汶川地震断裂作用研究新认识

2008年汶川地震后,人们不得不思考问题是:大地震是如何发生的?下一次大地震什么时候发生?也就是涉及地质学家和地球物理学家一直未解决的科学问题:断层是如何破裂的?震后断裂是如何愈合的?我们试图通过对汶川地震断裂带结构、断裂摩擦行为和断裂愈合过程的研究来回答这些问题。本文将介绍通过对地表露头和汶川地震断裂科学钻探一号孔(WFSD)岩心中汶川地震主滑移带的详细研究,以及钻孔中长期温度监测来分析有关汶川地震断裂动态弱化和摩擦行为,并结合钻孔中长期水文监测计算所得断裂带渗透率变化,分析震后断裂愈合过程,进而探讨和认识汶川地震断裂作用所涉及的上述问题。经过详细研究,确定了汶川地震断裂带(映秀—北川断裂带)宽105~240 m、具有五个不同断裂岩组合的内部结构,是一条经常发生大地震、具多种弱化机制的断裂带;发现了汶川地震不仅具有同震石墨化作用,而且测量到目前世界上最低的动态摩擦系数(≤0.02),同时首次记录到大地震后断裂快速愈合信息。这些研究结果不仅直接回答了一直困扰在地震地质和地震物理学领域几十年的关键问题,而且对完善地震断裂理论和认识汶川地震机制具有极其重要的意义,为防震减灾提供了理论依据。     

The dependence of the climate sensitivity on convective parametrization: statistical evaluation

Two sensitivity experiments, in which CO₂ is instantaneously doubled, have been performed with a general circulation model to determine the influence of the convective parametrization on simulated climate change. We have examined the spatial structure of changes in the annual mean and annual cycle for surface temperature and precipitation for both experiments; similarly we have examined changes in the variance for these two fields. We have also computed a range of test statistics in order to obtain reliable measures of the signal-to-noise ratio in the climate change signal from each experiment. We have computed test statistics for the entire globe and for five different region and we contrast the global response with the response in the Australian region taken as a representative sample.We find that the highest signal-to-noise ratios in the change from 1 * CO₂ to 2 * CO₂ are for the change in surface temperature for both experiments with little difference in the global averages between the experiments. Globally averaged precipitation shows a greater noise level but perhaps the greatest contrast between experiments. There are generally significant increases in the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation in the change from the 1 * CO₂ to 2 * CO₂ and with some differences apparent between the two experiments. The temporal variability of surface temperature does not change significantly in any of the 2 * CO₂ cases, and there is little difference between the experiments. There is a significant decrease in the spatial variability of surface temperature in all 2 * CO₂ experiments in all cases and with significant differences in the seasonal variations between different experiments. The spatial variability of precipitation increases in all 2 * CO₂ cases and also with substantial differences in the seasonal variations between the experiments. There are accompanying significantly different spatial pattern correlations for both surface temperature and precipitation. In general we find that the global changes are fairly robust with the differences associated with convective parametrization schemes being very small. However, at the regional level, there are marked differences between experiments with changes both in the means and in the spatial and temporal variances but often with low levels of significance.     

QUEST on DASI: a South Pole CMB polarization experiment

QUEST on DASI is a ground-based, high-sensitivity, high-resolution (ℓ_max2500) experiment designed to map CMB polarization at 100 and 150 GHz and to measure the power spectra from E-modes, B-modes from lensing of the CMB, and B-modes from primordial gravitational waves. The experiment comprises a 2.6 m Cassegrain optical system, equipped with an array of 62 polarization-sensitive bolometers (PSBs), located at the South Pole. The instrument is designed to minimize systematic effects; features include differencing of pairs of orthogonal PSBs within a single feed, a rotatable achromatic waveplate, and axisymmetric rotatable optics. In addition the South Pole location allows both repeatable and highly controlled observations. QUEST on DASI will commence operation in early 2005.     

