三重加权变形监测预测模型及应用

针对GM(1,1)建模过程存在背景值、时间因素和初始条件3方面的不足,该文提出三重加权TPGM(1,1)预测模型。通过对背景值进行加权生成新的背景值,建立PGM(1,1)模型;在PGM(1,1)基础上考虑到时间因素,在求解灰参数时进行第2次加权建立DPGM(1,1)模型;最后考虑到初始条件对预测模型的影响,在DPGM(1,1)基础上进行第3次加权,建立TPGM(1,1)模型。通过实例分析,比较GM(1,1)、PGM(1,1)、DPGM(1,1)、TPGM(1,1)4种模型在变形监测数据处理中的拟合和预测结果,表明三重加权TPGM(1,1)模型拟合效果更好、预测精度更高;该模型具有前3种模型的优点,同时弥补了传统GM(1,1)存在的不足。     

遥感影像超分辨率处理方法与研究进展

随着人们对影像高分辨率需求的不断增加,图像超分辨率技术已成为相关研究领域的热点之一。针对在遥感领域并非所有的超分辨率方法都可用的现状,该文按照遥感影像超分辨率处理的流程,将超分辨率问题分为退化模型、配准、重建和精度评定4大模块。对于其中每一模块的理论、常用方法与研究进展进行了较全面的综述及比较分析。最后对这一领域的未来发展进行思考和展望。     

测量机器人在土方工程审计中的应用

随着现代社会的飞速发展,传统工程审计方法已不适于当前要求,大量新技术被应用到审计工作中来,而其中的高精度智能测量设备及先进计算机处理技术在工程审计中被越来越广泛地应用。据此,探讨了测量机器人在审计预算中的方法,将其应用在南京某土方挖填工程的审计工作中,并对工程预算数据进行了采集及计算分析,效果良好。     

Research on Formation Mechanisms of Hot Dry Rock Resources in China

As an important geothermal resource, hot dry rock(HDR) reserves have been studied in many countries. HDR resources in China have huge capacity and have become one of the most important resources for the potential replacement of fossil fuels. However, HDR resources are difficult to develop and utilise. Technologies for use with HDR, such as high–temperature drilling, reservoir characterisation, reservoir fracturing, microseismic monitoring and high–temperature power stations, originate from the field of oil and drilling. Addressing how to take advantage of these developed technologies is a key factor in the development of HDR reserves. Based on the thermal crustal structure in China, HDR resources can be divided into four types: high radioactive heat production, sedimentary basin, modern volcano and the inner–plate active tectonic belt. The prospective regions of HDR resources are located in South Tibet, West Yunnan, the southeast coast of China, Bohai Rim, Songliao Basin and Guanzhong Basin. The related essential technologies are relatively mature, and the prospect of HDR power generation is promising. Therefore, analysing the formation mechanisms of HDR resources and promoting the transformation of technological achievements, large–scale development and the utilisation of HDR resources can be achieved in China.     

Triterpenols as Proxies for Tracking the Mangrove Evolution in China

正Objective Located at the interface of terrestrial and marine ecosystems,mangroves are particularly sensitive to environmental changes.They provide a sedimentary sink for organic carbon,whereby core samples could provide detailed records of mangrove evolution.Human induced,rapid environmental changes in recent years require a better understanding of the mangrove ecosystems evolution in the past,by reconstructing the past mangrove     

Laboratory Simulation of the Formation Process of Surface Geochemical Anomalies Applied to Hydrocarbon Exploration

The formation mechanisms and processes of geochemical anomalies used as proxies in surface geochemistry exploration (SGE) have not been well understood. Previous studies cannot realize 3D measurement of microseeping hydrocarbons from reservoirs to the surface, which made it difficult to understand the features and pathways of deep hydrocarbon microseepages. Understanding the processes of hydrocarbon microseepages will contribute to the acceptance and effectiveness of surface geochemistry. Based on a simplified geological model of hydrocarbon microseepages, including hydrocarbon reservoir, direct caprock, overlying strata and Quaternary sediments, this work established a 3D experimental system to simulate the mechanisms and processes of deep hydrocarbon microseepes extending to the surface. The dispersive halos of microseeping hydrocarbons in the subsurface were adequately described by using this 3D experimental system. Results indicate that different migration patterns of hydrocarbons above the point gas source within the simulated caprock and overlying strata can be reflected by the ratio of i-butane to n-butane (i-C4/n-C4), which follow diffusion and infiltration (buoyancy) mechanisms. This is not the case for vertical measurement lines far from the point gas source. A vertical gas flow in the form of a plume was found during hydrocarbon microseepage. For sampling methods, the high-density grid sampling is favorable for delineating prospecting targets. Hydrocarbon infiltration or buoyancy flow occurs in the zones of infiltration clusters, coupling with a diffusion mechanism at the top of the water table and forming surface geochemical anomalies. These results are significant in understanding hydrocarbon microseepage and interpreting SGE data.     

淤泥质海岸入海河口闸下港道河相关系

以江苏沿海北部的射阳河闸下港道为原型,建立二维水动力及泥沙输运概化数学模型,模拟了淤泥质海岸闸下港道淤积过程。分别在不考虑径流年内分配变化和考虑径流年内分配变化的情况下,研究了入海径流对港道内水沙动力和冲淤演变的影响。参考前人研究成果,结合量纲和谐准则,根据模型的计算结果,建立了淤泥质海岸闸下港道年均平衡流量与汛期排水比例、河床断面积、外海潮差、潮波变形、港道长度等因素间的河相关系式,对在实际情况中达到动态冲淤平衡的某条特定港道,可简化为港道年均流量与河床断面积间关系式的简化形式,并通过分析实测资料,对公式的简化形式加以佐证。     

耦合长期预报的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型

为提高跨流域引水工程受水水库引水有效性,研究了耦合长期径流预报信息的跨流域引水受水水库调度模型。首先选取汛期径流预报信息,采用径流预报概率修正先验概率来描述径流的不确定性,建立了贝叶斯随机动态规划模型(BSDP-LTF)。然后将模型应用于碧流河水库,并与仅考虑径流相关的随机动态规划模型(SDP-I)、仅考虑长期预报信息的随机动态规划模型(SDP-LTF)进行比较。比较结果得出在供水保证率基本一致且不增加调度风险的情况下,BSDP-LTF模型相比SDP-I、SDP-LTF模型,可分别减少引水8.2%、4.1%。表明贝叶斯随机动态规划模型BSDP-LTF有效改进了径流描述,提高了跨流域引水的有效性。     

Fifteen Years of Ocean Observations with China Argo

For 15 years since the beginning of China Argo project, China has deployed over 350 profiling floats in Pacific and Indian ocean, and constructed China Argo ocean observing network. Moreover, we have setup the Argo data receiving, processing and distributing system, and developed various Argo data products using Argo observations, which has promoted the progress of ocean data sharing in China. The abundant Argo data have become a main data source in oceanic and atmospheric basic researches and operational applications. A batch of important achievements in basic research and operational application have been brought, e.g. in aspects of tropical cyclone (typhoon), ocean circulation, meso-scale eddy, turbulence, heat/salt storage and transport and water mass, as well as in ocean, atmosphere/climate operational forecasting and predicting. With the extension of the international Argo program from “Core Argo” to “Global Argo”, we are faced with great challenges in the long-term maintaining and sustained developing of our Argo ocean observing network. It is suggested that we should take the opportunity to construct China regional Argo ocean observing network as soon as possible in adjacent northwestern Pacific and Indian ocean using Chinese BeiDou profiling floats, which will make us to take responsibility and obligation of a big country for addressing global climate changes and preventing natural disasters.