"2006-2020年中国地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究"项目成果介绍

本文详细介绍了“2006~2020年中国地震危险区与地震灾害损失预测研究”项目的立项背景、目标、所开展的主要工作、取得的成果、研究成果的社会效益和对该领域研究未来工作的展望。     

Organic carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes in the intertidal sediments from the Yangtze Estuary, China

The natural isotopic compositions and C/N elemental ratios of sedimentary organic matter were determined in the intertidal flat of the Yangtze Estuary. The results showed that the ratios of carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes were respectively −29.8‰ to − 26.0‰ and 1.6‰–5.5‰ in the flood season (July), while they were −27.3‰ to − 25.6‰ and 1.7‰–7.8‰ in the dry season (February), respectively. The δ¹³C signatures were remarkably higher in July than in February, and gradually increased from the freshwater areas to the brackish areas. In contrast, there were relatively complex seasonal and spatial changes in stable nitrogen isotopes. It was also reflected that δ¹⁵N and C/N compositions had been obviously modified by organic matter diagenesis and biological processing, and could not be used to trace the sources of organic matter at the study area. In addition, it was considered that the mixing inputs of terrigenous and marine materials generally dominated sedimentary organic matter in the intertidal flat. The contribution of terrigenous inputs to sedimentary organic matter was roughly estimated according to the mixing balance model of stable carbon isotopes.     

对推进地震预测、预报工作的一些政策问题的讨论

推进地震预测、预报不能只是地震局工作的改进,国家对待地震预测、预报的工作必须有一个政策的调整。当前地震预测预报工作基本上沿用气象工作的模式,但地震预报和气象预报的水平完全不在一个水平上。地震预测预报工作要把科学研究放到首位,在地震工作的管理体制、财政体制方面都应有一个大的调整。     

上海地震台阵对2004年12月26日印度洋地震的精确定位

通过对上海地震台网和上海地震台阵对2004年12月26日印度洋地震的定位结果与NEIC定位结果的比较，得出上海台阵定位结果比上海台网的定位结果更加精确。     

临沂市地质灾害预警预报与指挥系统的设计与实现

本文结合国内外有关地质灾害预警预报的相关理论研究,论述了临沂市地质灾害预警预报与指挥系统的总体框架和功能设计,介绍了本系统的预警预报、应急指挥、态势标绘等功能。系统旨在逐步提高临沂市的地质灾害预警预报技术水平,为各级政府制定国民发展计划和城镇规划提供重要的科学依据,为减灾防灾提供技术支撑。     

国家地缘脆弱性探索——缅甸案例及对中国地缘战略启示

当今国际地缘政治经济格局正处于剧烈变动中,并对缅甸地缘环境的复杂性及地缘脆弱性产生深刻影响。缅甸所在的大湄公河次区域日益成为世界重要地缘政治力量博弈前沿和焦点。系统研究缅甸国家地缘脆弱性,对于中国西部大开发、“一带一路”及周边地缘环境建设具有重要战略意义。本文基于地缘政治及人地关系地域系统等学科理论,规范分析与实证分析相结合,从暴露性、敏感性和适应性等方面构建了国家地缘脆弱性研究框架,系统探索了缅甸典型的国家地缘脆弱性特征。资源环境禀赋、内部地域结构等引致的经济政治体系、社会文化传承等方面是缅甸脆弱性的本底特征,而缅甸与中国的地缘关系及决策则从根本上影响其地缘战略位态。缅甸地缘政治脆弱性及其与中国的相互依赖使之成为西方“U型封堵大陆战略”的薄弱点和今后角逐的着力点,也是中国解围破局重要的地缘战略出口。近期中国应通过“一带一路”孟中印缅经济走廊建设,大力加强中缅之间政治、经济、文化等各方面友好关系。     

