The effects of climate change and phenological variation on agricultural production and its risk pattern in the black soil area of northeast China

The black soil region of northeast China is a vital food base and is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in China. However, the characteristics of the crop phenological response and the integrated impact of climate and phenological changes on agricultural productivity in the region under the background of climate change are not clear. The future agricultural risk assessment has been insufficiently quantified and the existing risk level formulation lacks a sound basis. Based on remote sensing products, climate data, and model simulations, this study integrated a logistic function fitting curvature derivation, multiple linear regression, and scenario simulation to investigate crop phenology dynamics and their climate response characteristics in the black soil region. Additionally, the compound effects of climate and phenology changes on agricultural production and possible future risks were identified. The key results were as follows: (1) From 2000 to 2017, 29.76% of the black soil region of northeast China experienced a significant delay in the start of the growing season (SOS) and 16.71% of the total area displayed a trend for the end of the growing season (EOS) to arrive earlier. The time lagged effects of the SOS in terms of the crop response to climatic factors were site and climatic parameter dependent. The influence of temperature was widespread and its effect had a longer lag time in general; (2) Both climatic and phenological changes have had a significant effect on the inter-annual variability of crop production, and the predictive ability of both increased by 70.23%, while the predictive area expanded by 85.04%, as compared to that of climate change in the same period of the growing season; (3) Under the RCP8.5 scenario, there was a risk that the future crop yield would decrease in the north and increase in the south, and the risk area was constantly expanding. With a 2.0℃ rise in global temperature, the crop yield of the southern Songnen black soil sub-region would reduce by almost 10%. This finding will improve our understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate change and vegetation productivity dynamics, and is also helpful in the promotion of the risk management of agrometeorological disasters.     

山东栖霞石榴子石矿床特征及其成因探讨

栖霞石榴子石矿床位于华北板块胶辽隆起区南部栖霞-马连庄断凸构造单元。该矿床属片岩型石榴子石矿床。含矿层位为古元古代荆山群禄格庄组安吉村片岩段。矿层一般长400~3 450m,平均1 250m。斜深15.3~306.0m。厚度2.00~23.34m,平均8.34m,厚度变化系数50%左右。吕梁运动使荆山群发生了强烈的区域变质作用,变质程度达到高角闪岩相,生成了应力矿物石榴子石和矽线石,石榴子石富集成矿。     

山东省沿海岸带矿产资源分布特征

山东省沿海岸带矿产资源分布广泛,资源储量丰富。由于地壳演化历程的差异,决定其岩石建造和含矿建造的差异,从而导致了各大地构造单元内分布着各具特色的矿产;各个地质历史时期中形成的岩系都分布着一定的矿产。山东省沿海岸带属环太平洋Ⅰ级成矿带,分属于济阳(华北)成矿区、胶北(辽宁-胶东半岛)成矿区和胶南-威海成矿区3个Ⅱ级成矿区。由于山东省区域成矿作用的发生、发展和矿床的形成都受区域地质的发展演化控制,矿产在时间上的分布具有不均一性和规律性。     

一次强降水超级单体的双偏振雷达观测分析

为分析强降水超级单体风暴的偏振特征及其动力和云物理结构,利用厦门海沧双偏振雷达数据及常规观测资料,采用多普勒雷达风场反演和粒子相态识别等技术,对2018年5月7日发生在闽南地区的一次导致特大暴雨的强降水超级单体风暴进行了分析,研究表明:（1）相关系数小值区出现在有界弱回波区和钩状回波之前,可指示低层上升气流的位置。（2）在前侧下沉气流南侧的反射率因子梯度大值区附近,存在一个浅薄的差分反射率因子大值区（差分反射率因子弧）,其形态与超级单体的发展程度有关。在本次过程中差分反射率因子弧先于钩状回波和中气旋出现,对超级单体的发展具有较好的指示性。（3）在中层的融化层上,差分反射率因子大值区和相关系数小值区呈环形围绕在上升气流周围。差分反射率因子环和相关系数环对确定中层上升气流的位置具有指示意义。（4）差分反射率因子柱位于有界弱回波区的上方,并位于主上升气流附近,在仅有单部雷达进行观测时,差分反射率因子柱可用于识别主上升气流的位置。（5）差分相位常数柱主要由大量混合相态水凝物造成,其位置与地面雨强中心存在较好的对应关系。      

山东省沿海岸带矿产资源分布特征

山东省沿海岸带矿产资源分布广泛,资源储量丰富。由于地壳演化历程的差异,决定其岩石建造和含矿建造的差异,从而导致了各大地构造单元内分布着各具特色的矿产;各个地质历史时期中形成的岩系都分布着一定的矿产。山东省沿海岸带属环太平洋Ⅰ级成矿带,分属于济阳（华北）成矿区、胶北（辽宁胶东半岛）成矿区和胶南威海成矿区3个Ⅱ级成矿区。由于山东省区域成矿作用的发生、发展和矿床的形成都受区域地质的发展演化控制,矿产在时间上的分布具有不均一性和规律性。     

