<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina alterniflora</Emphasis> Biomass Allocation and Temperature: Implications for Salt Marsh Persistence with Sea-Level Rise

To predict the impacts of climate change, a better understanding is needed of the foundation species that build and maintain biogenic ecosystems. Spartina alterniflora Loisel (smooth cordgrass) is the dominant salt marsh-building plant along the US Atlantic coast. It maintains salt marsh elevation relative to sea level by the accumulation of aboveground biomass, which promotes sediment deposition and belowground biomass, which accretes as peat. Peat accumulation is particularly important in elevation maintenance at high latitudes where sediment supply tends to be limited. Latitudinal variation in S. alterniflora growth was quantified in eight salt marshes from Massachusetts to South Carolina. The hypothesis that allocation to aboveground and belowground biomass is phenotypically plastic was tested with transplant experiments among a subset of salt marshes along this gradient. Reciprocal transplants revealed that northern S. alterniflora decreased allocation to belowground biomass when grown in the south. Some northern plants also died when moved south, suggesting that northern S. alterniflora may be stressed by future warming. Southern plants that were moved north showed phenotypic plasticity in biomass allocation, but no mortality. Belowground biomass also decomposed more quickly in southern marshes. Our results suggest that warming will lead northern S. alterniflora to decrease belowground allocation and that belowground biomass will decompose more quickly, thus decreasing peat accumulation. Gradual temperature increases may allow for adaptation and acclimation, but our results suggest that warming will lower the ability of salt marshes to withstand sea-level rise.     

Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies

The constant threat from landslides in the northeastern part of Istria, Croatia, calls for the need to apply accurate and reliable methods in landslide hazard assessment in order to prevent landslide damage and to set an early warning system if necessary. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment enable optimal area management and regional urban planning. The study area is in the northeastern and central part of the Istrian Peninsula, well known as an area of frequent, small and shallow slope instability phenomena. Landslide susceptibility assessment in the area around the city of Buzet was performed using a deterministic landslide susceptibility model in the LS-RAPID software. LS-RAPID was developed to analyze stability at one single location, but the performed analysis has shown that LS-RAPID can be used as a powerful tool in landslide susceptibility and hazard assessment on regional scale. The objective of this paper is to establish the influence of the runout potential on the enlargement of the landslide-susceptible zones, due to expansion of the failure area around the initial failure zone. Performed analysis of rainfall return periods shows the frequency of landslide occurrence and provides the possible correlation with the time component of landslide hazard in the area.     

Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Reduction of future disaster damages by learning from disaster experiences

This paper examines the effect of a country’s own past disaster experiences and nearby countries’ past experiences on subsequent disaster damage. We use global disaster data from 1990 to 2010, which include disaster-related death tolls for both natural and technological disasters that are further divided into sub-categories. Overall, we find evidence of a reduction effect of past disaster damage on future disaster damage. More detailed analyses show that an adaptation effect seems to be present for certain combinations of disaster types and levels of economic development. The results show that a country’s own experiences reduce future damage for natural disasters but that the marginal effect is larger for lower-income countries. On the other hand, for technological disasters, a robust impact of experiences was found only in higher-income countries. In terms of the disaster experiences of nearby countries, the adaptation effect was found only for natural disasters, and the marginal impact was relatively higher for higher-income countries.     

The smoke is rising but where is the fire? Exploring effective online map design for wildfire warnings

The current study sought to offer guidance for developing effective web-based mapping tools for wildfire warnings by identifying (1) the important content for facilitating individuals’ decision-making, and (2) the optimal interface design for ensuring usability and ease of information access. A map-based warning tool was prototyped in the Australian context, followed by a usability and effectiveness evaluation through individual interviews and verbal protocol analysis to assess participants’ interaction with the mapping interface and information in response to the simulated warning scenario. The results demonstrated variations in participants’ approaches to wildfire warning response, revealing varied information needs. Specifically, most participants relied on their own assessment of the prospective threat, requiring specific wildfire-related information before eliciting a response. In contrast, the decision of a minority of the participants was motivated by response guidance from agencies, and accurate wildfire information was less important for their response. Imperative information for both types of residents therefore needs to be highlighted in a map-based warning tool to cater to a wide audience. Furthermore, a number of heuristics were identified for designing effective interactive functions to facilitate the control of, and access to, the various maps and textual information presented on the map-based warning interface.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

A low-dimensional subsurface model for saturated and unsaturated flow processes: ability to address heterogeneity

A low-dimensional model that describes both saturated and unsaturated flow processes in a single equation is presented. Subsurface flow processes in the groundwater, the vadose zone, and the capillary fringe are accounted for through the computation of aggregated hydrodynamic parameters that result from the integration of the governing flow equations from the bedrock to the land surface. The three-dimensional subsurface flow dynamics are thus described by a two-dimensional equation, allowing for a drastic reduction of model unknowns and simplification of the model parameterizations. This approach is compared with a full resolution of the Richards equation in different synthetic test cases. Because the model reduction stems from the vertical integration of the flow equations, the test cases all use different configurations of heterogeneity for vertical cross-sections of a soil-aquifer system. The low-dimensional flow model shows strong consistency with results from a complete resolution of the Richards equation for both the water table and fluxes. The proposed approach is therefore well suited to the accurate reproduction of complex subsurface flow processes.     

