Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867     

EFFECT OF LIGHT INTENSITY ON THE TOTAL LIPID AND FATTY ACID COMPOSITION OF SIX STRAINS OF MARINE DIATOMS

The effect of light intensity ( 1500 Ix and 5000 Ix) on the total lipid and fatty acid composition of six strains of marine diatoms Cylindrotheca fusiformis (B211 ), Phaeodactylum tricornutum (Bl14, Bl18 and B221) Nitzschia closterium (B222) and Chaetoceros gracilis (B13) was investigated.The total lipids of B13, Bl14, and B211 grown at 5000 Ix were lower than those grown at 1500 Ix. No evident changes were observed in Bl18, B221 and B222. Fatty acid composition changed considerably at different light intensity although no consistent correlation between the relative proportion of a single FA and light intensity. The major fatty acids of the 6 strains were 14:0, 16:0, 16:l(n- 7) and 20:5(n-3) . Cylindrothecafusiformis had high percentage of 20:4n - 6 (9.2 - 10.9% ) . The total polyunsaturated fatty acid /rl all 6 strains decreased with increasing light intensity. The percentage of the highly unsaturated fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) decreased with increasing light intensity in all strains except Chaetoceros gracilis.     

广东省拖网网囊调查

为实施中华人民共和国国家标准《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》,对广东省范围内拖网网囊现状进行摸底调查,结果表明,广东省沿海拖网渔船现用网囊网目尺寸(内径)在16.7～35.2 mm范围内,总体平均为27 mm,均未能达到1989年国家技术监督局发布的中华人民共和国国家标准--《南海区拖网网囊最小网目尺寸》--内径39 mm.     

维生素E醋酸酯对鱼油脂肪酸含量变化的影响

新鲜鱼油中添加05、0、2505、00 mg/kg 4种不同浓度的维生素E醋酸酯,在实验的第6、14、28、36和68天测定鱼油中的脂肪酸含量。结果表明:在500 mg/kg添加量内,维生素E醋酸酯对鱼油中脂肪酸含量没有显著性影响(P>0.05)。在实验期间,EPA(C20:5)、DHA(C22:6)、亚油酸(C18:2)含量明显下降,ARA(C20:4)、亚麻酸(C18:3)先升后降,棕榈酸(C16:1)逐步上升;C14含量逐渐增加,C17则先降后升,C16和C18在实验后期有较大提高。维生素E醋酸酯对鱼油中不饱和脂肪酸效用系数大小依次为:ARA>EPA>DHA>C18:3>0>C16:1>C18:2>C18:1,对ARA抗氧化效用最大,效用系数达到10.193%,C20:5为0.490%,C22:6为0.364%;维生素E醋酸酯对饱和脂肪酸效用系数大小依次为:C14>C17>0>C18>C16。     

EFFECT OF NITRATE AND PHOSPHATE ON ACCUMULATION OF β-CAROTENE ISOMERS IN DUNALIELLA SALINA

DunaIiella salina, a halotolerent unicellular green alga, can accurmulate a Iarge amount of β-caroteneunder environmental conditions. The isorners of β-carotene extIacted from D. salina culturedin medium with different nitrate and phosphate concentrations were analysed by HPLC with Alox-Talumins column. At least six isomers were found in different proportions depending on the culture me-dia's nitrate and/or phosphate concentrations. Nitrate and/or phosphae defidency was conducive tothe accumulation of totaI cis isomers but not of al1 trans isomer. lt is sUggeSted that 1 mmol/L KNO_3and 0.1 mmol/L KH_2, PO_4 are favourable for accumulation of total cis β-carotene.     

Progresses in geology and hazards analysis of Tianchi Volcano

A number of different lahars have been recognized from a systematic survey of a mapping project. The high setting temporamre feature of the deposits indicates a relationship between the lahar and the Millennium eruption event of Tianchi Volcano. The lahars caused a dramatic disaster. Recognize of the huge avalanche scars and deposits around Tianchi Volcano imply another highly destructive hazard. Three types of different texture of the avalanche deposits have been recognized. There was often magma mixing processes during the Millennium eruption of Tianchi Volcano, indicating a mixing and co-eruption regime of the eruption.     

西部调水应全面综合规划

以往的南水北调工程局限在长江流域内,没有谈到从藏东调水。西线调水的方案很多,原有的规划是在本流域内.现在是跨流域调水。到底如何选取调水目标?那些地区是真缺水?调水顺序如何?应做全面和系统的规划,规划中要有西部需水的总体规划。 对于雅鲁藏布江的调水工程也要有全面的综合规划。供水和调水区可调多少水.要从总的经济效益来评价。这应是多学科、多方面专家共同讨论的问题。     

The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater and the interaction of copper with humic matter

The anodic stripping voltammetry with physically-coating mercury film electrode was used to investigate the complexing action of trace heavy metals in seawater with organic ligands. The apparent copper complexing capacity of seawater was determined by titrating the organic ligands in natural seawater with standard ionic copper solution. The complexing actions of copper in seawater with humic acid (HA) or fulvic acid (FA) were investigated by titrating copper in seawater with HA or FA solution. The equilibrium time, electrodeposition potential, and effect of pH etc. were investigated respectively. The results show that the interaction of copper in seawater with organic matter is a fast process. At natural pH, HA or FA tend to act with copper in seawater to form nonlabile complexes. During experimental electrode process, these complexes did not significantly dissociate. The experimental results were calculated according to 1∶1 complex formation.     

The global joule heat production rate and the AE index

The accuracy of the AE index as a measure of the joule heat production rate is examined for a typical substorm event on 18 March 1978 by estimating the global joule heat production rate, as a function of time, using data obtained from the IMS six meridian chains. In spite of the fact that the AE index had had an initial slow growth which was followed by a rapid growth, the joule heat production rate attained a high level during the slow growth and thus their variations were considerably different from those of the AE index. Therefore, although the AE index is statistically linearly related to the global joule heat production rate, one should be cautious in assuming that details of time variations of the AE index during individual events represent those of the joule heat production rate.