Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

Simulated precipitation response to SST forcing and potential predictability in the region of the South Atlantic convergence zone

The sensitivity of the precipitation response in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) to sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is investigated by an inter-model comparison study of ensembles of multidecadal integrations of two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs)—version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) model, and the NCAR community climate model (CCM3) version 3.6.6. Despite the different physical parameterizations, the two models consistently show an SST-forced signal located mainly over the oceanic portion of the SACZ. The signal has interannual-to-decadal timescales, and consists of a shift and strengthening of the SACZ toward anomalous warm waters. A potential predictability analysis reveals that the maximum predictable variance is about 50% of the total SACZ variance over the ocean, but the signal attenuates rapidly toward the South American continent. This result implies that the land portion of the SACZ is primarily dominated by the internal variability, thereby having a limited potential predictability at seasonal timescales.     

Variation of the geomagnetic field in Costa Rica during the total solar eclipse of July 11, 1991

Ground measurements of the geomagnetic field, during the total solar eclipse of July 11, 1991, were carried out at three sites in Costa Rica located within the eclipse's path of totality. Near totality, there was a significant change in the total intensity,F. Its normal decrease in the afternoon hours was interrupted during a period of about 45 min, in whichF varied very little. This was due mainly to a small variation in horizontal intensity,H, during such a period. The departure ofF from normal lasted about 100 min; its maximum departure was near 10 nT and occurred about 38 min after totality, The declination,D, also experienced a small change (about 2.3 min) during the total period of the eclipse. The vertical intensity,Z, and the inclination,I, did not show significant changes.     

Inertial Effects on the Vertical Transport of Suspended Particles in a Turbulent Boundary Layer

In many atmospheric flows, a dispersed phase is actively suspended by turbulence, whose competition with gravitational settling ultimately dictates its vertical distribution. Examples of dispersed phases include snow, sea-spray droplets, dust, or sand, where individual elements of much larger density than the surrounding air are carried by turbulent motions after emission from the surface. In cases where the particle is assumed to deviate from local fluid motions only by its gravitational settling (i.e., they are inertialess), traditional flux balances predict a power-law dependence of particle concentration with height. It is unclear, however, how particle inertia influences this relationship, and this question is the focus of this work. Direct numerical simulations are conducted of turbulent open-channel flow, laden with Lagrangian particles of specified inertia; in this way the study focuses on the turbulent transport which occurs in the lowest few meters of the planetary boundary layer, in regions critical for connecting emission fluxes to the fluxes felt by the full-scale boundary layer. Simulations over a wide range of particle Stokes number, while holding the dimensionless settling velocity constant, are performed to understand the role of particle inertia on vertical dispersion. It is found that particles deviate from their inertialess behaviour in ways that are not easily captured by traditional theory; concentrations are reduced with increasing Stokes number. Furthermore, a similarity-based eddy diffusivity for particle concentration fails as particles experience inertial acceleration, precluding a closed-form solution for particle concentration as in the case of inertialess particles. The primary consequence of this result is that typical flux parametrizations connecting surface emission models (e.g., saltation models or sea-spray generation functions) to elevated boundary conditions may overestimate particle concentrations due to the reduced vertical transport caused by inertia in between; likewise particle emission may be underestimated if inferred from concentration measurements aloft.     

