回归分析方法在地震科学应用中的问题与探讨

分析了回归分析方法在地震科学应用中存在的问题,提出了按变量之间的物理关系进行分类回归的新观点。针对实际地震问题给出了具体的分类方案,从理论上论述了不同类型问题采用不同的回归方法的必要性。通过对实际地震问题分析,剖析了现有回归分析方法的优缺点和适用条件。在此基础上,对不同类型统计问题如何选用适当的回归分析方法提出了合理的建议。     

Comparison between earthquake magni-tudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph network (II): Surface wave magnitude

Introduction Earthquake magnitude is the most common measure of an earthquake′s size,and is one of the basic parameters of an earthquake.There are three most familiar scales of earthquake magnitude:ML(local earthquake magnitude),MS(surface wave magnitude)and mB/mb(body wave magni-tude).Richter(1935)introduced ML when studying earthquakes in Southern California.In1945,Gutenberg(1945a)put forward surface wave magnitude scale to determine earthquake magnitude(MS)using surface waves(20s)of s…     

查表法设计华北地区最大震级时间序列模糊预测系统

本文介绍了查表法设计模糊系统(FSLE)的方法与原理,然后基于该方法建立了华北地区及主要地震带最大震级时间序列的预测模型,并进行了预测内符检验。分析认为,该方法的建模与预测精度较高,模型外推泛化能力较强,原理简单直观,计算结果稳健。因此,FSLE方法可作为地震趋势建模与预测分析工作中的一种有效工具。     

利用卫星云图定量分析副热带高压活动的方法及应用

利用数字图像处理方法，设计了一种多重处理的算法，从卫星云图提取定量信息，定量描述副高强度和演变趋势，并应用于预报业务。应用实践表明，这些方法具有客观、定量、自动等优点，在实际使用中可客观定量地跟踪和预报副高演变，对做好广西前汛期暴雨预报有较大的帮助。     

鲁北济阳坳陷沾化凹陷东部潜山的发育及油气成藏控制因素

通过对沾化凹陷东部主要断裂发育演化的特征和主要地震测线的平衡剖面、伸展率分析,对该地区潜山发育过程及其与盆地演化的关系进行了研究,并就潜山油气成藏的控制因素进行了分析.结果表明,沾化凹陷东部潜山发育可以划分为早-中三叠世、晚三叠世、早-中侏罗世的潜山发育前期,晚侏罗世-白垩纪的潜山发育期,古近纪的潜山改造、定型期和新近纪-第四纪的潜山成藏期,断裂活动是本区潜山形成演化的主控因素.沾化凹陷东部潜山油气成藏主要受控于该区中、新生代盆地的叠合关系,中生代凸起和古近纪凹陷的叠合部位是最有利的潜山油气成藏区,中生代凸起和古近纪凸起的叠合部位不利于潜山成藏,往往形成潜山披覆背斜油气藏.     

2O世纪冶金地质化探工作十大创新成果

文章总结了20世纪冶金地质化探工作中的10项有创新、并取得显著找矿效果的成果：找金矿盲矿体的构造叠加晕模式、汞气测量和热释汞测量寻找隐伏矿床、典型有色金属矿床地球化学异常模式研究、中国主要类型金矿找矿模型研究、胶东金矿带盲矿预测的原生地球化学专家系统、包裹体气晕、离子晕及其叠加晕找金新方法、脉钨矿床的“三环一帽式”地球化学异常模式、应用卤素找盲矿和土壤热释卤素新方法、建立优质锰矿床的地球化学找矿模型、区带化探找贵金属及有色金属矿产。     

胶东西北部玲珑、郭家岭超单元花岗岩成因探讨

玲珑、郭家岭超单元花岗岩的源岩均为胶东岩群变质岩;玲珑超单元花岗岩表现出岩石的不均匀性,其成因为原地、半原地交代-重熔型花岗岩;郭家岭超单元花岗岩则属于有幔源物质参入的同熔型花岗岩.两个花岗岩均经历了多期构造-岩浆作用,最终形成于燕山期;郭家岭超单元最终形成晚于玲珑超单元花岗岩.     

DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

西安市大气能见度变化规律及与空气污染关系

利用1980—2005年西安市大气能见度资料对大气能见度变化规律统计分析,并利用2005年西安市逐日污染物质量浓度资料,分析与能见度的相关性,结果表明:大气能见度有较明显的年际变化、月季变化和日变化特征。年际变化总体呈增大趋势,20世纪90年代中期以来明显好于80年代到90年代前期;能见度与空气污染物质量浓度呈负相关,污染物质量浓度对能见度的影响冬季最明显,秋季次之,夏季最差。