Is Prediction of Future Landslides Possible with a GIS?

This contribution explores a strategy for landslide hazard zonation inwhich layers of spatial data are used to represent typical settings inwhich given dynamic types of landslides are likely to occur. Theconcepts of assessment and prediction are defined to focus on therepresentation of future hazardous events and in particular on themyths that often provide obstacles in the application of quantitativemethods. The prediction rate curves for different applications describethe support provided by the different data layers in experiments inwhich the typical setting of hazardous events is approximated bystatistically integrating the spatial information.     

Development and application of a GIS-based tool for earthquake-induced hazard prediction

An integrated GIS-based tool (GTIS) was constructed to estimate site effects related to the earthquake hazards in the Gyeongju area of Korea. To build the GTIS for the study area, intensive site investigations and geotechnical data collections were performed and a walk-over site survey was additionally carried out to acquire surface geo-knowledge data in accordance with the procedure developed to build the GTIS. For practical applications of the GTIS used to estimate the site effects associated with the amplification of ground motion, seismic microzoning maps of the characteristic site period and the mean shear wave velocity to a depth of 30 m were created and presented as a regional synthetic strategy addressing earthquake-induced hazards. Additionally, based on one-dimensional site response analyses, various seismic microzoning maps for short- and mid-period amplification potentials were created for the study area. Case studies of seismic microzonations in the Gyeongju area verified the usefulness of the GTIS for predicting seismic hazards in the region.     

Chemical and textural equilibration of garnet during amphibolite facies metamorphism: The influence of coupled dissolution–reprecipitation

Metamorphic equilibration requires chemical communication between minerals and may be inhibited through sluggish volume diffusion and or slow rates of dissolution in a fluid phase. Relatively slow diffusion and the perceived robust nature of chemical growth zoning may preclude garnet porphyroblasts from readily participating in low‐temperature amphibolite facies metamorphic reactions. Garnet is widely assumed to be a reactant in staurolite‐isograd reactions, and the evidence for this has been assessed in the Late Proterozoic Dalradian pelitic schists of the Scottish Highlands. The 3D imaging of garnet porphyroblasts in staurolite‐bearing schists reveals a good crystal shape and little evidence of marginal dissolution; however, there is also lack of evidence for the involvement of either chlorite or chloritoid in the reaction. Staurolite forms directly adjacent to the garnet, and its nucleation is strongly associated with deformation of the muscovite‐rich fabrics around the porphyroblasts. “Cloudy” fluid inclusion‐rich garnet forms in both marginal and internal parts of the garnet porphyroblast and is linked both to the production of staurolite and to the introduction of abundant quartz inclusions within the garnet. Such cloudy garnet typically has a Mg‐rich, Mn‐poor composition and is interpreted to have formed during a coupled dissolution–reprecipitation process, triggered by a local influx of fluid. All garnet in the muscovite‐bearing schists present in this area is potentially reactive, irrespective of the garnet composition, but very few of the schists contain staurolite. The staurolite‐producing reaction appears to be substantially overstepped during the relatively high‐pressure Barrovian regional metamorphism reflecting the limited permeability of the schists in peak metamorphic conditions. Fluid influx and hence reaction progress appear to be strongly controlled by subtle differences in deformation history. The remaining garnet fails to achieve chemical equilibrium during the reaction creating distinctive patchy compositional zoning. Such zoning in metamorphic garnet created during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation reactions may be difficult to recognize in higher grade pelites due to subsequent diffusive re‐equilibration. Fundamental assumptions about metamorphic processes are questioned by the lack of chemical equilibrium during this reaction and the restricted permeability of the regional metamorphic pelitic schists. In addition, the partial loss of prograde chemical and textural information from the garnet porphyroblasts cautions against their routine use as a reliable monitor of metamorphic history. However, the partial re‐equilibration of the porphyroblasts during coupled dissolution–reprecipitation opens possibilities of mapping reaction progress in garnet as a means of assessing fluid access during peak metamorphic conditions.     

Constraint energy minimizing generalized multiscale finite element method in the mixed formulation

This paper presents a novel mass-conservative mixed multiscale method for solving flow equations in heterogeneous porous media. The media properties (the permeability) contain multiple scales and high contrast. The proposed method solves the flow equation in a mixed formulation on a coarse grid by constructing multiscale basis functions. The resulting velocity field is mass-conservative on the fine grid. Our main goal is to obtain first-order convergence in terms of the mesh size which is independent of local contrast. This is achieved, first, by constructing some auxiliary spaces, which contain global information that cannot be localized, in general. This is built on our previous work on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM). In the auxiliary space, multiscale basis functions corresponding to small (contrast-dependent) eigenvalues are selected. These basis functions represent the high-conductivity channels (which connect the boundaries of a coarse block). Next, we solve local problems to construct multiscale basis functions for the velocity field. These local problems are formulated in the oversampled domain, taking into account some constraints with respect to auxiliary spaces. The latter allows fast spatial decay of local solutions and, thus, allows taking smaller oversampled regions. The number of basis functions depends on small eigenvalues of the local spectral problems. Moreover, multiscale pressure basis functions are needed in constructing the velocity space. Our multiscale spaces have a minimal dimension, which is needed to avoid contrast dependence in the convergence. The method’s convergence requires an oversampling of several layers. We present an analysis of our approach. Our numerical results confirm that the convergence rate is first order with respect to the mesh size and independent of the contrast.     