中国周边地缘影响力的建模与测算——以南亚为例

当今国际社会已经进入了大规模实力转移的时代,如何顺应当代国际关系中实力结构变化的趋势,科学合理地测度一国在周边地缘环境中的影响力,成为国家外交政策和周边战略研究的重要内容。本文基于权力理论、硬实力和软实力理论、相互依赖理论,在突出主导因素和可操作原则的基础上,构建了国家地缘影响力的指标体系,定量测算了近10 年来中国在南亚各国和南亚地区的地缘影响力。结果表明：①2012 年中国与南亚七国的综合实力比较,按照差距从小到大排序,分别为印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡、尼泊尔、不丹和马尔代夫。说明国家本身的地缘重量,尤其是硬实力依旧是综合实力的重要支撑。②近10 年来,中国在南亚地区的地缘影响力呈逐年上升趋势。其中,中国在不丹、孟加拉国和尼泊尔的地缘影响力最大,而在斯里兰卡和马尔代夫最小。表明地缘影响力受国家间地理位置的制约,呈距离衰减的空间分布。③国家的实力和地缘影响力并非成正比关系。国家实力强大并不能代表其对外的影响力就强大。④无论在政策制度、国家形象还是文化交流方面,中国与南亚各国间的软实力差距不大。     

关于数字化记录中前兆信号的分析

介绍了如何用MATLAB工具软件—小波分析的基本理论对数字信号进行数字滤波,着重分析和研究了呼和浩特地震台形变观测资料出现各种信号,提出了小波分析理论对台站实际工作的重要性。     

新疆伊犁盆地巩留凹陷航空高光谱油气探测

为了进一步了解伊犁盆地巩留凹陷油气勘探潜力,为该地区下一步油气勘查提供依据和新的技术支持,利用航空高光谱SASI数据,采用混合调制匹配滤波(MTMF)方法,在伊犁盆地阿吾拉勒西段山前提取了油气烃信息,主要分布在二叠系晓山萨依组,反映了油页岩层的分布和油气渗漏地段,地表油气渗漏主要受断裂控制,与油气渗漏有关的蚀变主要为粘土化,碳酸盐化次之。在巩留凹陷提取了粘土化和碳酸盐化信息,主要分布在拜石墩与阿克吐别克乡之间,通过干扰因素的排除,在拜石墩南部筛选了四片油气微渗漏区。最后,结合区域地质、物探资料综合分析,认为该地区油气成藏和排烃可能始于燕山早期,在喜山期遭到严重破坏,盆地的不对称压陷,加速了油气的垂直和侧向运移,在盆地内部形成微渗漏,在阿吾拉勒山前沿着断裂逸散至地表形成宏渗漏,巩留凹陷拜石墩南部微渗漏地区对应深部二叠系褶皱带是下一步油气勘查有利目标区。     

Reservoir characteristics and main controlling factors of oil sand in Houba area,northwestern Sichuan Basin,China

Houba oil sand in frontier Longmenshan Mountain is one of the most typically important unconventional resources. The basic reservoir characteristics of oil sand and the main factors affecting reservoir quality were examined in this article based on porosity, permeability, and mercury porosimetry measurements; thin section analyses; SEM observation; and X-ray diffraction analysis. This study shows that the oil-bearing sandstone reservoir is mainly medium?coarse-grained sublitharenite and litharenite. The main pore type is intergranular pores, including residual primary intergranular pores, dissolved intergranular pores, and dissolved intragranular pores; fractures are common in this study area. The quality of sandstone reservoir is of high porosity and high permeability with a high oil saturation of 89.84 %. It is indicated that the main controlling factors of the reservoir in the study area include deposition, diagenesis, and tectonism. Deposition laid a foundation to porosity evolution, and channel sand is the most favorable depositional facies for the reservoir. Diagenetic alterations are the keys to reservoir evolution; dissolution and chlorite coatings cementation play an effective role in the generation and preservation of pores. Compaction, carbonate cementation, and quartz overgrowth cause many damages to the reservoir porosity. Fractures caused by structural breakages can improve the reservoir permeability and they also can provide fluid migration pathways to the late corrosion, which formed a lot of corroded fissures as reservoir and percolation spaces.