Were merely storm-landslides driven by the 2015-2016 Niño in the Mendoza River valley?

Since Holocene time, above-mean precipitations recorded during the El Niño warm ENSO phase have been linked to the occurrence of severe debris flows in the arid Central Andes. The 2015–2016 El Niño, for its unusual strength, began driving huge and dangerous landslides in the Central Andes (32°) in the recent South Hemisphere summer. The resulting damages negatively impacted the regional economy. Despite this, causes of these dangerous events were ambiguously reported. For this reason, a multidisciplinary study was carried out in the Mendoza River valley. Firstly, a geomorphological analysis of affected basins was conducted, estimating morphometric parameters of recorded events such as velocity, stream flow, and volume. Atmospheric conditions during such events were analyzed, considering precipitations, snow cover, temperature range, and the elevation of the zero isotherm. Based on our findings, the role of El Niño on the slope instability in the Central Andes is more complex in the climate change scenario. Even though some events were effectively triggered by intense summer rainstorm following expectations, the most dangerous events were caused by the progressive uplifting of the zero isotherm in smaller basins where headwaters are occupied by debris rock glaciers. Our research findings give light to the dynamic coupled system ENSO–climate change–landslides (ECCL) at least in this particular case study of the Mendoza River valley. Landslide activity in this Andean region is driven by wetter conditions linked to the ENSO warm phase, but also to progressive warming since the twentieth century in the region. This fact emphasizes the future impact of the natural hazards on Andean mountain communities.     

A nonstationary parameter model for the sandstone creep tests

The rock masses of hydro-fluctuation belt experience seepage pressure following impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir; its creep behaviors are significant for reservoir bank slopes. To study the creep behaviors under seepage pressure (0, 1.45, and 1.75 MPa), we performed creep tests using representative landslide sandstone in the Three Gorges Reservoir and investigated the sandstone creep behaviors under the coupling effects of seepage pressure and stress. Previous researches on rocks have usually regarded the creep constitutive parameter as a constant; however, in this study, a nonlinear, nonstationary, plastic-viscous (NNPV) creep model which can describe the curve of sandstone creep tests is proposed. The rock-creep parameters under three levels of seepage pressure were identified, and theoretical curves using the NNPV model agreed well with the experimental data, indicating that the new model cannot only describe the primary creep and secondary creep stages under varying seepage pressures but also, in particular, perfectly describes the tertiary creep stage. Finally, the sensitivity of the NNPV model parameters is analyzed, and the result shows that the nonstationary coefficient α and the nonlinear coefficient m are main parameters affecting the tertiary creep stage.     

Precursory slope distress prior to the 2010 Mount Meager landslide,British Columbia

In 2010, the south flank of Mount Meager failed catastrophically, generating the largest (53 ± 3.8 × 10⁶ m³) landslide in Canadian history. We document the slow deformation of the edifice prior to failure using archival historic aerial photographs spanning the period 1948–2006. All photos were processed using Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry. We used the SfM products to produce pre-and post-failure geomorphic maps that document changes in the volcanic edifice and Capricorn Glacier at its base. The photographic dataset shows that the Capricorn Glacier re-advanced from a retracted position in the 1980s then rapidly retreated in the lead-up to the 2010 failure. The dataset also documents 60 years of progressive development of faults, toe bulging, and precursory failures in 1998 and 2009. The 2010 collapse was conditioned by glacial retreat and triggered by hot summer weather that caused ice and snow to melt. Meltwater increased pore water pressures in colluvium and fractured rocks at the base of the slope, causing those materials to mobilize, which in turn triggered several secondary failures structurally controlled by lithology and faults. The landslide retrogressed from the base of the slope to near the peak of Mount Meager involving basement rock and the overlying volcanic sequence. Elsewhere on the flanks of Mount Meager, large fractures have developed in recently deglaciated areas, conditioning these slopes for future collapse. Potential failures in these areas have larger volumes than the 2010 landslide. Anticipated atmospheric warming over the next several decades will cause further loss of snow and glacier ice, likely producing additional slope instability. Satellite- and ground-based monitoring of these slopes can provide advanced warning of future landslides to help reduce risk in populated regions downstream.     