Mid-Miocene (post 12 Ma) displacement along the central Karakoram fault zone in the Nubra Valley,Ladakh, India from spot LA-ICPMS U/Pb zircon ages of granites

The Karakoram fault zone is a prominent right lateral fault that connects the frontal thrust of the North Pamir with the Indus suture zone near Mount Kailas. Its nature and age of initiation is controversial. In the Nubra valley, Ladakh, India, a Karakoram range granite is thrust over Cretaceous magmatic arc rocks and this thrust is cut by a western strand of the Karakoram fault zone. Three different lithologies from this granite gave weighted mean zircon U/Pb ages of 12.92±0.77 Ma, 12.41±0.43 Ma, and 11.72±0.31 Ma. The ages indicate a relatively short intrusive history of about 1 Ma for the phases: the geochemistry is practically identical to the Pangong leucogranites in the same tectonic block. The Karakoram fault zone in this area is thus less than ~12 Ma old which supports a post middle Miocene (Serravallian) age of Karakoram fault initiation in this area.     

Estimating areal production of intertidal microphytobenthos based on spatio-temporal community dynamics and laboratory measurements

In situ Microphytobenthic community dynamics were combined with laboratory measurement of predominant species by fluorescence methods to estimate the areal primary production. Field investigation of community dynamics of microphytobenthos (MPB) was conducted from August 2006 to August 2007 in intertidal flats of the Nakdong River estuary, Korea. MPB Biomass varied between 0.47 and 16.58 μg cm^?3 in the surface 1 cm sediment, with two dominant diatom species, Amphora coffeaeformis and Navicula sp., occupying average 77.2 ± 14.9% of total number of MPB cells. The biomass was higher in the slightly muddy sand sites than that in the sand site, and showed different pattern of seasonal variation. The profile of vertical distribution of biomass was an exponential decrease trend with depth in sediments. The biomass proportions in the uppermost 3 mm were 57.6% and 37.8% with and without the presence of biofilm, respectively. The two dominant species were cultured in laboratory, and their photosynthetic parameters, rETR_max (relative maximum electron transport rate), α (light utilization coefficient) and E _k (light saturation parameter) were derived from rETR (relative ETR)-irradiance curves by Imaging- PAM (pulse amplitude modulated) fluorometry. The rETR-irradiance curves showed no significant difference of photosynthetic activities between the two species. The areal potential production ranged from 0.74 to 2.22 g C m^?2 d^?1.     

Application of a multi‐temporal,LiDAR‐derived,digital terrain model in a landslide‐volume estimation

Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km² study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (V_L = 0.452A_L^1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (V_L = 2.510A_L^1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >10⁵ m² is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling combined open channel flow by artificial neural networks

Combined open channel flow is encountered in many hydraulic engineering structures and processes, such as irrigation ditches and wastewater treatment facilities. Extensive experimental studies have conducted to investigate combined flow characteristics. Nevertheless, there is no simple relationship that can fully describe the velocity profiles in a turbulent flow. The artificial neural network (ANN) has great computational capability for solving various complex problems, such as function approximation. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the ANN for simulating velocity profiles, velocity contours and estimating the discharges accordingly. The velocity profiles measured by an acoustic doppler velocimeter in the open channel of the Chihtan purification plant, Taipei, with different discharges at fixed measuring section and different depths are presented. The total number of data sets is 640 and the data sets are split into two subsets, i.e. training and validation sets. The backpropagation algorithm is used to construct the neural network. The results demonstrate that the velocity profiles can be modelled by the ANN, and the ANN constructed can nicely fit the velocity profiles and can precisely predict the discharges for the conditions investigated. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The economics of the marine sector: general equilibrium and ecological analysis

Recent transfers of potential marine wealth to coastal states, resulting from the Third United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, have enhanced our awareness that the marine sector might ultimately prove to be a new frontier. The objective of this paper is to initiate work toward the development of a systematic appraoch to the economics of this sector. To this end, the marine sector is assumed to be the fourth factor of production, taking its place with the traditional trio of land, capital and labor. The productivity of this sector is described and analyzed with the aid of a simple general equilibrium model.