna, P.P., 2001. Early Cretaceous radiolarians from the Indus suture zone, Ladakh, northern India. In: News of Osaka Micropaleontologists (NOM), Spec. Vol., 12, 257–270.) and cooling ages of 110–130 Ma based on ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar for Nidar–Spontang ophiolitic rocks (Mahéo, G., Berttrand, H., Guillot, S., Villa, I. M., Keller, F., Capiez, P., 2004. The South Ladakh Ophiolites (NW Himalaya, India): an intra-oceanic tholeiitic arc origin with implications for the closure of the Neo-Tethys. Chem. Geol., 203, 273–303.). As these gabbroic and volcanic rocks are interpreted to be arc related, the new Sm–Nd age data may indicate that intra-ocean subduction in the Neo-Tethyan ocean may have started much before  140 ± 32 Ma as this date is interpreted as the age of crystallization of the arc magma. Present and published age data on the arc magmatic rocks from the Indus suture zone may collectively indicate episodic magmatism with increasing maturity of the arc from more basic (during ~ 140 ± 32 Ma) when the arc was immature through intermediate (andesitic/granodioritic) at ~ 100 Ma to more felsic (rhyolitic/dioritic) magmatism at ~ 50–45 Ma, when the Indian and the Asian plates collided.     

High temporal and spatial resolution observations of meso-scale features of pre- and mature summer monsoon cloud systems over Bangladesh

Meso-scale characteristics of disturbances that bring about atmospheric disasters in pre- and mature monsoon seasons in Bangladesh are analyzed. Several types of meteorological instruments capable of observations with high temporal and spatial resolutions were introduced for the first time in this area to capture the meso-scale structure of rainfall systems. We installed an automatic weather station (AWS) and several automatic raingauges (ARGs) and utilized the weather radar of Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). From the radar image in the summer of 2001 (16–18 July), a striking feature of the systematic diurnal variation in this area was elucidated. In these 3 days, the diurnal evolutions of convective activity were remarkably similar to each other, implying that this pattern can be understood as a typical response of local cloud systems to the diurnal variation of insolation under some summer monsoon situations. The ARG data show the difference in characteristics of rainfall between pre- and mature monsoon seasons. The short intense downpour tends to occur more frequently in the pre-monsoon season than in the mature monsoon season. The pre-monsoon rainfall also has clear diurnal variation with a peak that is more strongly concentrated in time. In the northern part the rainfall peak is found in between midnight and early morning, while it is observed in the daytime in central to western parts of the country. Two disaster cases caused by meso-scale disturbances are analyzed. Although they occurred in the same season, the structures of the cloud systems were largely different from each other. The disturbance brought about tornadoes on 14 April 2004, consisting of many spherical cloud systems of approximately 20 km size. On the other hand, another one that caused the tragic river water transport accident on 23 May 2004 had meso-scale rain band structure. The latter case was captured by the AWS located at Dhaka. Sudden changes in temperature, wind and pressure were observed clearly, showing the typical structure of convective rain bands.