不同下垫面空气动力学参数的研究

文中利用中国科学院沙漠研究所与日本国家农业环境技术研究所合作于1990—1994年在中国内蒙古自治区奈曼市半干旱地区沙丘和植被区下垫面观测的微气象数据,根据Monin-Obukhov相似性理论,计算了重度干扰草原、中度干扰草原、轻度干扰草原、无干扰草原、沙丘、沙丘内地、草地、稻田、小麦田、大豆田和玉米田11种下垫面的空气动力学参数粗糙度长度z0,零平面位移d,摩擦速度u*,并分析了它们与水平风速u和Richardson数的关系,比较了不同人为干扰草原生态系统条件下的空气动力学特征。结果表明:地表生物量和覆盖率随着人为干扰强度的增加而减少。不同人为干扰下垫面的粗糙长度与生物量和植被高度以及地表起伏程度有着密切关系;Richardson数也是其影响因子。风速、粗糙度都与摩擦速度成正相关,但对于不同下垫面有所不同,从中可以看到草地对沙漠化有一定的防治作用。同一种下垫面不同时期的空气动力学参数也存在差异。这些结果对建立陆面过程和区域气候模式具有重要的意义。     

应用自激励门限自回归模式对旱涝游程序列的模拟和预报

在用AR、ARMA等线性模式对气候序列进行拟合和预报时,由于气候序列中存在着非线性变化,所以拟合和预报效果往往不太理想。本文首次用非线性自激励门限自回归模式(SETAR)对由北京511年(1470—1980年)历史旱涝记录变换的湿涝(干旱)游程记录进行了模拟和预报,解决了长期以来预报方程不能随转折点变更的问题。拟合和预报结果表明:门限自回归模式的拟合和预报效果比线性AR模式有明显提高。AR模式只能预报出2年长度以下的游程转折点,而SETAR模式能较准确地预报出3年长度以上的游程转折点。这可能是因为在预报过程中SETAR模式能按游程转折点更新模式,而且模式建立时不要求序列具有平稳性的缘故。     

东北冷涡持续活动的分析研究

本文首先分析了东北冷涡的持续性活动特征，然后讨论了东亚大气10～20天低频振荡及瞬变扰动对东北冷涡持续活动的影响。结果表明，准双周振荡在我国东北地区十分活跃，从时间连续的低频天气图上发现，该地区附近周期性循环出现的低频气旋同东北冷涡的形成和发展关系密切，并且其传播路径也较有规律。另外，本文还通过→E矢量分析以及月平均准地转位涡的收支计算，研究了东亚大气瞬变扰动对形成时间平均冷涡的影响，得出，在时间平均东亚阻高／东北冷涡偶极子系统控制的区域附近有瞬变扰动动能向时间平均气流动能转换，同时这里也存在有明显的→E矢量辐合，导致平均西风减弱，而有利于经向环流的发展。时间平均气流的位涡平流不利于阻高／冷涡偶极子系统的存在，且使偶极子系统高、低压中心的经向距离拉大，而瞬变扰动的位涡输送则有利于冷涡高位涡值和阻高低位涡值在原地维持，阻止它们向下游传播。     

一次梅雨暴雨过程的数值模拟

利用中尺度10层湿模式对一次梅雨暴雨过程作了数值模拟,较好地模拟了次天气或中间尺度系统的演变。由模拟结果分析表明: 1.形成暴雨的次天气或中间尺度系统的演变,雨带、暴雨中心位置和强度变化在低层涡度场上反映最清晰。与暴雨中心直接关联的是低层正涡度中心。这次过程中,两次正涡度中心的东移形成了前、后两次降水。 2.当低层正涡度中心移近或叠置在高层负涡度中心之下时,其强度增强,中层上升运动与暴雨也加强。它们是流场上高、低空急流之间动力耦合作用的结果。 3.雨区上空,边界层顶附近存在着一个主要表现为湿度逆增的湿暖盖——θ_(?e)高值中心。它与强风暴中的暖盖不同。此湿暖盖的形成和维持与西南急流输送暖湿气流有关。它的存在不仅有利于暴雨区水汽和能量的辐合,还有利于积云尺度对流的不断诱发,而且它的存在更构成了中层为不稳定,低层为稳定这一对流层的层结结构特点,从而使不稳定的对流降水叠加在稳定性降水之上,构成了梅雨锋大暴雨。     

Application of a cloud-texture analysis scheme to the cloud cluster structure recognition and rainfall estimation in a mesoscale rainstorm process

It is thought that satellite infrared (IR) images can aid the recognition of the structure of the cloud and aid the rainfall estimation. In this article, the authors explore the application of a classification method relevant to four texture features, viz. energy, entropy, inertial-quadrature and local calm, to the study of the structure of a cloud cluster displaying a typical meso-scale structure on infrared satellite images. The classification using the IR satellite images taken during 4–5 July 2003, a time when a meso-scale torrential rainstorm was occurring over the Yangtze River basin, illustrates that the detailed structure of the cloud cluster can be obviously seen by means of the neural network classification method relevant to textural features, and the relationship between the textural energy and rainfall indicates that the structural variation of a cloud cluster can be viewed as an exhibition of the convection intensity evolvement. These facts suggest that the scheme of following a classification method relevant to textural features applied to cloud structure studies is helpful for weather analysis and forecasting.     

