常德地区洪涝灾害加剧原因分析

利用沅水、澧水流域近５０年气象、水文、地理等方面的资料,分析了常德地区洪涝灾害的时空分布,着重探讨了９０年代洪涝灾害加剧的原因。     

中尺度非静力模式中常用气压分离技术的研究

分析了气压分离和不分离,在几种不同的层结情况下,垂直气压梯度的截断误差.结果表明:基本场取法不当,会引起巨大的截断误差,甚至和不分离时相当;反之,则较小.根据计算,提出了一种取基本场的方法,在一定条件下,可以使气压偏差的垂直梯度的截断误差比不分离时的相应误差小一个量级,从而,可以取较小的垂直分辨率.     

Joint observation of long period tremor signals with broadband seismometer,tiltmeter and gravimeter

We report here the observation result of joint observation of long period tremor signals with broadband seismome-ter,tiltmeter and gravimeter at the HUST(Huazhong University of Science and Technology)station.The observed data were compared and analyzed.Since 2005,the several tens of abnormal tremor signals which are weak,com-plex and duration of 2 to 3 days have been synchronously recorded by the different instruments.The tremor signals have the periodic domain in the range of 3 to 5 minutes,20 to 30 minutes and even more than 1 hour.The observa-tion shows such tremors are a physical existence.The analysis indicates that a part of the tremors caused by the typhoon from the western Pacific Ocean.These tremors have a close relationship with wind velocity of typhoon and distance between the typhoon center and the station.Except these,the cause of others is still unclear.     

2005年3月22日华南飑线的综合分析

2005年3月22日华南地区发生了一次飑线天气过程。利用常规观测、雷达回波、自动气象站资料及NCEP1°×1°的逐6小时资料,从天气形势、雷达回波、物理量场等多角度综合诊断分析了该飑线过程。结果表明:该过程具有低层增温、增湿,中高层降温、低湿的特征。飑线发生在快速东移的高空槽前上干冷、下暖湿的不稳定区域,华南地区700hPa低空急流的爆发及低层急流核向东传输对不稳定能量的突然释放有很大的触发作用。飑线系统在低空增温、增湿与对流层中层干侵入的相互作用下形成,产生大范围的雷雨大风、冰雹等强对流天气。     

Storm流式技术在地面气象数据处理中的应用

地面自动站气象数据的量级、观测传输频次日益增长,传输方式从传统的文本方式发展到消息传输,对数据处理时效有了更高的要求。该文提出采用Storm流式技术进行地面自动站气象数据的解码和入库,使用Spout节点连接外部数据源,将数据转化为Tuple,传递给解码Bolt、入库Bolt和DI/EI消息Bolt,分别进行实时的入库和监控,且达到灵活调整系统资源的目的。该应用与传统的简约流程对比,稳定性、处理效率、拓展性都有了显著提高。     

多时次EOF迭代方法在川渝伏旱预测中的应用

应用北太平洋海温资料,分析了川渝地区盛夏雨量与海温的联系,在关键海区海温与川渝伏旱气候非同步联系的基础上,建立了多时次海温EOF迭代方法,进行了川渝地区盛夏伏旱的短期气候预测.实际应用表明:以前期多时次海温为预报因子,通过历史独立预报试验建立的多时次EOF迭代伏旱预测模型,预见期长,准确率高,并可实现滚动预测,具有明显的预报技巧和应用价值.     

