Prediction of pile settlement using artificial neural networks based on standard penetration test data

In recent years artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been applied to many geotechnical engineering problems with some degree of success. With respect to the design of pile foundations, accurate prediction of pile settlement is necessary to ensure appropriate structural and serviceability performance. In this paper, an ANN model is developed for predicting pile settlement based on standard penetration test (SPT) data. Approximately 1000 data sets, obtained from the published literature, are used to develop the ANN model. In addition, the paper discusses the choice of input and internal network parameters which were examined to obtain the optimum model. Finally, the paper compares the predictions obtained by the ANN with those given by a number of traditional methods. It is demonstrated that the ANN model outperforms the traditional methods and provides accurate pile settlement predictions.     

Continental shelf nurseries and recruitment variability in American plaice and yellowtail flounder on the Grand Bank: insights into stock resiliency

In 1994, a directed fishing moratorium was declared for Grand Bank American plaice (Hippoglossoides platessoides) and yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) stocks because both stocks showed severe declines in abundance from heavy exploitation during the mid 1980s and early 1990s. Four years later, the fishery for yellowtail re-opened while the plaice stock has shown little recovery and the moratorium is still in effect. To assess the possible causes of the differences in recovery between species, we examined the spatial structure and environmental characteristics of the continental shelf nursery habitats of plaice and yellowtail, and their relationship to recruitment variability and overall population size. Depth plays a major influential role determining the spatial pattern and the abundance of juveniles of both species and in the case of plaice the spatial structure of the adult population also determines the amount of nursery area utilised by juveniles. Recruitment variability was higher in plaice than in yellowtail. We found year class synchrony in both species indicating that common environmental conditions and/or biological processes are affecting recruitment in a similar manner. Density-dependent regulation appears to be more severe in yellowtail and this should contribute to a more stable population when compared to plaice. These results are discussed in terms of resiliency of both stocks to over-exploitation.     

Relating millimeter-scale turbulence to meter-scale subtidal erosion and accretion across the fringe of a coastal mangrove forest

Within a wave-exposed mangrove forest, novel field observations are presented, comparing millimeter-scale turbulent water velocity fluctuations with contemporaneous subtidal bed elevation changes. High-resolution velocity and bed level measurements were collected from the unvegetated mudflat, at the mangrove forest fringe, and within the forest interior over multiple tidal cycles (flood–ebb) during a 2-week period. Measurements demonstrated that the spatial variability in vegetation density is a control on sediment transport at sub-meter scales. Scour around single and dense clusters of pneumatophores was predicted by a standard hydraulic engineering equation for wave-induced scour around regular cylinders, when the cylinder diameter in the equations was replaced with the representative diameter of the dense pneumatophore clusters. Waves were dissipated as they propagated into the forest, but dissipation at infragravity periods (> 30 s) was observed to be less than dissipation at shorter periods (< 30 s), consistent with the predictions of a simple model. Cross-wavelet analysis revealed that infragravity-frequency fluctuations in the bed level were occasionally coherent with velocity, possibly indicating scour upstream of dense pneumatophore patches when infragravity waves reinforced tidal currents. Consequently, infragravity waves were a likely driver of sediment transport within the mangrove forest. Near-bed turbulent kinetic energy, estimated from the turbulent dissipation rate, was also correlated with bed level changes. Specifically, within the mangrove forest and over the unvegetated mudflat, high-energy events were associated with erosion or near-zero bed level change, whereas low-energy events were associated with accretion. In contrast, no single relationship between bed level changes and mean current velocity was applicable across both vegetated and unvegetated regions. These observations support the theory that sediment mobilization scales with turbulent energy, rather than mean velocity, a distinction that becomes important when vegetation controls the development of turbulence.     

The influence of subsurface moisture on rill system evolution

Rill development studies have focused almost exclusively on surface erosion processes and critical threshold hydraulic conditions. Characteristic rill features, such as arcuate headcuts and knickpoints, are morphologically similar to the ‘theatre-headed’ valleys which have been associated with ‘sapping’ processes at various scales. This paper reports on laboratory experiments designed to identify linkages between surface flow hydraulics, subsurface moisture conditions and rill development. Experiments were carried out in a 16·57 m² flume under simulated rainfall with soil samples up to 0·15 m depth in which moisture conditions were monitored by miniature time-domain reflectometer probes. Tests showed complex responses in which some rill incision reflected surface flow conditions, but major rill system development with markedly enhanced sediment yield was closely associated with high soil moisture contents. It was not possible to measure seepage forces directly, but calculation and observation indicate that these were less important than reduction in soil strength with saturation, which resulted in increased effective runoff erosivity. This caused concentrated undercutting along the water table at rill walls, while slightly stronger surface layers above the water table formed microscarps. These retreated along the water table into interrill surfaces, producing residual pediment transport slopes. The microscarps eventually disappeared when the water table reached the surface, eliminating differential soil strength. The experiments showed complex relationships between surface and subsurface erosional processes in evolving rill systems, strongly influenced by soil moisture dynamics. The very small topographic and hydraulic head amplitudes indicate that seepage forces and ‘sapping’ were minimal. The dominant effect of soil moisture was reduction of soil strength with saturation, and increased runoff entrainment. Experimental conditions were not unusual, either for agricultural fields or natural hillslopes, and the intricate interrelationship of surface and subsurface erosion processes observed is probably not uncommon. Attempts to link specific morphologic features at rill scale to dominance of surface or subsurface processes alone are therefore unlikely to be successful or reliable. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rapid shoreline flooding enhances water turbidity by sediment resuspension: An example in a large Tibetan lake

