北京雷暴大风气候特征及短时临近预报方法

北京地区雷暴大风的预报准确率低而且时效短.为了提高对这种灾害性天气的预警能力,在气候统计的基础上,研究了潜势预报方法和临近预报算法.对1998-2007年134个雷暴大风过程的统计结果表明,北京地区绝大多数的雷暴大风具有下击暴流特征,而且冰雹的落区附近也是大风的爆发区之一.因此,负浮力的作用和对冰雹具有指示性意义的因子是研究雷暴大风预报方法应主要考虑的因素.500hPa环流背景分析表明,尽管绝大多数雷暴大风爆发时对流层中层有干空气侵入,但是还有少数个例产生在偏南暖湿气流中.目前,对后一类大风产生的机制仍然不清楚.研究表明,当对流层中层有干空气侵入时,有利于雷暴大风出现的环境条件是:下沉气流具有较大的不稳定性,同时对流层低层环境大气的温度直减率较大.此外,还讨论了经验指数--大风指数在北京地区的应用.基于上述的研究,形成了北京地区雷暴大风短时潜势预报方法,还使用相关分析和多元回归分析技术建立了基于雷达观测和环境条件的雷暴大风临近预报方程.个例分析表明,临近预报方程对于飑线和弓形回波等带来的地面大风具有一定的预报能力.     

我国大气中平均水汽含量与水分平衡的特征

本文利用我国1960—1969年整编的100余个台站高空资料及200多个气象站地面资料(除降水量站),根据大气中水分平衡方程,计算并分析了我国全年和各月的降水量、蒸发量、大气水汽含量及其变化量、地气间水分交换量和大气水汽输送量的时空分布,提供了我国大气中水分平衡气候特征。     

Raindrop Size Distribution Parameters Retrieved from Xinfeng C-Band Polarimetric Radar Observations

The objective of this research was to acquire a raindrop size distribution (DSDs) retrieved from C-band polarimetric radar observations scheme for the first time in south China.An observation period of the precipitation process was selected,and the shape-slope (μ-Λ) relationship of this region was statistically analyzed using the raindrop sample observations from the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD) at Xinfeng Station,Guangdong Province.Simulated data of the C-band polarimetric radar reflectivity Z_(HH)and differential reflectivity Z_(DR)were obtained through scattering simulation.The simulation data were combined with DSD fitting to determine the Z_(DR)-Λand log_(10)(Z_(HH)/N_0)-Λrelationships.Using Xinfeng C-band polarimetric radar observations Z_(DR)and Z_(HH),the raindrop Gamma size distribution parametersμ,Λ,and N_0were retrieved.A scheme for using C-band polarimetric radar to retrieve the DSDs was developed.This research revealed that during precipitation process,the DSDs obtained using the C-band polarimetric radar retrieval scheme are similar to the 2DVD observations,the precipitation characteristics of rainfall intensity (R),mass-weighted mean diameter (D_m) and intercept parameter (N_w) with time obtained by radar retrieval are basically consistent with the observational results of the 2DVD.This scheme establishes the relationship between the observations of the C-band polarimetric radar and the physical quantities of the numerical model.This method not only can test the prediction of the model data assimilation system on the convective scale and determine error sources,but also can improve the microphysical precipitation processes analysis and radar quantitative precipitation estimation.The present research will facilitate radar data assimilation in the future.     

A review of paired catchment studies for determining changes in water yield resulting from alterations in vegetation

Paired catchment studies have been widely used as a means of determining the magnitude of water yield changes resulting from changes in vegetation. This review focuses on the use of paired catchment studies for determining the changes in water yield at various time scales resulting from permanent changes in vegetation. The review considers long term annual changes, adjustment time scales, the seasonal pattern of flows and changes in both annual and seasonal flow duration curves. The paired catchment studies reported in the literature have been divided into four broad categories: afforestation experiments, deforestation experiments, regrowth experiments and forest conversion experiments. Comparisons between paired catchment results and a mean annual water balance model are presented and show good agreement between the two methodologies. The results highlight the potential underestimation of water yield changes if regrowth experiments are used to predict the likely impact of permanent alterations to a catchment's vegetation. An analysis of annual water yield changes from afforestation, deforestation and regrowth experiments demonstrates that the time taken to reach a new equilibrium under permanent land use change varies considerably. Deforestation experiments reach a new equilibrium more quickly than afforestation experiments. The review of papers reporting seasonal changes in water yield highlights the proportionally larger impact on low flows. Flow duration curve comparison provides a potential means of gaining a greater understanding of the impact of vegetation on the distribution of daily flows.     

