Fluxes of inorganic carbon from two forested catchments in the Appalachian mountains

This study uses long‐term records of stream chemistry, discharge and air temperature from two neighbouring forested catchments in the southern Appalachians in order to calculate production of dissolved CO₂ and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). One of the pair of catchments was clear‐felled during the period of the study. The study shows that: (1) areal production rates of both dissolved CO₂ and DIC are similar between the two catchments even during and immediately after the period of clear‐felling; (2) flux of total inorganic carbon (dissolved CO₂+ DIC) rises dramatically in response to a catchment‐wide acidification event; (3) DIC and dissolved CO₂ are dominantly released on the old water portion of the discharge and concentrations peak in the early autumn when flows in the study catchments are at their lowest; (4) total fluvial carbon flux from the clear‐felled catchment is 11·6 t km⁻² year⁻¹ and for the control catchment is 11·4 t km⁻² year⁻¹. The total inorganic carbon flux represents 69% of the total fluvial carbon flux. The method presented in the study provides a useful way of estimating inorganic carbon flux from a catchment without detailed gas monitoring. The time series of dissolved CO₂ at emergence to the stream can also be a proxy for the soil flux of CO₂. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ACE‐2 multiple angle micro‐pulse lidar observations from Las Galletas, Tenerife, Canary Islands

Multiple‐angle micro‐pulse lidar (MPL) observations were made at Las Galletas on Tenerife, Canary Islands during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment‐2 (ACE‐2) conducted June–July, 1997. A principal objective of the MPL observations was to characterize the temporal/spatial distributions of aerosols in the region, particularly to identify and profile elevated Saharan dust layers which occur intermittently during the June–July time period. Vertical and slant angle measurements taken 16 and 17 July characterize such an occurrence, providing aerosol backscatter, extinction, and optical depth profiles of the dust layer between 1 and 5 km above mean sea level (MSL). Additionally, horizontal measurements taken in Las Galletas throughout the 6‐week period provide a time profile of the varying aerosol extinction at the surface. This profile exhibits the alternating periods of clean maritime air and pollution outbreaks that typified the region. Horizontal measurements also provide some evidence suggesting the possible influx of Saharan dust from the free troposphere to the surface. This paper presents estimates of aerosol optical properties retrieved from the multi‐angle MPL measurements in addition to an outline of the methodologies employed to obtain these results.     

Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO₂ concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions.     

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.     

Extrasolar Analogues to the Kuiper Belt

Debris disks are found around some 15% of main sequencestars and their dust is thought to be continuallyreplenished in collisions between planetesimals inextrasolar Kuiper belts.While they were discovered in 1984 by IRAS, it is onlywith more recent imaging that their true nature has beenrevealed. This paper discusses recent debris disk images andtheir impact on our understanding of extrasolar systems.Importantly these images confirm the extrasolar Kuiper belthypothesis for most (but not all) debris diskcandidates and show that the planetesimals within thesedisks must have grown to at least a few km.Asymmetries in imaged disk structures also provide informationabout the planetary systems orbiting inside these planetesimalbelts. The impact of debris disk studies on our understandingof the evolution of our own Kuiper belt, as well as theirpotential to solve puzzles such as the origin of the missingmass and the outer edge of the Kuiper belt, is alsodiscussed.