Long-lasting floods buffer the thermal regime of the Pampas

The presence of large water masses influences the thermal regime of nearby land shaping the local climate of coastal areas by the ocean or large continental lakes. Large surface water bodies have an ephemeral nature in the vast sedimentary plains of the Pampas (Argentina) where non-flooded periods alternate with flooding cycles covering up to one third of the landscape for several months. Based on temperature records from 17 sites located 1 to 700 km away from the Atlantic coast and MODIS land surface temperature data, we explore the effects of floods on diurnal and seasonal thermal ranges as well as temperature extremes. In non-flooded periods, there is a linear increase of mean diurnal thermal range (DTR) from the coast towards the interior of the region (DTR increasing from 10 to 16 K, 0.79 K/100 km, r ² = 0.81). This relationship weakens during flood episodes when the DTR of flood-prone inland locations shows a decline of 2 to 4 K, depending on surface water coverage in the surrounding area. DTR even approaches typical coastal values 500 km away from the ocean in the most flooded location that we studied during the three flooding cycles recorded in the study period. Frosts-free periods, a key driver of the phenology of both natural and cultivated ecosystems, are extended by up to 55 days during floods, most likely as a result of enhanced ground heat storage across the landscape (~2.7 fold change in day-night heat transfer) combined with other effects on the surface energy balance such as greater night evaporation rates. The reduced thermal range and longer frost-free periods affect plant growth development and may offer an opportunity for longer crop growing periods, which may not only contribute to partially compensating for regional production losses caused by floods, but also open avenues for flood mitigation through higher plant evapotranspirative water losses.     

Reliability-based design of R/C water tank structures under seismic action

Based on a reliability level 2 method, a procedure is proposed to design reinforced concrete structures for elevated tanks subjected to seismic action, with a specified probability of failure in a 50-year design life. To evaluate the probability of failure the ultimate limit state is obtained when the top column displacement demanded by the earthquake, a random variable, reaches the allowable displacement, which is here treated as deterministic. The seismic action is characterized probabilistically by the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration, which is obtained from a design spectrum. The strength and ductility of an annular column section of confined reinforced concrete for cyclic loads are evaluated with design aids. Design charts are made for a given tank capacity and specified seismic zone that allow one to choose different combinations of strength, stiffness and ductility for the same tolerable probability of failure. A step by step method is suggested for the design of the annular column section, choosing finally the most convenient design. The advantage of this methodology is shown through a numerical example.     

Recent variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram Himalaya and its possible teleconnections with the pacific decadal oscillation

This study discusses the formation and variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro glacier system in the central Karakoram Himalaya during the last four decades. We mapped supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier from 1978 to 2014 using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM + and LCDM images. Most of the glacial lakes were formed or expanded during the late 1970s–2008. After 2008, the total number and the area of glacial lakes were found to be lesser compared to previous years. We tried to find any teleconnections exists between the glacial lake changes in this region and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which entered its prolonged warm regime in the late 1970s and again to its cold regime in 2008, based on observational investigation. The decrease in the number and area of the supraglacial lakes after 2008 is hypothesised to be linked with the recent cold phase of PDO.     

Post-LGM sedimentation on the outer shelf-upper slope of the northernmost part of the São Paulo Bight, southeastern Brazil

Sedimentary and isotope data as well as ¹⁴C AMS dating on 15 box cores were used to identify the main post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) processes in the outer shelf and upper slope of the northernmost part of the São Paulo Bight, southeastern Brazil. Results show slight but significant variations in calcium carbonate, total sulphur and nitrogen contents as well as carbon and oxygen isotope ratios. Sedimentation rates, varying from 5 to 184 mm kyr⁻¹ are controlled by the shelf and upper slope morphology, the Brazil Current meander dynamics, and the Coastal Water offshore motion.     

Formulation of a three‐dimensional constitutive model for unsaturated soils incorporating mechanical–water retention couplings

Wheeler, Sharma and Buisson proposed an elasto‐plastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils that couples the mechanical and water retention behaviours. The model was formulated for isotropic stress states and adopts the mean Bishop's stress and modified suction as stress state variables. This paper deals with the extension of this constitutive model to general three‐dimensional stress conditions, proposing the generalized stress–strain relationships required for the numerical integration of the constitutive model. A characteristic of the original model is the consideration of a number of elasto‐plastic mechanisms to describe the complex behaviour of unsaturated soils. This work presents the three‐dimensional formulation of these coupled irreversible mechanisms in a generalized way including anisotropic loading. The paper also compares the results from the model with published experiments performed under different loading conditions. The response of the model is very satisfactory in terms of both mechanical and water retention behaviours. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.