Dewatering Behaviour of a Uranium Ore Slurry Containing Clays

The main objective of this paper was to investigate the dewatering behaviour of a clayey uranium ore slurry. The slurry (containing 28% clay size) exhibited moderate water adsorption (w _l  = 83% and w _p  = 30%). Primarily composed of muscovite (46%) and quartz (30%), the clay minerals included illite (8%), chlorite (5%) and kaolinite (2%) alongside a CEC of 41 (cmol(+)/kg) with Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ as the dominant cations. Likewise, the high EC (17,600 μS/cm) and ionic strength (1.15 mol/L) indicated a flocculated microstructure due to the presence of SO₄ ^2? (22,600 mg/L) and Mg²⁺ (1340 mg/L) in the slurry water. Settling included sedimentation and consolidation at low initial solids condition (25–35%) whereas only consolidation was observed at high initial solids contents (40–50%). The average k reduced from 1.2 × 10^?6 m/s (initial s = 25%) to 5.3 × 10^?8 m/s (initial s = 50%) along with a void ratio reduction from 7.4 to 2.6. Due to thixotropic strength, volume compressibility during consolidation showed apparent pre-consolidation at low effective stress (0.3–2 kPa) with a reduction in void ratio from 2.6 to 2.5. The e _s was found to be 2.46 at σ′ = 2 kPa and was followed by a steeper slope with the void ratio reducing to 2.1 at σ′ = 31 kPa. Likewise, the hydraulic conductivity during consolidation decreased from 2.6 × 10^?9 m/s (at e = 2.6) to 2.0 × 10^?10 m/s (at e = 2.1).     

Investigation of Various Parameters Effect on Cerchar Abrasivity Index with PFC3D Modeling

The Cerchar test is one of the appropriate and routine tests for determining the rock abrasion; but as for the costs and pin wear measurement errors in laboratory procedures and lack of access to laboratory equipment, using of numerical modeling can lead to use of greater number of samples required during the course of mechanized excavation and reduce the costs and errors in the laboratory test. In this study, the Cerchar abrasivity test was modeled using PFC3D (Particle Flow Code in 3 Dimensions) software. In order to verify the simulation results, Cerchar laboratory test results obtained by Rostami (Rock Mech Rock Eng 47(5):1905–1919, 2014) were compared with the numerical modeling results. In modeling studies, the effects of some parameters such as apply load, test speed, pin hardness and scratching distance on pin wear were investigated. As a conclusion of the study, good agreement between modeling and experimental results was obtained for a given condition. As in the experiment with various loads in both laboratory tests and modeling, with increasing applied load the Cerchar abrasivity index also increased in the experiment with Rockwell hardness HRC (An abbreviation for Rockwell Hardness measured on the C scale. The Rockwell test determines the hardness by measuring the depth of penetration of an indenter under a large load compared to the penetration made by a preload, that on the C scale use from a indenter with 120° cone and 150 kgf load) 42.     

Seasonal residence and counterurbanization: the role of second homes in population redistribution in Finland

Since the late twentieth century, many developed countries have experienced population deconcentration, labelled as counterurbanization. There has been an academic discussion on the meaning, validity and universality of this concept, drivers of counterurbanization and its impacts on rural areas. To date, research on counterurbanization mostly apply static and discrete definitions of residence, migration and population, which is an increasingly simplistic view in the contemporary reality of a growing multitude of forms of mobility, often related to dual residence. Particularly large-scale quantitative studies on counterurbanization are confined by existing statistical practices. This paper attempts to overcome this obstacle and describe the transformation of the settlement system in Finland acknowledging the role of second home mobility. To achieve this goal, it introduces two alternative measures of population, seasonal and average population, and analyses their spatial dynamics between the years 1990 and 2010 based on georeferenced grid statistical data. The study finds that although registered population has been concentrating during the period in analysis, seasonal population has been increasingly dispersed due to the growing number of second homes. It shows that the counterurbanization process, though not noticed by conventional statistics, does occur in Finland, manifested by seasonal rather than permanent moves. The article concludes that various forms of mobility should be taken into account when analysing the urban–rural population dynamics and transformations of settlement systems as well as in rural development planning.