The Cold Bay Volcanic Center,Aleutian Volcanic arc

The widespread abundance of Hi-Alumina Basalt (HAB) lavas in most volcanic arcs has been suggested by some as evidence for a primary, parental HAB magma generated by the high pressure melting of subducted oceanic crust (quartz eclogite). Others suggest a parental, mantle-derived olivine tholeiite magma which produces HAB magmas through fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene, chrome-spinel +/– plagioclase. The petrology and geochemistry of seven HAB lavas from the Aleutian Cold Bay Volcanic Center have been studied in order to specifically address these two possibilities. All lavas show mineralogical and compositional features typical of most Aleutian HAB lavas. Coexisting opx and cpx in a closely associated basaltic-andesite indicate a minimum pre-eruption temperature of 1,110° C. A comparison of the observed (plag-tmag-olivcpx) and experimentally determined crystallization sequences yields a minimum pre-eruption pressure estimate of 7 kb and estimated H₂O contents of 0.7 wt.%. Maximum pre-eruption f _{o 2} values have been estimated at NNO+0.6 log units.Mass balance calculations demonstrate that the HAB compositions are satisfied by the fractionation of olivine, clinopyroxene +/– plagioclase from a primitive (Mg-# > 65) parental tholeiite. Plagioclase accumulation does not play a significant role in their origin. Many of the same compositional characteristics are also satisfied by high pressure melting of altered ocean ridge tholeiite +5 v.% pelagic sediment (quartz eclogite). The available HAB phase equilibria data do not support a fractionation origin but do support an origin involving high pressure melting of quartz eclogite. The lack of compositional zonation in the HAB phenocrysts, and the complete absence of disequilibrium MgO-rich mafic phenocrysts further argue against a tholeiite fractionation origin.Consideration of all these features indicates that the geochemical data are permissive in their interpretation. A process involving tholeiite fractionation successfully predicts the compositions of the HAB lavas but is at odds with the mineralogical and phase equilibria evidence. With some exceptions (notably Ni, Cr and Sr abundances), a process of high pressure quartz eclogite melting is consistent with the compositional, mineralogical and phase equilibria characteristics of these HAB lavas. When the relative merits of both origins are weighed it is apparent that a quartz eclogite source satisfies more of important features of these HAB lavas.Extrusive rocks have been grouped on a basis of SiO₂ content into basalt (<52 wt.%), basaltic-andesite (52–56 wt.%) and andesite (>56 wt.%) after Ewart (1982)     

The origin and distribution of HAPs elements in relation to maceral composition of the A1 lignite bed (Paleocene, Calvert Bluff Formation, Wilcox Group), Calvert mine area, east-central Texas

The origin and distribution of twelve potentially Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs; As, Be, Cd, Cr, Co, Hg, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, and U) identified in the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments were examined in relation to the maceral composition of the A1 bed (Paleocene, Calvert Bluff Formation, Wilcox Group) of the Calvert mine in east-central Texas. The 3.2 m-thick A1 bed was divided into nine incremental channel samples (7 lignite samples and 2 shaley coal samples) on the basis of megascopic characteristics. Results indicate that As, Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, Sb, and U are strongly correlated with ash yield and are enriched in the shaley coal samples. We infer that these elements are associated with inorganic constituents in the coal bed and may be derived from a penecontemporaneous stream channel located several kilometers southeast of the mining block. Of the HAPs elements studied, Mn and Hg are the most poorly correlated to ash yield. We infer an organic association for Mn; Hg may be associated with pyrite. The rest of the trace elements (Be, Co, and Se) are weakly correlated with ash yield. Further analytical work is necessary to determine the mode of occurrence for these elements. Overall, concentrations of the HAPs elements are generally similar to or less than those reported in previous studies of lignites of the Wilcox Group, east-central region, Texas. Petrographic analysis indicates the following ranges in composition for the seven lignite samples: liptinites (5–8%), huminites (88–95%), and inertinites (trace amounts to 7%). Samples from the middle portion of the A1 bed contain abundant crypto-eugelinite compared to the rest of the samples; this relationship suggests that the degradation of plant material was an important process during the development of the peat mire. With the exception of Hg and Mn, relatively low levels of the HAPs elements studied are found in the samples containing abundant crypto-eugelinite. We infer that the peat-forming environment for this portion of the coal bed was very wet with minimal detrital input. Relatively high concentrations of crypto-humotelinite were found in samples from the top and base of the coal bed. The presence of abundant crypto-humotefinite in this part of the coal bed suggests the accumulation of wood-rich peat under conditions conducive to a high degree of tissue preservation in the peat mire. Although several of the trace elements (Be, Co, Ni, and Sb) exhibit enrichment in these samples, they are not necessarily chemically associated with humotelinite. We infer that these elements, with the exception of Be, are possibly associated with deposition of the roof and floor rock of the coal bed; however, further analytical work would be necessary to confirm this hypothesis. Beryllium may have an organic origin.     

Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Atmospheric Precursors of and Response to Anomalous Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP5 Models

This study examines pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP5 climate models in an effort to better understand the complex relationships between Arctic sea ice and the stratosphere, and between Arctic sea ice and cold winter temperatures over Eurasia. We present normalized regressions of Arctic sea-ice area against several atmospheric variables at extended lead and lag times. Statistically significant regressions are found at leads and lags, suggesting both atmospheric precursors of, and responses to, low sea ice; but generally, the regressions are stronger when the atmosphere leads sea ice, including a weaker polar stratospheric vortex indicated by positive polar cap height anomalies. Significant positive midlatitude eddy heat flux anomalies are also found to precede low sea ice. We argue that low sea ice and raised polar cap height are both a response to this enhanced midlatitude eddy heat flux. The so-called "warm Arctic, cold continents" anomaly pattern is present one to two months before low sea ice, but is absent in the months following low sea ice, suggesting that the Eurasian cooling and low sea ice are driven by similar processes. Lastly, our results suggest a dependence on the geographic region of low sea ice, with low Barents–Kara Sea ice correlated with a weakened polar stratospheric vortex, whilst low Sea of Okhotsk ice is correlated with a strengthened polar vortex. Overall, the results support a notion that the sea ice, polar stratospheric vortex and Eurasian surface temperatures collectively respond to large-scale changes in tropospheric circulation.     

Can gas dynamics in centres of galaxies reveal orbiting massive black holes?

If supermassive black holes in centres of galaxies form by merging of black hole remnants of massive Population III stars, then there should be a few black holes of mass one or two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the central ones, orbiting around the centre of a typical galaxy. These black holes constitute a weak perturbation in the gravitational potential, which can generate wave phenomena in gas within a disc close to the centre of the galaxy. Here, we show that a single orbiting black hole generates a three-arm spiral pattern in the central gaseous disc. The density excess in the spiral arms in the disc reaches values of 3–12 per cent when the orbiting black hole is about 10 times less massive than the central black hole. Therefore, the observed density pattern in gas can be used as a signature in detecting the most massive orbiting black holes.     

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Si,Al ordering in leucite by high-resolution 27Al MAS NMR spectroscopy

High-resolution ²⁷Al MAS NMR spectra of natural leucite recorded at H ₀=11.7T contain three resolvable resonances at ²⁷Al δ _i = 69.2, 64.7, and 61.0±0.5 ppm. These three resonances are assigned to the three inequivalent framework positions of leucite: T3, T2, and T1, respectively. Fitting the observed spectra yields a Si,Al distribution for leucite in which approximately one-half of the Al is in T1 and one-quarter in each of T2 and T3. This Si,Al distribution differs substantially from those obtained by previous workers using ²⁹Si NMR spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction. New ²⁹Si NMR spectra and revision of previously reported ²⁹Si NMR peak assignments, however, make the ²⁷Al and ²⁹Si NMR results consistent. The ²⁷Al δ _i correlate linearly with the mean T-O-T′ bond angles of the average structure, which allows the peak assignments to be made. However, this correlation lies distinctly toward higher frequency and larger bond angles than correlations for Si,Al ordered aluminosilicates, suggesting that the mean T(Al)-O-T′(Si) bond angle for each site in leucite is smaller than the mean bond angle of the average structure, which is averaged over T(Al)-O-T′(Si) and T(Si)-OT′(Si,Al) angles.