SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

北秦岭晋宁期中酸性侵入岩带地球化学特征与构造环境

北秦岭侵入岩带中的中酸性侵入岩主要形成于晋宁旋回的中晚期阶段。主要岩石类型包括辉石闪长岩、闪长岩、石英闪长岩、英云闪长岩、花岗闪长岩、斜长花岗岩、花岗岩和钾长花岗岩。岩石化学、稀土元素和微量元素地球化学研究证明,这些岩石主要形成于B型俯冲和碰撞造山的构造环境中,而钾长花岗岩形成于后造山的伸展阶段。据此,该侵入岩带揭示了北秦岭褶皱带在晋宁旋回中晚期阶段的演化过程。     

Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.     

STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NDVI PROFILE AND THE GROWING STATUS OF CROPS

Daily and ten-day Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) of crops were retrieved from meteorological statellite NOAA AVHRR images ,The temporal variations of the NDVI were analyzed during the whole growing season,and thus the principle of the interaction between NDIV profile and the growing status of crops was discussed,As a case in point,the relationship between integral NDVI and winter wheat yield of Henan Province in 1999 had been analyzed.By putting integral NDVI values of 60 sample counties into the winter wheat yield-integral NDVI coordination,scattering map was plotted. It demonstrated that integral NDVI had a close relation with winter wheat yield.These relation could be described with linear,cubic polynomial ,and exponential regression,and the cubic polynomial regression was the best way,In general ,NDVI reflects growing status of green vegetation ,so crop monitoring and crop yield estimation could be realized by using remote sensing technique on the basis of time serial NDVI data together with agriculture calendars.     

DISASTER ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES OF LAND SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY COAL CUTTING IN CHINA

In recent years, many coal-producing countries have paid great attention to the land subsidence causedby coal cutting. In China, because of the dense population in coalfield areas, the land subsidence hazard is more seri-ous. After a brief analysis on the mechanism of land subsidence, this paper gives a comprehensive and systematical ac-count on all kinds of hazards caused by the land subsidence in China. The study shows that land subsidence has endan-gered land, buildings, traffic and communication lines, dykes and dams. It also causes damage to ecological and socialenvironment. In order to lessen the hazard of land subsidence, preventive measures should be taken to reduce the col-lapse amount, such as extraction with stowing, banded mining system, succession and coordination mining system, orhigh-pressure mudflow between rock strata. Measures of reinforcing or moving certain buildings should also be taken toreduce the destructive degree. In order to harness the subsidence land and bring them under control for fanning, mea-sures should be taken such as filling with spoil or fine breeze, excavating the deeper and covering the shallower land.     

Magnetic Reconnection, Turbulence, and Collisionless Shock

A short summary of recent progress in measuring and understanding turbulence during magnetic reconnection in laboratory plasmas is given. Magnetic reconnection is considered as a primary process to dissipate magnetic energy in laboratory and astrophysical plasmas. A central question concerns why the observed reconnection rates are much faster than predictions made by classical theories, such as the Sweet–Parker model based on MHD with classical Spitzer resistivity. Often, the local resistivity is conjectured to be enhanced by turbulence to accelerate reconnection rates either in the context of the Sweet–Parker model or by facilitating setup of the Pestchek model. Measurements at a dedicated laboratory experiment, called MRX or Magnetic Reconnection Experiment, have indicated existence of strong electromagnetic turbulence in current sheets undergoing fast reconnection. The origin of the turbulence has been identified as right-hand polarized whistler waves, propagating obliquely to the reconnecting field, with a phase velocity comparable to the relative drift velocity. These waves are consistent with an obliquely propagating electromagnetic lower-hybrid drift instability driven by drift speeds large compared to the Alfven speed in high-beta plasmas. Interestingly, this instability may explain electromagnetic turbulence also observed in collisionless shocks, which are common in energetic astrophysical phenomena.     

SORPTION AND DESORPTION CHARACTERISTICS OF CADMIUM BY FOUR DIFFERENT SOILS IN NORTHEAST CHINA

1IN TR O D U C TIO NA s a persistentand toxic pollutant, cadm ium (C d) canresultin m any adverse health effects in a variety oftis-suesand organssuch asthe lung,kidney,urinary,blad-der,pancreas,breast and prostate (SA TA R U G etal.,2003).C adm ium in so…     

Tidal effects on temperature front in the Yellow Sea

Temperature front (TF) is one of the important features in the Yellow Sea, which forms in spring, thrives in summer, and fades in autumn as thermocline declines. TF intensity ⋎S _T ⋎ is defined to describe the distribution of TF. Based on the MASNUM wave-tide-circulation coupled model, temperature distribution in the Yellow Sea was simulated with and without tidal effects. Along 36°N, distribution of TF from the simulated results are compared with the observations, and a quantitative analysis is introduced to evaluate the tidal effects on the forming and maintaining processes of the TF. Tidal mixing and the circulation structure adapting to it are the main causes of the TF. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (No. G1999043809) and the National Science Foundation of China (No. 49736190).     

A New Solar Radio Spectrometer at 1.10-2.06 GHz and First Observational Results

An improved Solar Radio Spectrometer working at 1.10-2.06 GHz with much improved spectral and temporal resolution, has been accomplished by the National Astronomical Observatories and Hebei Semiconductor Research Institute, based on an old spectrometer at 1-2 GHz. The new spectrometer has a spectral resolution of 4 MHz and a temporal resolution of 5ms, with an instantaneous detectable range from 0.02 to 10 times of the quiet Sun flux. It can measure both left and right circular polarization with an accuracy of 10% in degree of polarization. Some results of preliminary observations that could not be recorded by the old spectrometer at 1-2 GHz are presented.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.