Application and discussion of statistical seismology in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies

Earthquakes are one of the natural disasters that pose a major threat to human lives and property. Earthquake prediction propels the construction and development of modern seismology;however, current deterministic earthquake prediction is limited by numerous difficulties. Identifying the temporal and spatial statistical characteristics of earthquake occurrences and constructing earthquake risk statistical prediction models have become significant;particularly for evaluating earthquake risks and addressing seismic planning requirements such as the design of cities and lifeline projects based on the obtained insight. Since the 21 st century, the occurrence of a series of strong earthquakes represented by the Wenchuan M8 earthquake in 2008 in certain low-risk prediction areas has caused seismologists to reflect on traditional seismic hazard assessment globally. This article briefly reviews the development of statistical seismology, emphatically analyzes the research results and existing problems of statistical seismology in seismic hazard assessment, and discusses the direction of its development. The analysis shows that the seismic hazard assessment based on modern earthquake catalogues in most regions should be effective. Particularly, the application of seismic hazard assessment based on ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence)should be the easiest and most effective method for the compilation of seismic hazard maps in large urban agglomeration areas and low seismic hazard areas with thick sedimentary zones.     

陆地热泉钙华：重建古气候历史信息重要载体

【研究目的】陆地热泉钙华作为火山、地热区常见的陆相碳酸盐岩沉积物/岩被广泛用于恢复古环境,但其中可反映古气候信息的代用指标多受复杂外界条件变化控制,因此利用热泉钙华进行古气候信息提取有待深入研究。【研究方法】本文对当前热泉钙华在重建古气候信息方面的成功案例进行了总结,并梳理了与热泉钙华沉积相关的各类气候、非气候影响因素。【研究结果】研究认为针对热泉钙华进行古气候恢复代用指标的选取,目前较为可行的有C-O同位素、主微量元素,孢粉学数据由于孢粉保存的局限性,可作为佐证信息,配合其他气候代用指标来检验古气候意义的正确与否,同时需将热泉钙华中各项气候代用指标与生物地层学、冰芯、石笋等相对成熟的古气候研究手段进行对比,使各类古气候替代指标相互验证,从而更好的解读热泉钙华中古气候信息。【结论】利用热泉钙华中的各项气候代用指标进行可靠的古气候信息提取与恢复具有可行性。创新点：本文梳理了国内外热泉钙华恢复古气候的成功案例,并探讨了针对热泉钙华进行古气候恢复研究存在的问题。     

内蒙古新巴尔虎右旗土壤重金属生态风险与来源分析

【研究目的】新巴尔虎右旗地处呼伦贝尔草原深处,矿业活动频繁。了解该地区土壤中重金属来源以及生态风险是评估区域环境影响前提。【研究方法】本文系统采集了矿石、基岩及土壤样品共221件,测试并分析了Cd、Cr、As、Hg、Ni、Pb、Zn等7种重金属元素的含量。利用地积累指数法和潜在生态风险指数法评价了重金属的污染程度和生态风险,并综合运用相关分析、主成分分析法判断了土壤重金属的来源。【研究结果】研究表明,新巴尔虎右旗土壤重金属污染以轻度为主,Cd、Ni、As、Cr、Pb元素均存在一定程度的污染,污染区域集中于甲查矿区、准乌兰诺尔、呼伦湖西北岸以及克鲁伦河中游。Cr、Ni、Hg主要受人类活动影响;Cd、Zn、Pb受到自然因素与人类活动共同影响,As主要受自然因素影响。【结论】总体来看,本区生态风险整体较低,以Cd对生态风险的贡献最为突出,在本区土壤质量监测中应受到重视。     

Raman Micro-Spectroscopic Study of Sulfate Ion in the System Na2SO4 – H2O

This work aims to quantify sulfate ion concentrations in the system Na₂SO₄-H₂O using Raman micro-spectroscopy.Raman spectra of sodium sulfate solutions with known concentrations were collected at ambient temperature（293 K） and in the 500 cm^₁-4000 cm^-1 spectral region.The results indicate that the intensity of the SO₄^2- band increases with increasing concentrations of sulfate ion.A linear correlation was found between the concentration of SO₄^2-（c） and parameter I₁,which represents the ratio of the area of the SO₄^2- band to that of the O-H stretching band of water（A_s/A_w）:I₁=-0.00102+0.01538 c.Furthermore,we deconvoluted the O-H stretching band of water(2800 cm^-1-3800 cm^-1) at 3232 and 3430 cm^-1 into two sub-Gaussian bands,and then defined Raman intensity of the two sub-bands as A_Bi(3232 cm^-1) and A_B2(3430 cm^-1),defined the full width of half maximum（FWHM） of the two sub-bands as W_B1(3232 cm^-1) and W_B2(3430 cm^-1).A linear correlation between the concentration of SO₄^2-（c） and parameter I₂,which represents the ratio of Raman intensity of SO₄^2-（A_s）(in 981 cm^-1) to(A_B1+A_B2),was also established:I₂=-0.0111+0.3653 c.However,no correlations were found between concentration of SO₄^2-（c） and FWHM ratios,which includes the ratio of FWHM of SO₄^2-（W_s） to W_B1 W_B2 and W_B1+B2(the sum of W_B1 and W_B2),suggesting that FWHM is not suitable for quantitative studies of sulfate solutions with Raman spectroscopy.A comparison of Raman spectroscopic studies of mixed Na₂SO₄ and NaCI solutions with a constant SO₄^2- concentration and variable CI^- concentrations suggest that the I\ parameter is affected by CI^-,whereas the I₂ parameter was not.Therefore,even if the solution is not purely Na₂SO₄-H₂O,SO₄^2- concentrations can still be calculated from the Raman spectra if the H₂O band is deconvoluted into two sub-bands,making this method potentially applicable to analysis of natural fluid inclusions.     