Impacts of Global Emissions of CO, NOx, and CH4 on China Tropospheric Hydroxyl Free Radicals

Using the global chemistry and transport model MOZART,the simulated distributions of tropospheric hydroxyl free radicals(OH) over China and its sensitivities to global emissions of carbon monoxide(CO),nitrogen oxide(NO x),and methane(CH 4) were investigated in this study.Due to various distributions of OH sources and sinks,the concentrations of tropospheric OH in east China are much greater than in west China.The contribution of NO + perhydroxyl radical(HO 2) reaction to OH production in east China is more pronounced than that in west China,and because of the higher reaction activity of non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOCs),the contributions to OH loss by NMVOCs exceed those of CO and take the dominant position in summer.The results of the sensitivity runs show a significant increase of tropospheric OH in east China from 1990 to 2000,and the trend continues.The positive effect of double emissions of NO x on OH is partly offset by the contrary effect of increased CO and CH 4 emissions:the double emissions of NO x will cause an increase of OH of 18.1%-30.1%,while the increases of CO and CH 4 will cause a decrease of OH of 12.2%-20.8% and 0.3%-3.0%,respectively.In turn,the lifetimes of CH 4,CO,and NO x will increase by 0.3%-3.1% with regard to double emissions of CH 4,13.9%-26.3% to double emissions of CO and decrease by 15.3%-23.2% to double emissions of NO x.     

A numerical study on the meso-scale pollutant dispersion over a sloped surface in the stable boundary layer

A numerical model is used to study the properties of pollutant dispersion over a large uniformly-sloped surface in the stable atmospheric boundary layer. By simulating the structure of boundary layer flow to improve the advective wind field and vertical eddy diffusivities included in the advection-diffusion equa-tion, this numerical model permits an estimation of the distribution of pollutant concentration for more real-istic atmospheric diffusion conditions.     

Experiments of DSAEF_LTP Model with Two Improved Parameters for Accumulated Precipitation of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over Southeast China

The Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) utilises an operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for the forecast track, while the precipitation forecast is obtained by finding analog cyclones, and making a precipitation forecast from an ensemble of the analogs. This study addresses TCs that occurred from 2004 to 2019 in Southeast China with 47 TCs as training samples and 18 TCs for independent forecast experiments. Experiments use four model versions. The control experiment DSAEF_LTP_1 includes three factors including TC track, landfall season, and TC intensity to determine analogs. Versions DSAEF_LTP_2, DSAEF_LTP_3, and DSAEF_LTP_4 respectively integrate improved similarity region, improved ensemble method, and improvements in both parameters. Results show that the DSAEF_LTP model with new values of similarity region and ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_4) performs best in the simulation experiment, while the DSAEF_LTP model with new values only of ensemble method (DSAEF_LTP_3) performs best in the forecast experiment. The reason for the difference between simulation (training sample) and forecast (independent sample) may be that the proportion of TC with typical tracks (southeast to northwest movement or landfall over Southeast China) has changed significantly between samples. Forecast performance is compared with that of three global dynamical models (ECMWF, GRAPES, and GFS) and a regional dynamical model (SMS-WARMS). The DSAEF_LTP model performs better than the dynamical models and tends to produce more false alarms in accumulated forecast precipitation above 250 mm and 100 mm. Compared with TCs without heavy precipitation or typical tracks, TCs with these characteristics are better forecasted by the DSAEF_LTP model.     

Sensitivity study of the seasonal mean circulation in the northern South China Sea

A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea （SCS） is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors.     

基于GIS的南宁市细网格立体农业气候资源分析研究

根据气象台站最新30年的气候观测资料和台站地理信息,建立了南宁市主要气候要素的空间分析模型。在GIS的支持下,对无测站地区500 m×500 m网格单元上的气候要素值进行了推算,并利用反距离权重插值法进行残差订正,制作了南宁市农业气候资源的细网格立体分布图,分析了南宁市气候资源的特点及时空分布规律,为该市气候资源的合理开发利用提供了科学依据。