Understanding the implications of the EU-LULUCF regulation for the wood supply from EU forests to the EU

Background

In June 2018, the European Parliament and Council of the European Union adopted a legislative regulation for incorporating greenhouse gas emissions and removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (EU-LULUCF) under its 2030 Climate and Energy Framework. The LULUCF regulation aim to incentivise EU Member States to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and increase removals in the LULUCF sector. The regulation, however, does not set a target for increasing the LULUCF carbon sink, but rather includes a ‘no net debit’ target for LULUCF (Forests and Agricultural soils). For Managed Forest Land (MFL) an accounting framework with capped credits for additional mitigation against a set forest reference level (FRL) was agreed for 2021–2030. The FRL gives the projected future carbon sink in the two compliance periods 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 under “continuation of forest management practices as they were in the reference period 2000–2009”. This FRL was disputed by some Member States as it was perceived to put a limit on their future wood harvesting from MFL. Here we simulated with the EFISCEN European forest model the “continuation of forest management practices” and determined the corresponding wood harvest for 26 EU countries under progressing age classes.

Results

The simulations showed that under “continuation of forest management practices” the harvest (wood removals) in the 26 EU countries as a whole can increase from 420 million m³/year in 2000–2009 to 560 million m³/year in 2050 due to progressing age classes. This implies there is a possibility to increase absolute wood harvests without creating debits compared to the forest reference level. However, the manner in which ‘continuation of forest management’ developed with a progressing age class development over time, meant that in some countries the future harvesting exceeded 90% of the increment. Since this generally is considered to be unsustainable we additionally set a harvesting cut-off as max 90% of increment to be harvested for each individual country as a possible interpretation of sustainability criteria that are included in the regulation. Using this additional limit the projected harvest will only increase to 493 million m³/year.

Conclusions

The worry from Member States (MS) that the FRL will prevent any additional harvesting seems unwarranted. Due to differences between Member States concerning the state of their forest resources, the FRL as a baseline for harvesting works out very differently for the different Member States. The FRL may have other unforeseen consequences which we discuss. Under all scenarios the living forest biomass sink shows a decline. This can be counteracted through incentivising measures under Climate Smart Forestry.

     

Automated mapping of rock slope geometry,kinematics and stability with RSS-GIS

A GIS-implemented, deterministic approach for the automated spatial evaluation of geometrical and kinematical properties of rock slope terrains is presented. Based on spatially distributed directional information on planar geological fabrics and DEM-derived topographic attribute data, the internal geometry of rock slopes can be characterized on a grid cell basis. For such computations, different approaches for the analysis and regionalization of available structural directional information applicable in specific tectonic settings are demonstrated and implemented in a GIS environment. Simple kinematical testing procedures based on feasibility criteria can be conducted on a pixel basis to determine which failure mechanisms are likely to occur at particular terrain locations. In combination with hydraulic and strength data on geological discontinuities, scenario-based rock slope stability evaluations can be performed. For conceptual investigations on rock slope failure processes, a GIS-based specification tool for a 2-D distinct element code (UDEC) was designed to operate with the GIS-encoded spatially distributed rock slope data. The concepts of the proposed methodology for rock slope hazard assessments are demonstrated at three different test sites in Germany.     

DTP系统环境下地图的制作与出版

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3维场景植被冠层多波段模拟研究进展

植被冠层辐射散射信号中蕴含了丰富的植被信息,通过构建植被冠层辐射散射模型,可以实现植被结构等生物物理参数的遥感定量反演。迄今为止,可见光/近红外、热红外、微波波段均已发展了大量的模型,这些模型在参数反演方面各具优势,但不同波段的模型又有其自身的局限性。跨波段的联合模拟可以实现模型间的优势互补,进而提高地表参数的反演精度,近年来已有学者专注于可见光/近红外与热红外模型,热红外与微波模型,主被动微波模型,以及可见光/近红外与微波模型的联合模拟和协同反演,但多是两两联合,且主要是基于经验模型或解析模型。基于3维场景的植被冠层辐射散射特性模拟模型可以细致刻画不同组分的结构和空间分布特征,对于由植被结构引起的多次散射和组分比例变化的考虑具有优势。本文主要介绍了3维模拟模型在可见光/近红外、热红外和微波波段,以及跨波段联合模拟方面的研究进展,从模型机理、场景统一、以及组分理化参数的统一的角度,探讨了构建多波段3维模拟系统的可行性,展望了多波段3维模拟模型的发展趋势。     

WGS-84&CGCS2000坐标基准转换参数的初步求取

针对WGS-84CGCS2000坐标基准差异问题,分析了用于估计基准转换参数的Bursa模型及其求解方法,初步尝试求取WGS-84CGCS2000的坐标基准转换参数。算例采用了中国区域内含有CGCS2000坐标值,同时安装有GPS接收机的21个观测站,并针对点位的区域分布问题,提出利用重心化的Bursa模型求解转换参数的思路,且得到一组较好的转换结果。     

结合微博数据挖掘的时空特征分析

在大数据背景下处理海量数据时,数据的获取和分析手段至关重要。本文运用网络平台的开放接口API,对特定的地理区域和特定的用户采集包含时空信息的数据,建立了一个通过模拟登录自动发送网络请求,解析与提取返回数据,集数据采集、处理、入库于一体的微博数据采集系统;用微博数据的发布位置分布及集聚状态研究了用户的行为特征。试验表明,该方法可为事件发现、趋势预测、用户特征分析等方面提供信息。     

地面数字化测图模拟与仿真平台的三维可视化

介绍地面数字化测图模拟与仿真平台三维建模的基本思想,给出了地面数字化测图模拟与仿真平台三维建模过程和建模中相关问题的解决办法,达到了平台在GIS软件中多方位的动态三维可视化效果。     

矿山巷道三维建模数据组织与算法研究

巷道作为矿山的重要组成部分,在矿山开发建设过程中发挥着重要作用,基于虚拟现实技术的巷道三维模拟能够为采矿工程、安全生产、施工、人员及设备管理等提供直观的数据展示和决策支持,其精确程度直接影响着矿山的工程质量与采选能力。本文主要探讨巷道三维建模数据组织方法,直壁拱形断面巷道三维建模的关键算法,并基于实验数据,利用OGRE三维引擎技术完成巷道三维自动建模,验证了数据组织和算法的有效性和优越性。     

一种新的近似平行沟渠群的典型化方法

提出并实现了一种针对近似平行沟渠群的典型化方法。首先,建立沟渠的方位关系图,通过生成关系图中各连通分量的极大完全子图,提取近似平行的沟渠;然后,依据视觉认知规律定义沟渠间的认知距离,并基于最小生成树的剪枝对沟渠进行分组;接着,运用K-means ++算法对分组后的沟渠进行重新表达;最后,通过比较综合前后沟渠群的外轮廓相似性以及沟渠分布密度的差异,对典型化结果进行了评价。对广州市数据进行了实验,结果表明该方法能有效进行近似平行的沟渠群的典型化。