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The soil conservation service (now Natural Resources Conservation Service) Curve Number (SCS-CN), one of the most commonly used methods for surface runoff prediction. The runoff calculated by this method was very sensitive to CN values. In this study, CN values were calculated by both arithmetic mean (CN_C) and least square fit method (CN_F) using observed rainfall-runoff data from 43 sites in the Loess Plateau region, which are considerably different from the CN2 values obtained from the USDA-SCS handbook table (CN_T). The results showed that using CN_C instead of CN_T for each watershed produce little improvement, while replacing CN_T with CN_F improves the performance of the original SCS-CN method, but still performs poorly in most study sites. This is mainly due to the SCS-CN method using a constant CN value and discounting of the temporal variation in rainfall-runoff process. Therefore, three factors—soil moisture, rainfall depth and intensity—affecting the surface runoff variability are considered to reflect the variation of CN in each watershed, and a new CN value was developed. The reliability of the proposed method was tested with data from 38 watersheds, and then applied to the remaining five typical watersheds using the optimized parameters. The results indicated that the proposed method, which boosted the model efficiencies to 81.83% and 74.23% during calibration and validation cases, respectively, performed better than the original SCS-CN and the Shi and Wang (2020b) method, a modified SCS-CN method based on tabulated CN value. Thus, the proposed method incorporating the influence of the temporal variability of soil moisture, rainfall depth, and intensity factors suggests an accurate runoff prediction for general applications under different hydrological and climatic conditions on the Loess Plateau region. 相似文献
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Applying the statistical damage theory based on the Weibull distribution to describe rock deformation and failure processes is an important development in rock mechanics. The shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, m, determines the basic shape of the distribution curve; additionally, it also represents a physical characteristic which can be applied when constructing rock constitutive models. To study the evolution of m during rock failure when applying the Weibull distribution to rock mechanics, uniaxial cyclic loading tests of shale specimens were conducted and previous rock mechanics experiments under different temperatures and loading rates were reviewed. The results indicate that m varied with the accumulation of damage but was almost constant between the volume expansion point and the peak strength point of each specimen. Combined with previous studies about the accelerated failure behavior of rocks, we conclude that between the volume expansion point and the peak strength point, the mechanical behavior of the rock fracture process did not change significantly. Based on the characteristics of m at different damage stages during the rock failure process, ranges of m values at different damage stages are proposed. The conclusions reached in this study may be used as an important reference for theoretical research on rock mechanics. 相似文献
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利用淮南深部地球物理实验场地下848 m巷道内的Burris弹簧重力仪和地表LCR-ET20弹簧重力仪同期连续重力潮汐观测资料,对实验场地表和地下重力噪声水平进行了初步分析.分析结果表明在频率小于1.70 mHz(对应周期约为9.8 min)时,地下重力噪声水平都要比地表低;特别是在重力仪敏感的信号频段(周期大于3h的信号频段),地下848 m巷道内的重力噪声水平要比地表低约2个数量级,充分验证了实验场地下观测环境具有低重力噪声水平的超静特点.实验结果证明淮南深部地球物理实验场地下848 m巷道可为深地多物理场观测提供超静观测环境,为检测微弱地球物理场信号提供绝佳观测条件. 相似文献
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Journal of Geographical Sciences - Lake ice phenology is considered a sensitive indicator of regional climate change. We utilized time series information of this kind extracted from a series of... 相似文献
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The harmful cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii is a widespread species increasingly being recorded in freshwater systems around the world. Studies have demonstrated some key attributes of this species which may explain its global dominance. It has a high level of flexibility with respect to light and nutrients, being capable of growth under low and variable light conditions. However, it is the strategy with respect to nutrient utilization that has received more attention. Unlike many bloom forming species, the dominance of this species is not simply linked to higher nutrient loads. In fact it appears that it is more competitive when phosphorus and nitrogen availability is low and/or variable. An important component of this flexibility appears to be the result of within-population strain variability in responses to nutrients, as well as key physiological adaptations. Strain variability also appears to have an effect on the population-level cell quota of toxins, specifically cylindrospermopsins(CYNs). Field studies in Australia showed that populations had the highest proportion of toxic strains when dissolved inorganic phosphorus was added, resulting in stoichiometrically balanced nitrogen and phosphorus within the cells. These strategies are part of an arsenal of responses to environmental conditions, making it a challenging species to manage. However, our ability to improve bloom prediction will rely on a more detailed understanding of the complex physiology and ecology of this species. 相似文献
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清代云南雨季早晚序列的重建与夏季风变迁 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
根据以档案为主的历史文献资料逐年进行考订,复原了云南1711~1911年间的雨季早晚序列,并利用多种资料进行了检验。分析表明,云南雨季开始期年际和年代际的波动都较剧烈,还存在年代际尺度以上的长时间尺度波动。雨季开始期从18世纪初逐步转向偏早,19世纪又转向偏迟,到20世纪又偏早,这在一定程度上反映了夏季风的长期变迁。云南雨季开始期存在明显的准3年和11.3年周期,准3年周期可能和El Nino事件的准3年周期有关,11.3年周期明显和太阳活动的11年周期有关。同时发现,El Nino事件对云南雨季的开始期有重要的影响,在El Nino年云南雨季开始期主要为偏迟或正常,但这种影响存在明显减弱的时期,可能意味着ENSO事件对亚洲夏季风的影响存在某种震荡。 相似文献