Rapid water level rise due to climate change has the potential to remobilize loose sediments along shorelines and increase the turbidity of nearshore waters, thereby impacting water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. Siling Lake is one of the largest and most rapidly expanding lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. Between 2000 and 2017, this lake experienced an increase in water level of about 8 m and a doubling in water turbidity. Here, using this lake as a study site, we used a wave model and high-resolution remote sensing of turbidity (Landsat-8) to assess the potential connection between water-level rise, enhanced wind-driven sediment resuspension and water turbidity. Our analysis revealed that strong bottom shear stresses triggered by wind-generated waves over newly flooded areas were related to an increase in water turbidity. The spatial variability of Siling Lake turbidity showed a strong dependence on local wind characteristics and fetch. Two factors combined to drive the increase in turbidity: (1) high wave energy leading to high bottom shear stresses, and (2) flooding of unvegetated shallow areas. Using a new relationship between wave energy and turbidity developed here, we expect the increase in turbidity of Siling Lake to taper off in the near future due to the steep landscape surrounding the lake that will prevent further flooding. Our results imply that rising water levels along the coast are not only expected to influence terrestrial ecosystems but could also change water quality. The methodology presented herein could be applied to other shorelines affected by a rapid increase in water level. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of long-term aerial exposure on intertidal mudflat erodibility

Intertidal zones by definition are exposed to air at low tide, and the exposure duration can be weeks (e.g. during neap tides) depending on water level and bed elevation. Here we investigated the effect of varying exposure duration (6 h to 10 days) on intertidal mudflat erosion (measured using the EROMES device), where the effects of water content and biofilm biomass (using chlorophyll-a content as a proxy, Chl-a μg g⁻¹) were taken into account. Sediments were collected between spring and summer (in October 2018, January 2019 and February 2019) from an intertidal site in the Firth of Thames, New Zealand. Longer exposure duration resulted in more stable sediments [higher erosion threshold (Ƭ_cr, N m⁻²) and lower erosion rate (ER, g m⁻² s⁻¹)]. After 10 days, exposure increased Ƭ_cr by 1.7 to 4.4 times and decreased ER by 11.6 to 21.5 times compared with 6 h of exposure. Chl-a and water content changed with exposure duration and were significantly correlated with changes in Ƭ_cr and ER. The stability of sediments after two re-submersion periods following exposure was also examined and showed that the stabilizing effect of exposure persisted even though water content had increased to non-exposure levels. Re-submersion was associated with an increase in Chl-a content, which likely counteracted the destabilizing influence of increased water content. A site-specific model, which included the interplay between evaporation and biofilm biomass, was developed to predict water content as a function of exposure duration. The modelled water content (W_Mod.) explained 98% of the observed variation in water content (W_Obs.). These results highlight how the exposure period can cause subtle changes to erosion regimes of sediments. An understanding of these effects (e.g. in sediment transport modelling) is critical to predicting the resilience of intertidal zones into the future, when sea-level rise is believed to exacerbate erosion in low-lying areas. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Groundwater age,mixing and flow rates in the vicinity of large open pit mines,Pilbara region,northwestern Australia

Determining groundwater ages from environmental tracer concentrations measured on samples obtained from open bores or long-screened intervals is fraught with difficulty because the sampled water represents a variety of ages. A multi-tracer technique (Cl, ¹⁴C, ³H, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113 and SF₆) was used to decipher the groundwater ages sampled from long-screened production bores in a regional aquifer around an open pit mine in the Pilbara region of northwest Australia. The changes in tracer concentrations due to continuous dewatering over 7 years (2008–2014) were examined, and the tracer methods were compared. Tracer concentrations suggest that groundwater samples are a mixture of young and old water; the former is inferred to represent localised recharge from an adjacent creek, and the latter to be diffuse recharge. An increase in ¹⁴C activity with time in wells closest to the creek suggests that dewatering of the open pit to achieve dry mining conditions has resulted in change in flow direction, so that localised recharge from the creek now forms a larger proportion of the pumped groundwater. The recharge rate prior to development, calculated from a steady-state Cl mass balance, is 6 mm/y, and is consistent with calculations based on the ¹⁴C activity. Changes in CFC-12 concentrations with time may be related to the change in water-table position relative to the depth of the well screen.     

Multivariate models for predicting glacier termini

Concerns over the rapid retreat rates of mountain glaciers have been rising as global temperatures have continued to increase. The extent of variation in the retreat of mountain glaciers can provide information about changes to different climatic conditions. Assessing the retreat rates of glaciers is crucial to assess the continuing existence of mountain glaciers and the ramifications of those retreats on water security for human societies. Therefore, mathematical and statistical models for the quantification of glacier dynamics in response to climate change are in high demand. In this research, we propose a multivariate regression model that estimates glacier change and predicts the location of glacier terminus over time, based on observed climate factors. The proposed method is applied to temporal sequences of ground observations for a number of glaciers around the globe. This model can potentially be used for monitoring glacier systems using climatic factors.