Reconstructing extreme post‐wildfire floods: a comparison of convective and mesoscale events

In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km² Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h^?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h^?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m³ s^?1 km^?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m³ s^?1 km^?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Origin,distribution, and alteration of asphalts at Chapopote Knoll,Southern Gulf of Mexico

Following the discovery of asphalt volcanism in the Campeche Knolls a research cruise was carried out in 2006 to unravel the nature of the asphalt deposits at Chapopote. The novel results support the concept that the asphalt deposits at the seafloor in 3000 m of water depth originate from the seepage of heavy petroleum with a density slightly greater than water. The released petroleum forms characteristic flow structures at the seafloor with surfaces that are ‘ropy’ or ‘rough’ similar to magmatic lava flows. The surface structures indicate that the viscosity of the heavy petroleum rapidly increases after extrusion due to loss of volatiles. Consequently, the heavy petroleum forms the observed asphalt deposit and solidifies. Detailed survey with a remotely operated vehicle revealed that the asphalts are subject to sequential alterations: e.g. volume reduction leading to the formation of visible cracks in the asphalt surface, followed by fragmentation of the entire deposit. While relatively fresh asphalt samples were gooey and sticky, older, fragmented pieces were found to be brittle without residual stickiness. Furthermore, there is evidence for petroleum seepage from below the asphalt deposits, leading to local up-doming and, sometimes, to whip-shaped extrusions. Extensive mapping by TV-guided tools of Chapopote Asphalt Volcano indicates that the main asphalt deposits occur at the south-western rim that borders a central, crater-like depression. The most recent asphalt deposit at Chapopote is the main asphalt field covering an area of ∼2000 m². Asphalt volcanism is distinct from oil and gas seepage previously described in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere because it is characterized by episodic intrusions of semi-solid hydrocarbons that spread laterally over a substantial area and produce structures with significant vertical relief. As Chapopote occurs at the crest of a salt structure it is inferred that asphalt volcanism is a secondary result of salt tectonism.     

Zircon—Earth's timekeeper

One of the earliest written references to zircon is from Lydgate's edition of Aesop's Fables from c.1400 where a zircon was found ‘hid in the dunghill’. Since the humble surroundings of this early record, zircon has become a popular and important mineral. The name zircon is believed to have derived from the Persian words ‘zar’ and ‘gun’ meaning gold and colour respectively. During the Middle Ages, it was believed that wearing zircon jewellery was a cure against insomnia and protected against disease. In more modern times, zircon has found uses in industrial processes and is a key mineral for geologists investigating the geological history of the Earth. It can incorporate uranium which undergoes radioactive decay to lead at a constant rate. By measuring the ratios of uranium and lead isotopes, geologists can calculate the age at which zircons formed. Physical and chemical durability makes zircon able to survive for long periods of geological time and record information about hallmark geological events in Earth history, including early crustal formation, mountain‐building events and mass extinctions. Indeed, the oldest known material on the planet is a zircon from Jack Hills in Western Australia, dated at 4.4 billion years old, a mere 0.15 billion years after the formation of the Earth. This remarkable durability has also led to zircon finding commercial applications in high‐temperature industrial processes, such as brick foundries, while its chemical inertness makes it a potential material for testing the impact of the radioactive products of nuclear waste on mineral structures.     

TRENDS IN THE VARIABILITY OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE,CANADIAN ARCTIC

A measure of temperature variability was calculated using annual temperature records obtained from 40 stations in the Canadian Arctic, records beginning between 1929 and 1958, and concluding for this study in 1983. Long-term trends in the frequency of extreme temperature conditions were obtained for eight regions in the Arctic. The results indicate that temperatures in the Canadian Arctic, as a whole, have not become more variable. In the last 15 to 20 years of the period considered in this study, the occurrence of extreme temperature conditions has increased only in three of the eight regions.     

