Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake

Abstract

A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air–water interface factor, water–sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air–water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60–70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water–sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

青藏高原东南部来古冰湖变化及其溃决洪水评估

冰湖溃决洪水(Glacial lake outburst flood,简称GLOF)灾害是冰川区最常见、危害最大的灾害类型之一,历来是国内外学者研究的关键科学问题。在全球变暖的大背景下,冰川退缩加剧,其下游冰湖扩张快速,湖面升高,溃决风险提高。青藏高原尤其是东南部地区孕育着大量的冰湖,在过去的几十年间,冰湖溃决洪水威胁着当地人民的生产生活。基于LANDSAT遥感影像,本文获取了青藏高原东南部雅弄冰川和来古冰湖1986年、1990年、1994年、1997年、2000年、2003年、2005年、2011年、2013年和2017年共10期湖面面积,并结合实地测量的冰湖水深资料,计算了冰湖对应年份的储水量,建立冰湖面积与储水量变化序列;结合野外调查从冰湖面积与水量变化趋势和突发事件两方面探讨冰湖溃决可能性;利用BREACH模型和SMPDBK模型估算和模拟来古冰湖溃决洪水,做灾害预警分析。结果表明,1986~2017年冰湖上湖变化不大,而来谷下湖处于持续扩张中,面积由1986年的1.151±0.070 km^2扩张至2017年的3.148±0.097 km^2,水量由0.645×10^8 m^3增加至2.143×10^8 m^3,雅弄冰川在1986~2013年持续后退,在2013~2017年突然前进;经讨论其溃决风险得出冰川滑动入湖导致湖水瞬时涌出从而造成溃坝的可能性较高;利用BREACH模型及SMPDBK模型对来古冰湖溃决洪水模拟结果表明,当来古下湖湖水受冰体挤压抬升发生溃决时,溃决洪水将严重威胁然乌镇及其上游居民的生命和财物安全。     

Estimating the contribution of glacial meltwater to Ranwu Lake,a proglacial lake in SE Tibet,using observation data and stable isotopic analyses

It is important for both current monitoring and paleoenvironmental research conducted on proglacial lakes and their adjacent glaciers to clarify the hydrological processes operating on these lakes. However, in remote regions with limited accessibility it may be difficult to study hydrological processes by direct monitoring. In this study, we use measurements of stable isotopic compositions to trace the multiple water sources contributing to Ranwu Lake, a proglacial lake in south-eastern Tibet. Using stable isotopic data from precipitation, inflowing rivers and the lake water, a water and isotope mass balance modelling method was used to calculate the ratio of evaporation to input. Subsequently, using hydrological and climatic data for the outflow, the largest inflow and precipitation, other hydrological elements of the lake water balance were also calculated. The results demonstrate that the ratio of evaporation to inflow is as low as 0.009, the lowest value observed for the Tibetan Plateau, indicating that Ranwu Lake is a through-flow lake with a very short retention time. Glacial meltwater accounts for at least 55% of total runoff, the highest value observed for the Tibetan Plateau, indicating that the sediments of Ranwu Lake may have considerable potential for reconstructing variations in the activity of the local glaciers. Finally, we note that it may be inappropriate in this glacier-fed lake to use the intersection of the local meteoric water line with the lake water line for determining the isotopic composition of the input water, and this possibility must be carefully considered when stable isotope mass modelling is used in proglacial lakes.     

Composition, spatial distribution, and environmental significance of water ions in Pumayum Co catchment, southern Tibet

The chemistry of major cations (Mg2+, Ca2+, Na+, and K+) and anions (HCO3 ?, SO4 2?, and Cl?) in the water of Lake Pumayum Co and its inflow river was studied, revealing the obvious ionic difference among various inflow rivers and the lake. The chemical type of the lake water was Mg2+-Ca2+-HCO3 ?-SO4 2+, but the major ions of the main inflow rivers were Ca2+-Mg2+-HCO3 ?. In the lake inlet of Jiaqu River, the main inflow river, there was significant variance of water chemistry within the depth less than 2 m. However, it was almost homogeneous at other area of the lake. Therefore, with the evidence of distribution of water chemistry and oxygen isotope of lake water, a conclusion can be outlined that Jiaqu River had a distinct effect on the hydrochemistry of the water on the submerged delta, whereas this is not the case for other rivers. The Gibbs plot revealed that the dominant mechanism responsible for controlling chemical compositions of the lake water was rocks weathering in the drainage area. Ion ratios and ternary plots further explored the main processes controlling the water chemistry of the catchment, i.e., carbonate weathering, pyrite weathering, and silicate weathering. The different hydrochemistry characteristics between river water and lake water may result from the CaCO3 precipitation. The findings will benefit the explanation of the environmental significance of carbonate in paleolimnological studies in the lake.     

