K 近邻非参数回归概率预报技术及其应用

针对参数回归技术制作概率预报存在拟合好、但预报结果不稳定的现象, 提出了用K近邻非参数回归技术制作概率预报的新途径。K 近邻非参数回归技术包括历史样本数据库、近邻子集生成和优化以及预报量估计4 个主要部分。利用该技术进行了单要素概率预报(主要包括云量和降水)和多维联合概率预报(降水、总云量、风速和气温)试验, 并对试验结果进行了检验。实例研究结果表明:该文所给出的计算方案预报稳定性好, 准确率较高,具有良好的业务应用价值。     

Study on cut-off low-pressure systems with floods over Northeast Asia

Summary The cut-off lows (COLs) during the period from June to August 1998 leading to the record flood in Northeast Asia, especially in Northeast China, has been investigated in this paper. The results are as follows: the blocking highs benefited significantly the formation and maintenance of COLs over Northeast China; an obvious frontogenesis zone existed in Northeast China and it implies that baroclinity played an important role in the initiation of COLs, especially in middle and upper troposphere; the maxima of the potential vorticity anomaly were located in the upper troposphere, then extended downwards to the middle and the lower troposphere. The pronounced interaction between systems in upper-middle and low troposphere can be revealed; the moisture supply was from South China, and even from East China Sea and South China Sea. The strong southerly current transported very rich moisture to Northeast China. The maximum of the convergence of moisture flux was below 850 hPa. Obvious interaction between the middle and lower latitude systems was found in the study. Also, the summer monsoon showed significant impacts on the sustained heavy rainfalls related with the COLs over Northeast China; the upward motion could be caused by the lifting of the large scale dynamic forcing and there was no obvious releasing of latent heating in the upper-middle troposphere. The cold dome in the COLs was quite different both from the warm core in tropical cyclone and from the weaker warm core in Meiyu (Baiu) front low. The calculation of vorticity budget shows that both the horizontal advection term and horizontal divergence term contributed importantly to the maintenance and the strengthening of positive relative vorticity. Finally, the complex dynamical characteristics regarding the COLs are discussed and further investigation is proposed.     

基于投影变换的线阵旋转扫描相机标定方法

针对线阵旋转扫描相机标定数据难以获取及模型解算不稳定的问题,提出了一种基于投影变换的线阵旋转扫描相机标定方法。首先构建了一种新的线阵旋转扫描相机成像模型,该模型可以根据相机旋转平台参数、线阵旋转扫描相机成像平面与其切平面的位置关系将旋转扫描图像投影为框幅式图像;然后根据构建出的成像模型,采用直接线性变换法和非线性优化方法进行相机标定和参数优化。试验结果表明,此方法简单易行,具有较高的精度。     

基于指纹识别的室内定位中的隐私保护

基于指纹识别的定位是最流行的室内定位方法.在离线阶段,服务器测量指纹,比如来自特定空间已知位置的不同接入点（AP）的接收信号强度（RSS）,测量后服务器将测量结果保存在数据库中;在线上阶段,用户同时向服务器发送他当前指纹的测量结果以及位置查询请求,服务器将在数据库中查找与测量结果最接近的指纹.虽然这种方法已经被研究了很久,但现有的工作并没有考虑2个隐私要求：供应商希望保护他们花大代价收集的指纹,用户想要对服务器保留他们的指纹测量结果,以避免泄漏位置.为了实现隐私保护,本文提出一种使用加密技术的指纹匹配方案,这个方案在加密情况下计算由用户测量的指纹与服务器存储的指纹的距离,服务器存储的指纹在这一过程中仍处于密文空间.本文证明了这个方案在进行单点定位时能够很好地保证两者的隐私要求.为了减少高昂的时间开销,本文还提出了一个基于网格划分的改进方案,以及以有限的隐私损失为代价的扩展方案.为加强安全性,最后提出了有效对抗特定攻击的对策,在这种攻击中恶意用户可以通过重复定位获得服务器存储的指纹.使用公众 RSS指纹数据集的扩展实验结果显示本文方案足以在实现实时定位的同时保留定位精度.     

