Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

环境与灾害监测预报小卫星CCD数据质量评价

中国环境与灾害监测预报小卫星星座双星4部CCD传感器具备大范围、全天时环境与灾害监测等方面的能力,在空间覆盖与重复观测频率方面有很大的优势。结合美国陆地卫星TM数据,从几何精度、辐射质量2个方面定量分析了该卫星CCD传感器的数据质量。结果表明：①环境减灾卫星CCD数据无波段错位现象,有极小的畸变与扭曲（0.05%）,然...     

沈阳地区大雾天气的UPS订正预报方法

选用2005-2009年沈阳地区5个气象站点的气象资料,总结了沈阳地区雾天的时空分布规律.沈阳地区一年中近一半的时间出现轻雾,大雾年平均16.4天;轻雾和大雾的季节分布都呈夏、秋季多,春季少的态势;大雾多发时段在清晨.在数值预报的基础上,利用UPS预报方法,进一步做出大雾天气订正预报,建立沈阳地区大雾天气UPS订正预报方法.当数值预报有大雾时,如T-Txover（最高气温出现时段温度露点差）≤5℃则可预报有大雾,当-4℃＜T-Txover≤5℃时可预报未来会出现能见度小于等于500 m的浓雾;如T-Txover≤-4℃则预报未来会出现能见度小于等于200m的强浓雾.如T-Txover＞5℃则有暖湿平流时预报有大雾,无暖湿平流时预报不会出现大雾.     

台站闪电定位仪维护方法与技巧

通过对闪电定位仪的基本构造、日常维护、常见故障等进行分析,找出闪电定位仪维护中存在的问题,提出一些有实用价值的维护维修方法,供台站在工作中参考.     

Seasonal and regional differences in long-term changes in large mesozooplankton (>505 μm) biomass and abundance in a semi-enclosed subtropical bay

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - Obvious spatiotemporal heterogeneity is a distinct characteristic of ecosystems in subtropical bays. To aid targeted management and ecological restoration in...     

Vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in Haihe River Basin,China

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerabil- ity, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions （Class II WRRs）, third-class water resource regions （Class III WRRs）, Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.     

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江苏省煤炭资源保障程度及勘查研究

通过对江苏省煤炭需求和资源保障程度的分析,对省内资源潜力进行了预测评价,提出了煤炭资源勘查近期和中长期勘查部署方案。建议将赋有优等资源的徐沛区作为下一步工作重点区域,尤其是资源量较多的区域,更应优先考虑;苏南区预测储量有限,且分布零散,含煤性差,近期可不考虑投入工作,已有的工作成果可作为中长期远景规划的依据。     

A wind tunnel study of aeolian sand transport on a wetted sand surface using sands from tropical humid coastal southern China

This article reported a wind tunnel test of sediment transport related to surface moisture content and wind velocity using sands from tropical humid coastal area. A 1 mm-thick portion of surface sand was scraped using a self-made sediment sampler, and the gravimetric moisture content was determined. Sand transport was measured via a standard vertical sand trap with a 60 cm height. The result shows that the sand transport profile above the wet surface can be expressed with an exponential equation. In general, the influence of moisture content on sand transport profile mainly focuses on the bottom of the blowing sand cloud. Meanwhile, with moisture content increased, total sand transport dropped, and a relatively larger proportion is transported at greater heights. The vertical movement of particles on higher moisture surface (0.587% < M < 1.448%) is more sensitive to moisture content variation as compared to those on low wet surface (M < 0.587%), total sand transport rate tends to be rather low (0.99 g cm⁻¹ s⁻¹) when M > 1.448%. The total sand transport rate varying with moisture content is divided into three regions of differing gradient at the moisture contents of 0.587 and 1.448%. The gradient of the curve reflected the different influences of the various water forms in surface sediments. The higher moisture surface (M > 1.448%) merely functions as a transport plain for the saltation material. Surface moisture content was the dominant control factor for saltation activity between the moisture contents of 0.587 and 1.448%, wind velocity could resume control saltation after the surface dried to the extent (M < 0.587%).     

新型PTH-Ⅵ型气象参数测量仪的研制

介绍一种新型气象参数测量仪的主要技术指标和功能特点.该仪器使用了高准确度的HD9008TR温湿度传感器、MS5534C气压传感器,采用先进的电子线路设计,具有准确度高、稳定性好、可扩展性强、性能价格比高等特点,满足常规气象监测.