华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地优化初探

首先分析了华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地布测现状及监测效能,继而依据跨断层流动形变测量规范及监测的可控性、均匀性、目的性以及监测场地监测效能等,结合该区域断裂活动及地震活动性研究结果,给出华北地区跨断层流动形变监测场地拟优化布设结果。该优化布设结果消除了华北地区跨断层流动形变网监测地震活动盲区,有助于提高该区跨断层流动形变网监测地震活动能力。     

近场强震动记录基线校正方法的振动台实验研究

为了获取近场永久位移,通常采用基线校正方法,对近场加速度记录进行基线校正并积分得到永久位移值,但这一结果主观性较强,其可靠性也往往缺乏验证。为了解决这一问题,本文提出了一种能产生包含永久位移振动过程的振动台实验方案,采用振动台加滑动机构的方法,模拟记录到永久位移台站测点的真实振动情况;在实验中分别采用加速度计、摄影测量方法分别直接得到加速度和位移时程,对加速度时程进行基线校正并积分得到位移时程,将其与直接获得的位移时程进行对比,以验证采用基线校正方法的有效性。实验结果表明,在实验室条件下采用现有的基线校正方法校正后,通过积分能得到可以接受的位移时程。     

塔里木盆地多期改造-晚期定型复合构造与油气战略选区

受关键构造变革期制约,叠合盆地具有分期差异变形特征。从变形角度分析,塔里木盆地可以追溯出5期主要的构造改造作用,即加里东中期、加里东晚期-海西早期、海西晚期、印支-燕山期和喜马拉雅期,并影响塔里木盆地的发展演化历史。通过对塔北、塔中和库车已知油气聚集区解剖表明:古生代多期改造形成的断裂、褶皱、隆升、剥蚀和岩溶作用,对台盆区巨型海相碳酸盐岩古岩溶油气藏的形成具有重要的控制作用;中、新生代多期改造过程,对前陆褶皱-冲断带大规模油气聚集成藏具有重要的控制作用;这些已知油气聚集区带都是在喜马拉雅晚期最终定型的,总体构成多期改造-晚期定型复合构造油气聚集模式。综合分析了塔里木新区分期差异构造变形特征,在此基础上,依据叠合盆地多期改造-晚期定型构造模式,对塔里木新区进行了区块评价和油气战略选区,认为巴楚隆起、麦盖提斜坡和西昆仑山前褶皱-冲断带是近期油气勘探突破的首选地区,塔东地区、塘古巴斯坳陷和阿瓦提断陷具有良好的油气勘探前景。     

中国近海天然气水合物找矿前景

天然气水合物是一种新型能源，在海底沉积物和陆上永远冻土带中均有广泛分布。西太平洋是全球三大天然气水合物成矿带之一，在其中已发现许多水合物矿床或矿点。中国近海，包括南海、东海和台湾东部海域，具备良好的天然气水合物成矿条件和找矿前景，并已在这些海域中发现了一系列的找矿标志。南海的西沙海槽、台湾西南陆坡和台西南盆地、笔架南盆地及其东缘增生楔、东沙群岛东南坡、南部陆坡区，东海的冲绳海槽和台湾东北部海域是中国近海最有利的天然气水合物找矿远景区。     

栖霞金矿床成矿流体地球化学研究

栖霞金矿床是胶东地区产在变质岩中的石英脉型金矿床较典型的代表。该矿床属中低温热液矿床，成矿流体的盐度较低，气相成分以Ｈ２Ｏ，ＣＯ２为主；液相成分中Ｎａ＾＋，Ｃａ＾２＋和Ｃｌ＾－的含量料高，相对贫Ｋ＾＋和Ｆ＾－，流体的成分与大气降水热液的相类似。     

阿尔泰造山带南缘昆格依特岩体LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年代学、岩石成因及其地质意义

昆格依特岩体出露于阿尔泰造山带南缘青河县大青格里河昆格依特一带,主要为角闪黑云英云闪长岩。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年结果显示,锆石的²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U年龄加权平均值为(403.4±7.4)Ma,表明该岩体形成于早泥盆世。岩体的SiO₂含量介于52.39%~71.89%之间,里特曼指数为0.68~1.53,A/CNK 值为0.76~1.06,属中钾、钙碱性、准铝质-弱过铝质岩石。具有富集Cs、Rb、Th、U等大离子亲石元素和轻稀土元素,相对亏损Nb、Ta、Hf、Ti等高场强元素和重稀土元素,弱的负Eu异常(δEu=0.56~0.86)的岛弧岩浆岩特征。结合区域地质资料,认为阿尔泰造山带南缘早泥盆世昆格依特岩体形成于活动大陆边缘的陆缘弧构造环境,是古亚洲洋俯冲过程中幔源的基性岩浆底侵下地壳使之熔融,并发生了岩浆混合和分异作用的产物。