21世纪增暖情景下西北太平洋热带气旋频数的预估

利用IPCC发布的5个全球气候模式在高（SRES A2）、低（SRES B1）两种不同排放情景下的预报集成结果,对21世纪大尺度环境进行分析,进而对西北太平洋夏季热带气旋（TC）的频数进行预估。结果表明：两种情景下热带西北太平洋均呈现500 hPa位势高度偏高、太平洋东部海表温度偏高、低层菲律宾以东为异常反气旋性环流控制的特征。这种大尺度环境不利于TC生成,在高排放情景下或21世纪中叶后该环境特征更显著。未来TC频数总体呈减少的趋势,低排放情景下的TC频数变化趋势比高排放情境下平缓,TC频数存在年代际和年际变化。     

High-precision relocation of the aftershock sequence of the January 8, 2022, MS6.9 Menyuan earthquake

The 2022 Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake, which occurred on January 8, is the most destructive earthquake to occur near the Lenglongling (LLL) fault since the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake. We relocated the mainshock and aftershocks with phase arrival time observations for three days after the mainshock from the Qinghai Seismic Network using the double-difference method. The total length and width of the aftershock sequence are approximately 32 km and 5 km, respectively, and the aftershocks are mainly concentrated at a depth of 7–12 km. The relocated sequence can be divided into 18 km west and 13 km east segments with a boundary approximately 5 km east of the mainshock, where aftershocks are sparse. The east and west fault structures revealed by aftershock locations differ significantly. The west fault strikes EW and inclines to the south at a 71º–90º angle, whereas the east fault strikes 133º and has a smaller dip angle. Elastic strain accumulates at conjunctions of faults with different slip rates where it is prone to large earthquakes. Based on surface traces of faults, the distribution of relocated earthquake sequence and surface ruptures, the mainshock was determined to have occurred at the conjunction of the Tuolaishan (TLS) fault and LLL fault, and the west and east segments of the aftershock sequence were on the TLS fault and LLL fault, respectively. Aftershocks migrate in the early and late stages of the earthquake sequence. In the first 1.5 h after the mainshock, aftershocks expand westward from the mainshock. In the late stage, seismicity on the northeast side of the east fault is higher than that in other regions. The migration rate of the west segment of the aftershock sequence is approximately 4.5 km/decade and the afterslip may exist in the source region.     

四川地区震后应急会商资料快速产出系统的设计与实现

地震预报意见以大量资料为基础,依靠专家经验和多学科知识并通过会商讨论形成。显著地震发生后,快速、准确、有效地研判震情可为后期应急指挥和地震现场工作奠定基础。本文以Datist软件为平台,基于四川及邻区的基础资料,设计研发符合四川震情的震后会商资料快速产出系统,当四川及邻区发生中强地震时,通过该系统可在收到地震短信5分钟内以请求触发的方式快速产出应急会商资料,并以微信、PowerPoint和Word的形式将基础资料发送给分析预报人员,为后期趋势分析奠定基础。     

中国海洋的珊瑚-珊瑚礁: 南海中央区珊瑚-珊瑚礁生物多样性特征

珊瑚是地球上最古老的原住民,具有近6×108年的发育史,弱势群居、喜温和原地长成是珊瑚的基本特征。作者介绍了珊瑚-珊瑚礁的基本特征,综述了跨十年调查的研究区珍贵照片资料和相关认识,指出中国是全球主要的珊瑚-珊瑚礁国家,地位举足轻重;珊瑚-珊瑚礁作为地球生物多样性的代表,造岛、固礁、护鱼、防护岛岸流失,形成南海四大群岛280余座岛、礁、滩、沙,所构建庞大海洋生态系统是无与伦比的海洋生态资源和寸土寸金的南海海洋国土。提出划分南海珊瑚-珊瑚礁为中央区和周缘区2个分布区,阐述了南海中央区珊瑚-珊瑚礁的基本特征,系统汇集报道了间隔10年2个科考航次调查在浅水礁盘浮潜、至20 m水深浅潜-深潜和礁盘及开展岛、礁、滩、沙地质调查的发现,包括科学定名46种六放石珊瑚和6种八放软珊瑚等成果,同时,收集了西沙、中沙、东沙和南沙群岛海域的相关调查航次珊瑚照片;进一步阐述了单体环礁和复合环礁的特征及分布,并进行了初步对比,指出永乐环礁是南海唯一一个真正的切合达尔文模式的环礁,也是环礁发展到最高阶段的产物,构成现代海洋珊瑚-珊瑚礁形成演化研究最好的天然实验室。