Variation and uncertainty in the predicted flowering dates of cherry blossoms using the CMIP5 climate change scenario

In this study, we analyzed changes in the predicted flowering date (PFD) for cherry blossom trees under changing climate conditions by simulating the PFDs for six sites on the Korean Peninsula between 1981 and 2010. The spatial downscaled climate data from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenarios of 30 global climate models (GCMs) were used in the analysis. Here, we present the range of uncertainty in the PFDs, which were calculated by comparing the simulated PFDs to the observed flowering dates. We determined that the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of PFDs from individual GCMs, at 7-15 days, were greater in range than those of the mean PFDs from multiple GCMs, at 7-8 days. During three future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, the standard deviations (SD), the interquartile ranges (IQRs), and the relative changes in the mean predicted flowering dates (MPFDs) were calculated to quantify the uncertainty levels inherent from the climate scenarios of multiple GCMs. Distinctive changes in the SDs and IQRs of MPFD were found among the analyzed sites. The SDs increased with time between each future period in Seoul, Incheon, and Jeonju, whereas those in Daegu, Busan, and Mokpo decreased with time. In addition, the IQRs increased with time at Seoul, Incheon, Jeonju, and Daegu but not at Busan and Mokpo. The relative changes in the MPFDs at all six sites became greater with time toward the year 2100. Therefore, combining multiple GCM scenarios may not contribute largely to reduce the uncertainty in the PFDs under changing climate conditions, although it may be useful in quantifying the uncertainty in order to make better decisions based on more accurate information.     

Ecotoxicological evaluation of sewage sludge using bioluminescent marine bacteria and rotifer

Bioassay using the marine bacteria,Vibrio fischeri and rotifer,Brachionus plicatilis, and chemical analyses were conducted to assess the toxicity of the various sewage sludges, one of the major ocean dumped materials in the Yellow Sea of Korea. Sludge elutriates extracted by filtered seawater were used to estimate the ecotoxicity of the sludge. Chemical characterization included the analyses of organic contents, heavy metals, and persistent organic pollutants in sludge. Bacterial bioluminescent inhibition (15 min), rotifer mortality (24 hr) and rotifer population growth inhibition (48 hr) assay were conducted to estimate the sludge toxicity. EC50 15 min (inhibition concentration of bioluminescence after 15 minutes exposed) values by Microtox® bioassay clearly revealed different toxicity levels depending on the sludge sources. Highest toxicity for the bacteria was found with the sludge extract from dyeing waste and followed by industrial waste, livestock waste, and leather processing waste. Clear toxic effects on the bacteria were not found in the sludge extract from filtration bed sludge and rural sewage sludge. Consistent with Microtox® results, rotifer neonate mortality and population growth inhibition test also showed highest toxicity in dyeing waste and low in filtration bed and rural sewage sludge. High concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals were measured in the samples from the industrial wastes, leather processing plant waste sludge, and urban sewage sludge. However, there was no significant correlation between pollutant concentration levels and the toxicity values of the sludge. This suggests that the ecotoxicity in addition to the chemical analyses of various sludge samples must be estimated before release of potential harmful waste in the natural environment as part of an ecological risk assessment.     

Linking a prolonged Neo‐Tethyan magmatic arc in South Asia: Zircon U‐Pb and Hf isotopic constraints from the Lohit Batholith,NE India

The Neo‐Tethyan subduction that operated before the India‐Asia collision resulted in an Andean‐type convergent margin in South Asia and was associated with extensive arc magmatism that formed the Transhimalayan batholiths. Magmatism in the Gangdese Batholith, the largest batholith exposed in the Lhasa terrane of southern Tibet, is considered to have lasted from the early Jurassic to Eocene. However, eastward correlation of the Gangdese Batholith is uncertain because it is truncated by the eastern Himalayan syntaxis. Here, we report new data from the Lohit Batholith, NE India, including: (i) zircon U‐Pb ages of five granitoids from ca. 148 to 96 Ma; and (ii) zircon Hf isotopes of these rocks that yield high and positive ε_Hf(T) values. We argue that the Lohit Batholith is the eastward extension of the Gangdese Batholith, and can be correlated southward to the Wuntho‐Popa arc in West Burma, thus linking a prolonged Neo‐Tethyan magmatic arc system from southern Tibet to Southeast Asia.     