输水隧道地震响应的多物质ALE数值分析

为研究浅埋输水隧道内部流体对隧道地震响应的影响,考虑黏弹性人工边界、土壤的非线性、隧道结构刚度有效率及流-固耦合作用,建立了双线隧道-土体-流体相互耦合作用的力学模型。通过刚度折减试验得到衬砌环环向、径向、轴向刚度,进而引入正交各向异性连续材料作为衬砌材料模型。采用基于任意拉格朗日-欧拉（ALE）描述法的流-固耦合方法,对上海某大直径双线输水隧道在流体作用下的地震响应进行了分析。通过与等效密度法对比,验证耦合模型对于处理输水隧道多物质非线性耦合抗震问题的可行性。计算结果表明,在水平方向地震激励下,无论一致激励或是非一致激励流体对隧道地震变形和内力都有较大影响,但对位移影响较小;对于不同隧道内水量,隧道弯矩均集中于衬砌隧道45°交叉斜线位置;相比于一致激励,非一致激励增强隧道地震位移和变形响应是明显的。     

星载激光光斑影像激光指向变化探测法

地面光斑足印的定位精度高度依赖于激光指向角的测量精度,星载激光光斑质心提取及其变化规律对激光指向角的分析具有重要的意义。本文基于ICESat/GLAS的激光剖面阵列（laser profile array,LPA）影像数据,首先利用灰度一阶矩阵法提取LPA的质心,精度优于0.3个像素,LPA相对定位精度优于0.11个像素。其次利用傅里叶变换和傅里叶级数拟合对LPA质心坐标的变化进行周期探测和建模分析,结果表明,激光光斑影像的质心坐标存在1.83×10^-4 Hz、3.36×10^-4 Hz、5.19×10^-4 Hz和6.71×10^-4 Hz 4个明显的周期变化,拟合结果的相关性R²达到了0.86,拟合精度可达0.4″,优于0.13个像素,得到了较好的结果。可为我国的高分七号和后续的卫星激光测高数据处理提供参考。     

城市1∶500数字化地形测量技术研究——以龙泉驿区茶店镇为例

1∶500地形图是数字城市基础地理数据库的重要组成部分。本文以成都市龙泉驿区茶店镇为例,研究探讨了数字化测图技术在城市地形测量中的具体应用,详细介绍了数字测图的实施细节和过程。     

青海互助一次局地强降水天气多普勒雷达回波分析

利用西宁CINRAD/CD多普勒天气雷达资料及自动站观测数据等从影响降水的主要因子方面探讨了2011年7月2日晚青海互助县一次局地强降水的成因,结果表明:多单体强回波带的活动是造成互助短时强降水的主要原因;速度图上强的辐合和逆风区是预报强降水的关键因子;垂直风廓线图上强烈的垂直风切变是不稳定能量积聚的表现,与强降水联系紧密;垂直累计液态含水量(VIL)和回波顶高也能为强降水预报提供有效信息。     

Observations of Giant Pulses of the Crab Pulsar

The Crab Pulsar was observed at 1540 MHz with the 25m radio telescope at Urumqi with a filterbank de-dispersion backend. A total of 2436 giant pulses with pulse energies larger than 4300 Jy μs were detected in two observing sets. All of these giant pulses are located in the main pulse (MP) and inter pulse (IP) windows of the average profile of the Crab Pulsar. The ratio of the numbers of giant pulses detected in the IP and MP windows is about 0.05. Our results show that, at 1540 MHz, the emission in the IP is contributed by giant and normal pulses, while that in the MP is almost dominated by giant pulses. The distribution of energy of the 2436 giant pulses at 1540 MHz can be described by a power-law with index α=3.13±0.09. The intrinsic threshold of giant pulse energy in the MP window is about 1400 Jy μs at 1540 MHz.