Interpretation of Soil–Cement Properties and Application in Numerical Studies of Ground Settlement Due to Tunneling Under Existing Metro Line

Uncertainty of properties of improved soft ground with chemical grouting often results in discrepancy between simulated results and observed data and makes prediction for ground subsidence difficult. It also made practice usually adopts unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures as design control criterion. This paper presents a methodology to interpret the strength and deformation parameters from unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures for advanced numerical analysis which is widely used in reinforcing the soft ground and pre-supporting excavation. Observed data are used to compare with the simulated results and validate the interpretations. Numerical experiments with two-dimensional finite element model for covered undercutting of large cross-sectional twin tunnel under an existing subway station are presented. Issues with respect to design and construction of excavation that potentially affect the ground surface subsidence are explored. It was found that the ground subsidence caused by tunneling in soil–cement medium under existing subway station is similar to that in a greenfield site but with flatter settlement trough. Unconfined compressive strength of soil–cement mixtures ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 MPa can significantly reduce the settlement to an acceptable control criterion. Settlement magnitude is influenced by pillar width but not obviously by the location of umbrella arch installed in twin tunnels.     

Dynamic evolution and the mechanism of modern gully agriculture regional function in the Loess Plateau

The agricultural regional type and function are the key theoretical issues in agricultural geography research. Gully agriculture in the Loess Plateau is a new regional type of agricultural system with the coupling development of the modern gully human-earth relationship. The study of its functional changes is of great practical significance for food security, rural revitalization and sustainable development of regional agriculture in the region of interest. This paper analyses the multifunctional change of gully agriculture in the Loess Plateau and its dynamic mechanism by using large-scale remote sensing data, topographic relief amplitude model, and spatial econometric model to understand internal implications for evolution differentiation at the basin level. The results show that: (1) The spatial concentration of production and supply function of agricultural products (APF) in the gully of the Loess Plateau gully is high, while the ecological conservation and maintenance function (ECF), employment and social security function (ESF), cultural heritage and leisure function (CRF) are relatively low. The four functions’ spatial distribution has revealed an apparent regularity. (2) APF has been significantly enhanced, which is mainly distributed in point clusters and strips in the farming and pastoral areas in northern Shaanxi to the Yanhe river basin. The high-value areas of ESF are clustered around the urbanized metropolitan circles and urban-rural staggered areas along the Great Wall. ECF is concentrated in areas with significant natural endowments and excellent ecological conditions. CRF is significantly higher in the municipal districts and the surrounding regional central cities. (3) There are noticeable differences in the gully agriculture regional function (GARF) evolution process due to the geographical environment and socio-economic development stages. In this regard, natural factors have tremendously affected APF, ESF, and ECF, while socio-economic factors greatly differ in the four functions. There are still differences in the driving mechanisms of modern gully agriculture evolution types; hence many critical policies in the Loess Plateau can directly affect the function evolution paths. The dynamic evolution of GARF can reflect the general law of rural human-earth system transition in gully areas, thereby providing policy ideas for high-quality development of agriculture in the Loess Plateau.     

芦山地震前的重力扰动

继2008年汶川8.0级大地震“突然”发生后,2013年4月20日芦山7.0地震的“突然”发生,再一次表明大地震短临监测的重要性和迫切性。芦山地震后,对中国大陆构造环境监测网络（简称“陆态网络”）连续重力台站的重力观测资料进行了处理分析,首次发现震前存在两种不同性质的重力扰动信号,周期分别为8~11 s和6~8 s。其中,周期为8~11 s的重力扰动信号从大震前1天开始逐渐增大,并于震中距大于1 570 km时消失;周期为6~8 s的重力扰动信号从大震前7天开始逐渐增大,能够被所有台站监测到。两种重力扰动信号可能反映了芦山地震孕震过程的两个不同阶段,对进一步揭示芦山地震孕震机制具有重要的参考意义。     

三江源生态工程实施前后长江源区宏观生态状况变化分析

基于NDVI时空序列数据,利用GLOPEM-CEVSA模型,本文估算并分析了长江源区1997-2012年植被覆盖度及植被净初级生产力时空变化特征,并在此基础上评估了生态工程实施前、后长江源区宏观生态状况变化。结果表明：工程实施后,长江源区宏观生态状况显著好转,植被覆盖度及植被净初级生产力明显增加。从多年平均值来看,工程实施后,植被覆盖度好转区域面积占植被区总面积的72.10%,净初级生产力增加区域面积占植被区总面积的73.82%;从变化趋势来看,植被覆盖度好转区域面积净增加13.02%,植被净初级生产力好转区域面积净增加24.62%。工程实施前后相比,各流域宏观生态状况恢复程度具有差异,其中楚玛尔河源头植被覆盖度上升最明显,通天河流域植被净初级生产力上升最明显。长江源区宏观生态状况的好转受益于气候的湿润化及生态工程的共同影响,若要全面有效改善仍需持续努力。