Late-Quaternary summer temperature changes in the northern-European tree-line region

We present two new quantitative July mean temperature (T_jul) reconstructions from the Arctic tree-line region in the Kola Peninsula in north-western Russia. The reconstructions are based on fossil pollen records and cover the Younger Dryas stadial and the Holocene. The inferred temperatures are less reliable during the Younger Dryas because of the poorer fit between the fossil pollen samples and the modern samples in the calibration set than during the Holocene. The results suggest that the Younger Dryas T_jul in the region was 8.0–10.0°C, being 2.0–3.0°C lower than at present. The Holocene summer temperature maximum dates to 7500–6500 cal yr BP, with T_jul about 1.5°C higher than at present. These new records contribute to our understanding of summer temperature changes along the northern-European tree-line region. The Holocene trends are consistent in most of the independent records from the Fennoscandian–Kola tree-line region, with the beginning of the Holocene thermal maximum no sooner than at about 8000 cal yr BP. In the few existing temperature-related records farther east in the Russian Arctic tree line, the period of highest summer temperature begins already at about 10,000 cal yr BP. This difference may reflect the strong influence of the Atlantic coastal current on the atmospheric circulation pattern and the thermal behaviour of the tree-line region on the Atlantic seaboard, and the more direct influence of the summer solar insolation on summer temperature in the region east of the Kola Peninsula.     

Climatic and hydrologic variability during the past millennium in the eastern Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of western Canada

Modelling of tree-ring δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O data from the Columbia Icefield area in the eastern Rocky Mountains of western Canada provides fuller understanding of climatic and hydrologic variability over the past 1000 yr in this region, based on reconstruction of changes in growth season atmospheric relative humidity (RH_grs), winter temperature (T_win) and the precipitation δ¹⁸O-T_win relation. The Little Ice Age (~ AD 1530s-1890s) is marked by low RH_grs and T_win and a δ¹⁸O-T_win relation offset from that of the present, reflecting enhanced meridional circulation and persistent influence of Arctic air masses. Independent proxy hydrologic evidence suggests that snowmelt sustained relatively abundant streamflow at this time in rivers draining the eastern Rockies. In contrast, the early millennium was marked by higher RH_grs and T_win and a δ¹⁸O-T_win relation like that of the 20th century, consistent with pervasive influence of Pacific air masses because of strong zonal circulation. Especially mild conditions prevailed during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” ~ AD 1100-1250, corresponding with evidence for reduced discharge in rivers draining the eastern Rockies and extensive hydrological drought in neighbouring western USA.     

The distribution of late-Quaternary woody taxa in northern Eurasia: evidence from a new macrofossil database

We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23° to 180°E and 46° to 76°N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene.     

Experiments with microcomputer-based artificial intelligence environments

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been experimenting with the use of relatively inexpensive microcomputers as artificial intelligence (AI) development environments. Several AI languages are available that perform fairly well on desk-top personal computers, as are low-to-medium cost expert system packages. Although performance of these systems is respectable, their speed and capacity limitations are questionable for serious earth science applications foreseen by the USGS. The most capable artificial intelligence applications currently are concentrated on what is known as the artificial intelligence computer, and include Xerox D-series, Tektronix 4400 series, Symbolics 3600, VAX, LMI, and Texas Instruments Explorer. The artificial intelligence computer runs expert system shells and Lisp, Prolog, and Smalltalk programming languages. However, these AI environments are expensive. Recently, inexpensive 32-bit hardware has become available for the IBM/AT microcomputer. USGS has acquired and recently completed Beta-testing of the Gold Hill Systems 80386 Hummingboard, which runs Common Lisp on an IBM/AT microcomputer. Hummingboard appears to have the potential to overcome many of the speed/capacity limitations observed with AI-applications on standard personal computers. USGS is a Beta-test site for the Gold Hill Systems GoldWorks expert system. GoldWorks combines some high-end expert system shell capabilities in a medium-cost package. This shell is developed in Common Lisp, runs on the 80386 Hummingboard, and provides some expert system features formerly available only on AI-computers including frame and rule-based reasoning, on-line tutorial, multiple inheritance, and object-programming.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987. Use of brand names in this paper is for identification purposes only and does not constitute endorsement by the U.S. Geological Survey.