Numerical analysis of effect of baffle configuration on impact force exerted from rock avalanches

In mountainous areas, channelized rock avalanches swarm downslope leading to large impact forces on building structures in residential areas. Arrays of rock avalanche baffles are usually installed in front of rigid barriers to attenuate the flow energy of rock avalanches. However, previous studies have not sufficiently addressed the mechanisms of interaction between the rock avalanches and baffles. In addition, empirical design approaches such as debris flow (Tang et al., Quat Int 250:63–73, 2012), rockfall (Spang and Rautenstrauch, 1237–1243, 1988), snow avalanches (Favier et al., 14:3–15, 2012), and rock avalanches (Manzella and Labiouse, Landslides 10:23–36, 2013), which are applied in natural geo-disasters mitigation cannot met construction requirements. This study presents details of numerical modeling using the discrete element method (DEM) to investigate the effect of the configuration of baffles (number and spacing of baffle columns and rows) on the impact force that rock avalanches exert on baffles. The numerical modeling is firstly conducted to provide insights into the flow interaction between rock avalanches and an array of baffles. Then, a modeling analysis is made to investigate the change pattern of the impact force with respect to baffle configurations. The results demonstrate that three crucial influencing factors (baffle row numbers, baffle column spacing, and baffle row spacing) have close relationship with energy dissipation of baffles. Interestingly, it is found that capacity of energy dissipation of baffles increases with increasing baffle row numbers and baffle row spacing, while it decreases with increasing baffle column spacing. The results obtained from this study are useful for facilitating design of baffles against rock avalanches.     

Sensitivity analysis of automatic landslide mapping: numerical experiments towards the best solution

The automatic detection of landslides after major events is a crucial issue for public agencies to support disaster response. Pixel-based approaches (PBAs) are widely used in the literature for various applications. However, the accuracy of PBAs in the case of automatic landslide mapping (ALM) is affected by several issues. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ALM using PBA through digital terrain models (DTMs). The analysis, carried out in a study area of Poland, consisted of the following steps: (1) testing the influence of selected DTM resolutions for ALM, (2) assessing the relevance of diverse landslide morphological indicators for ALM, and (3) assessing the sensitivity to landslide features for a selected size of moving window (kernel) calculations for ALM. Ultimately, we assessed the performance of three classification methods: maximum likelihood (ML), feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and support vector machine (SVM). This broad analysis, as combination of grid cell resolution, surface derivatives calculation, and performance classification methods, is the challenging aspect of the research. The results of almost 500 experimental tests provide valuable guidelines for experts performing ALM. The most important findings indicate that feature sensitivity in the case of kernel size increases with coarser DTM resolution; however, the peak of the optimal feature performance for the selected study area and landslide type was demonstrated for a resolution of 20 m. Another finding indicated that in combining a set of topographic variables, the optimal performance was acquired for a DTM resolution of 30 m and the support vector machine classification. Moreover, the best performance of the identification is represented for SVM classification.     

Implementing landslide path dependency in landslide susceptibility modelling

Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling.     

Residual-state creep of clastic soil in a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region,China

We study the creep properties of clastic soil in residual state. The intact samples are taken from a reactivated slow-moving landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. Firstly, the patterns of the landslide movement are analysed based on recent monitoring data, which indicate that the soil within the shear zone is undergoing two deformation processes: a creep phase, characterised by different creep rates, and a dormant phase. We then study the creep behaviour of the soil samples through a series of ring shear creep tests under various shear stress conditions. The creep response depends strongly on the ratio of the shear stress to the residual strength, and the normal effective stress, whereas the creep rate decreases due to strength regain. The long-term strength of the clastic soil is close to the residual strength. Therefore, the residual strength obtained from conventional shear test, which is less time consuming than creep test, can be used in long-term stability analyses of creeping landslides.     

Study on the deformation and failure modes of filling slope in loess filling engineering: a case study at a loess mountain airport

Lvliang airport is a typical loess filling engineering located in 20.5 km north of Lvliang City in Shanxi Province, China. By the end of March 2012, 14 fissures extending more than 7.5 m were observed in a loess-filled slope, of which the longest fissure is up to 82 m. Field monitoring and laboratory tests have been performed to investigate the slope failure modes. The test program includes wetting tests on unsaturated compacted samples and stress path tests on saturated samples. Field monitoring and observations show that differential settlement caused by non-homogeneity in compacted loess density might lead to the formation of fissures in the loess-filled slope. It was founded that the wetting deformation contributed to the development of differential settlement. Fissures are the essential factor for the loess-filled slope failure. Four deformation stages exhibit in the loess-filled slope prior final failure including development of the fissures, softening of the compacted loess, creeping of the slope leading edge and fissuring of the trailing edge and formation of the through-sliding surface. Development of the sliding surface mainly includes upward and downward expansion of the fissures. Upward expansion is a wetting failure process in loading condition, while downward expansion is a load-off wetting process. In addition, development of the sliding surface is accelerated by softening of the compacted soils as a result of water infiltration. Therefore, the key for taking countermeasures against filling landslides is to monitor and control the development of differential settlement and fissures in the slope shoulders. Digging out and extra-filling the fissures are an effective way for preventing these landslides.