An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.     

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes

We develop an automatic system for the sampling of ash fall particles, to be used for continuous monitoring of magma ascent and eruptive dynamics at active volcanoes. The system consists of a sampling apparatus and cameras to monitor surface phenomena during eruptions. The Sampling Apparatus for Time Series Unmanned Monitoring of Ash (SATSUMA-I and SATSUMA-II) is less than 10 kg in weight and works automatically for more than a month with a 10-kg lead battery to obtain a total of 30 to 36 samples in one cycle of operation. The time range covered in one cycle varies from less than an hour to several months, depending on the aims of observation, allowing researchers to target minute-scale fluctuations in a single eruptive event, as well as daily to weekly trends in persistent volcanic activity. The latest version, SATSUMA-II, also enables control of sampling parameters remotely by e-mail commands. Durability of the apparatus is high: our prototypes worked for several months, in rainy and typhoon seasons, at windy and humid locations, and under strong sunlight. We have been successful in collecting ash samples emitted from Showa crater almost everyday for more than 4 years (2008–2012) at Sakurajima volcano in southwest Japan.     

Dynamic characterization of multiple tuned mass dampers and some design formulas

Multiple Tuned Mass Dampers (MTMD) consist of a large number of small oscillators with natural frequencies distributed around the natural frequency of a controlled mode of the structure. In the present paper, the modal characteristics and efficiency of the MTMD are studied analytically. Perturbation solutions for the modal properties of the MTMD–structure system are obtained and the modal characteristics are discussed. An explicit formula to estimate the effectiveness of the MTMD subjected to harmonic forces is also derived. It is shown that the MTMD is efficient when at least one of the oscillators is strongly coupled with the structure in any mode. Based on this observation, a critical bandwidth of the natural frequencies of the MTMD to make the system multiply tuned is derived in a simple form, and furthermore a robustness criterion for the frequency tuning under a given bandwidth is proposed. It is shown that, when properly designed, the MTMD can be much more stable (robust) than a conventional single TMD while maintaining more or less the same efficiency. Numerical studies verify the accuracy of the perturbation solutions and the proposed formulas.     

Swelling of a lava plug associated with a Vulcanian eruption at Sakurajima Volcano,Japan, as revealed by infrasound record: case study of the eruption on January 2, 2007

In order to clarify the time relation of the expansion of a gas pocket and failure of its overlying plug of lava during Vulcanian eruptions, infrasound records and video images of the Vulcanian eruption that occurred at Sakurajima volcano on January 2, 2007 were analyzed with respect to their origin times. Weak (≤3 Pa) and slowly increasing air pressure preceded the impulsive compression phase by 0.25–0.32 s, and a longer-period rarefaction phase of infrasound waves was recognized at all microphone stations. The velocity of the compression phase was assumed to be supersonic (ca. 400 m/s) up to 850 m above the crater bottom from other recent explosions. On the other hand, the propagation velocity of the preceding weak signal was regarded to be similar to the air sound velocity because the lack of impulsiveness is unlikely to be related to the main compression phase. Therefore, the estimated origin time of the main compression phase was delayed by 0.5–0.7 s from the preceding phase. The origin time of the preceding phase coincided with the onset of the isotropic expansion process of the pressurized gas pocket, which was obtained by the waveform inversion of the explosion earthquake. In contrast, the origin time of the main impulsive phase coincided with the time when the expansion rate reached its peak. This observation suggests that the volumetric increase of the gas pocket caused swelling of the surface of the crater bottom and its subsequent failure. When the expansion velocity exceeded a threshold level, the main impulsive compression phase radiated with a high velocity by the sudden releases of the pressurized gases. The volumetric change at the source was estimated to be 280–560 m³ from the preceding phase of the infrasound. This volume change indicates that the vertical displacement of the swelling ground was on the order of 1.0 m, assuming the radius of the lava plug was ca. 10 m.     

Species composition and forest structure in tropical moist deciduous forest of Bangladesh—a case study in Thakurgaon

This study was conducted in the tropical moist deciduous forest in Bangladesh to describe the species composition, diversity, and the forest structure. There were three plots established in Ranishonkoil, Ruhia, and Baliadangi forest beat in Thakurgaon. A total of 126 tree species, 1,991 stems (663 ha^?1) of ≥10-cm girth were listed. Tree communities in these forest region differed in dominance, composition, diversity, and structure; and tree stand density varied from 651 to 685 ha^?1. Species diversity (H¹) ranges from 3.11 to 3.48. Meliaceae, Myrtaceae, and Rubiaceae were the most abundant families within the three plot area. Study site 2 is more diverse at spatial scale and taxonomic levels due to high rainfall and favorable edaphic condition. This study will help the foresters as baseline information for monitoring and sustaining diversity of tropical moist deciduous forests in Bangladesh.     

Structure refinement of a nonstoichiometric pyroxene synthesized under ambient pressure

Structure refinement was carried out on a nonstoichiometric clinopyroxene grown under the ambient pressure from a glass with composition of 23%(mol)Di+53%Es+24%An. The degree of nonstoichiometry in this crystal is significantly larger than those of clinopyroxenes reported previously, which were found in high pressure products. The refinement gave the empirical chemical formula (Ca_0.742Fe_0.087)(Mg_0.016Al_0.888Fe_0.075)(Al_0.500Si_1.500)O₆ for the crystal and showed that vacancies are located mainly at M2 sites. Despite replacement of Si by Al, the crystal has a smaller cell volume than diopside primarily owing to a significant amount of Mg at M1 being replaced by Al. Received: 25 June 1997 / Revised, accepted: 6 September 1997