Quantifying the P–T–t conditions of north–south Lhasa terrane accretion: new insight into the pre‐Himalayan architecture of the Tibetan plateau

An integrated field, petrological and geochronological study of the Basong Tso region of south‐eastern Tibet has constrained the timing and P–T conditions of north–south Lhasa terrane accretion and provides new insight into the tectonothermal evolution of the Tibetan plateau. Two distinct high‐grade metamorphic belts are recognized in the region: a southern belt (the Basong Tso complex) that consists of sheared schist and orthogneiss; and a northern belt (the Zhala complex) that comprises paragneiss and granite. Combined pseudosection modelling and U–Pb geochronology of monazite and zircon indicates that the Basong Tso complex records peak metamorphic conditions of 9 ± 0.5 kbar and 690 ± 25 °C at c. 204–201 Ma, whereas the Zhala complex experienced peak metamorphic conditions of 5.0 ± 1.0 kbar and 740 ± 40 °C at c. 198–192 Ma. Microstructural analysis suggests that the two belts share a common early prograde history, after which the Basong Tso complex attained peak conditions following rapid burial, and the Zhala complex approached peak conditions along an isobaric path. Overall it is inferred that the Basong Tso and Zhala complexes represent the lower and upper structural levels of an evolving orogen that underwent Barrovian‐type metamorphism following collision (M1), followed by Buchan‐style overprinting at higher structural levels due to heat advection by syn‐tectonic granites (M2). Mylonitization (sensu lato) of the Basong Tso complex and juxtaposition of the two units occurred after attainment of peak conditions. The dominance of Mesozoic regional metamorphism across most of the Tibetan plateau indicates that Cenozoic crustal thickening processes, where present, are only manifested at depth.     

Hydrological effects of climate change,groundwater withdrawal,and land use in a small Korean watershed

The effects of variability in climate and watershed (groundwater withdrawal and land use) on dry‐weather streamflows were investigated using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The equation to predict the total runoff (TR) using climate data was derived from simulation results for 30 years by multiple regression analysis. These may be used to estimate effects of various climate variations (precipitation during the dry period, precipitation during the previous wet period, solar radiation, and maximum temperature). For example, if daily average maximum temperature increases by 3 °C, TR during the dry period will decrease by 27·9%. Similarly, groundwater withdrawals strongly affect streamflow during the dry period. However, land use changes (increasing urbanization) within the forested watershed do not appear to significantly affect TR during the dry period. Finally, a combined equation was derived that describes the relationships between the TR during the dry period and the climate, groundwater withdrawal and urban area proportion in a small monsoon watershed. This equation will be effective to predict the water availability during the dry periods in the future since it is closely related to changes of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, urban area ratio, and groundwater withdrawal quantity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of stable water isotopes to assess sources and influences of slope groundwater on slope failure

This study employs stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopes as natural tracers to assess the headwater of a landslide next to a drainage divide and the importance of the slope's headwater in the study area. The study is undertaken near Wu‐She Township in the mountains of central Taiwan. Because a reservoir is located on the other side of the divide, this study evaluates the relationship between the reservoir water and headwater of the landslide as well. Over a 1‐year period, water samples from September 2008 to September 2009, including local precipitation (LP), Wu‐She Reservoir's water (WSRW), slope groundwater (SGW), upper‐reach stream water (USTW), and down‐reach stream water (DSTW), were analysed for deuterium (δD) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) stable isotopes. Results indicate that WSRW is the predominant component in SGW: approximately 70% of SGW originates from WSRW and 30% from LP based on a two end‐member mass‐balance mixing model for δ¹⁸O. The similar two end‐member mixing model is also employed to assess the contributions of USTW and SGW to DSTW. Model results indicate that SGW is the major source of DSTW with a contribution of about 67%. Accordingly, about 47% of DSTW sources from the WSRW. In short, owing to reservoir leakage, WSRW contributes the greater part of both SGW and DSTW. Plentiful WSRW in SGW threatens the stability of the slope in the divide area. To avoid subsequent continuous slope failure, necessary mitigation steps are required. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diurnal variation of outgoing longwave radiation associated with high cloud and UTH changes from Meteosat-5 measurements

Diurnal variations of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) are examined in conjunction with diurnal variations of high cloud and upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) over the Indian Ocean and surrounding land areas using Meteosat-5 measurements. Most land areas exhibit a significant diurnal variation of OLR with the largest amplitude over the Arabian Peninsula, whereas the diurnal variation of OLR is much weaker over the Indian Ocean. While diurnal maxima of OLR are found in the early afternoon over many regions of the analysis domain following the diurnal cycle of solar heating, convectively active regions of both land and ocean where high cloud and UTH exhibit distinct diurnal variations show OLR maxima before local noon. These results indicate that high cloud development in the afternoon induces a shift in local time of OLR maxima over convective regions. In agreement with earlier studies it is shown that UTH diurnal variations are less important in regard to their impact on the OLR variations.     

二次离子质谱第四纪锆石年代学:台湾金瓜石英安岩定年

高精度第四纪年代学是第四纪研究的基础,对了解地球演化和发展非常关键。大型二次离子质谱(SIMS)锆石U-Th-Pb定年方法,集高空间分辨率、高精度、高效率和近无损分析等优势于一体,可以提取矿物微区中记录的丰富地质信息,在第四纪年代学研究中具有很大的应用潜力。文中对SIMS第四纪锆石原位微区年龄测定的基本原理、分析校正方法进行介绍,并报道我们测定台湾第四纪金瓜石英安岩锆石U-Pb年龄的结果((1.166±0.020)Ma)。