Buxus Leaves from the Oligocene of Guangxi, China and Their Biogeographical Signi?cance

The present paper reports two new species of Buxus from the Oligocene Ningming Formation of Guangxi, South China, on the basis of several compressed fossil leaves. Buxus ningmingensis sp. nov. is characterized by an elliptic to ovate shape; pinnate venation with marginal secondary, long hairs on the adaxial side of the midvein base; and amphistomatic, anomocytic stomata with a prominent outer ring. All of these characteristics suggest a closest af?nity to the living Buxus microphylla subsp. sinica. Another new species identi?ed as Buxus preaustro-yunnanensis sp. nov. is characterized by the diagnostic formation of its admedially branched tertiaries, the trunks of which are often strongly thickened by sclereides. This species is most similar to the extant Buxus austro-yunnanensis. The co-occurrence of Buxus ningmingensis sp. nov. and Buxus preaustro-yunnanensis sp. nov. suggests that these two Buxus lived during the Oligocene under a warm, tropical to subtropical climate, similar to the current climate of Ningming. Our ?ndings provide the earliest fossil evidence of Buxus leaves with detailed illustrations of leaf architectural and cuticular features. The occurrence of these two species indicates that Buxus began to diversify in Guangxi no later than the Oligocene.     

An Review of International Climate Change Conference and Analysis on Recent Hot Issues

The international climate change negotiation has been carried out over 20 years. The issue of climate change has shifted from a scientific question into a complex political matter which is related to the sustainable development of mankind. Based on the overview of major processes and stages of international climate conferences, this paper analyzed the key measures that major countries have taken to address climate change, as well as the primary tasks of Paris climate conference and recent international actions. The recent international climate policy issues were also analyzed in order to provide suggestions for China’s activel participation in the development of a new round of international climate change system.     

南北构造带北部石炭纪东西沉积边界分合演变及其地质意义

南北构造带是中国大陆地质构造及深部过程和地表系统的重要分界线,也是地震活动的多发地带,对其在前中生代是否存在、不同时期各区带的构造属性和联系研究薄弱。文中以南北构造带北部为研究对象,重点讨论其中南段,探讨研究区石炭纪地质构造特征及其与具分区意义的南北构造带形成演化的联系。研究表明,在石炭纪,今南北构造带北部所在地区处于伸展裂陷环境,断裂活动强烈,总体控制着河西走廊—北祁连沉积域的东界和隆拗格局及沉积厚度等变化。南北构造带北部及其西沉积区的断裂活动和沉积演化,经历了前黑山期初始裂陷、臭牛沟期进一步(向北)扩张、土坡期沉积-沉降鼎盛及太原期衰减4个阶段。其中于晚石炭世土坡晚期(本溪期)和太原期,东(华北)、西沉积域的沉积范围均向南北构造带北部扩展,先后经历了北部连通到全部相通的演变过程。石炭纪各期诸断裂与中、新生代断裂在位置和方向上具有明显的相关性,反映二者成生和演化联系密切。南北构造带北部及邻区,在石炭纪主要时期分隔华北和河西走廊—北祁连两大沉积域,东、西沉积域的沉积边界在该区带的分合演变和建造特征及断裂的主控因素,显示该区带在石炭纪已属具明显分区作用的重要地质构造单元,为此后南北构造带北部的进一步发展演化和重要的构造地位奠定了基础。     

点云滤除临时动地物构建表面模型方法探讨

针对获取高精度数字表面模型(DSM)效率不高的现状,文章研究了基于机载激光雷达点云滤除临时动地物的方法:通过对TIN迭代滤波与聚类进行改进,提出了两种滤除临时动地物构建DSM的方法,第一种是基于数据流TIN迭代与临时动地物的特征,直接滤除临时动地物构建DSM;第二种是基于数字高程模型(DEM),逆向添加滤除临时动地物点的非地面点构建DSM。最后通过实验证明这两种方法均可较好地滤除临时动地物构建DSM。     

“天地图·榆林”市级节点电子地图建设研究

结合"天地图·榆林"市级节点项目中的电子地图建设,探讨天地图市级节点18级至20级矢量电子地图和影像电子地图、专题电子地图的数据选取、数据处理和电子地图制作等内容,对市级电子地图建设有一定的参考。     

基于ROACH的微波全息法相关机设计

基于ROACH开发平台设计了一套适用于微波全息法测量的高性能实时数字相关机,采用了带通采样技术,无需在相关机之前进行基带转换,使全息测量硬件系统更加简洁;采样速率为10 Mbps~1 000 Mbps可调,采用数字混频、数字滤波,信号带宽和频率分辨率都易于调整,具有很大的灵活性和可扩展性。测试结果表明该相关机测量精度高、稳定性好、准确可靠。