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958–2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations (WS) of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges (RG) of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958–2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995–2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958–2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.     

两种激光粒度仪测量湖泊沉积物粒度结果的对比

湖泊沉积物粒度参数是湖泊沉积与环境演变研究中常用的环境指标,近年来激光粒度仪的发展和广泛使用更是促进了粒度指标的应用并在很大程度上提高了精度和效率.然而不同的激光粒度仪对于同一样品的测量会得到不同的结果,本文利用两种常见的激光粒度仪测量了西藏纳木错的两支岩芯,并对结果进行了对比分析.从仪器的重现性来看,Mastersizer2000型激光粒度仪要优于LS13320型激光粒度仪,而LS13320型激光粒度仪在对含量较少的细颗粒和粗颗粒的检测效果上优于Mastersizer2000型激光粒度仪;两种仪器得到的粒度参数d(0.1)和d(0.5)无论在变化趋势还是绝对数值上都较为相似,而d(0.9)的差异则较大.对比研究结果为利用湖泊沉积物粒度参数提取古环境信息研究提供了基础依据.     

气候变化对中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响评价

将耦合暴露度、灾害风险、敏感性与抗压性的脆弱性评估模型应用于中国东部季风区水资源脆弱性评价,从水资源供需平衡角度分析了气候变化对东部季风区水资源脆弱性的影响。结果表明,2000年气候条件下,我国东部季风区接近90%的区域水资源处于中度脆弱及以上状态。其中水资源中度和高度脆弱区域约占全区的75%,极端脆弱区域接近15%。中国北方海河、黄河、淮河和辽河流域的水资源脆弱性最高。未来气候变化影响将加剧水资源脆弱性的风险,不同RCP排放情景下2030年代我国东部季风区水资源中度脆弱及以上区域面积有明显的扩大,极端脆弱区域将达到20%～25%。由于未来需水的进一步增加,中国北方水资源脆弱性的格局并未发生根本变化,而南方东南诸河等区域将面临可能发生的水危机。     

气候变化对密云水库水资源的影响及其适应性管理对策

 密云水库近30 a入库水资源量日益减少,严重影响城市供水和可持续发展,其中气候变化对水资源的影响成为最受关注的问题之一。以海河流域密云水库的水资源供应为例,研究了气候变化对入库水资源的影响。结果表明：除SRES A2情景下在2025年入库流量减少外,其他情景均表现为入库流量增加。对入库流量增加的情景,采用"零调整方案",即不采取调整措施是可以的,但由于未来北京水资源压力较大,有必要采取一些综合对策。通过多目标条件分析,为解决北京的饮用水供应问题,建议采用开源（跨河流调水）、节流（水田改旱地）及污水治理三管齐下的方案。     

湖芯沉积物揭示的末次冰消开始时期 普莫雍错湖区环境变化*

文章讨论了末次冰消开始时期青藏高原南部普莫雍错湖芯沉积反映的环境暖湿化以及原因。通过对现代湖泊和周边河流水文状况调查,发现流域内发育众多冰川,冰川融水构成维持湖面稳定的重要来源;湖面以及湖泊沉积环境的变化与冰川融水以及相应的温度改变具有密切的联系。利用湖泊沉积岩芯PM-1孔,通过加速器¹⁴ C测年和粒度、元素、碳酸盐含量、总有机碳以及有机碳同位素、总氮、分子标志化合物、孢粉等环境指标的分析,发现在16.4~15.4cal.kaB.P.有大量流水进入湖泊,使湖面扩大,湖水加深;流域地表产生大量有机碎屑,并被流水带入湖泊进行沉积;流域内的喜湿植被得以发展。该时段湖泊扩张、陆源植被发展的原因一方面得益于冰期过后气候向温暖湿润方向转化,另一方面温度上升带来大量冰川融水则可能具有更加重要的影响,对于深入理解当前青藏高原冰川普遍退缩和一些湖泊的水面上涨具有重要的参考价值。