Multi‐model ensemble prediction of terrestrial evapotranspiration across north China using Bayesian model averaging

Using high‐quality dataset from 12 flux towers in north China, the performance of four evapotranspiration (ET) models and the multi‐model ensemble approaches including the simple averaging (SA) and Bayesian model average (BMA) were systematically evaluated in this study. The four models were the single‐layer Penman–Monteith (P–M) model, the two‐layer Shuttleworthe–Wallace (S–W) model, the advection–aridity (A–A) model, and a modified Priestley–Taylor (PT‐JPL). Based on the mean value of Taylor skill (S) and the regression slope between measured and simulated ET values across all sites, the order of overall performance of the individual models from the best to the worst were: S–W (0.88, 0.87), PT‐JPL (0.80, 1.17), P–M (0.63, 1.73) and A–A (0.60, 1.68) [statistics stated as (Taylor skill, regression slope)]. Here, all models used the same values of parameters, LAI and fractional vegetation cover as well as the forcing meteorological data. Thus, the differences in model performance were mainly attributed to errors in model structure. To the ensemble approach, the BMA method has the advantage of generating more skillful and reliable predictions than the SA scheme. However, successful implementation of BMA requires accurate estimates of its parameters, and some degradation in performance were observed when the BMA parameters generated from the training period were used for the validation period. Thus, it is necessary to explore the seasonal variations of the BMA parameters according the different growth stages. Finally, the optimal conditional density function of half‐hourly ET approximated well by the double‐exponential distribution. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国人居环境研究的总体特征及其知识图谱可视化分析

基于CNKI、CSCD文献搜索引擎，以及文献计量可视化工具，采用传统文献研究与知识图谱相结合的方法，对1992—2017年中国人居环境研究的总体特征与知识图谱进行了定量识别和全景式展现。结果发现：1）近25年来，中国人居环境研究发文数量显著增长，《建筑学报》《城市规划》《城市发展研究》等期刊是学者的主要科研阵地；2）研究的优势机构和团队主要集中在中国科学院地理与资源研究所，以及辽宁师范大学、清华大学等其他建筑、规划类和师范类院校；3）研究经费多元化趋势明显，国家级基金是最主要的来源。4）在研究热点方面，人居环境、居住环境、宜居城市、人类环境、可持续发展、居住空间等是学者长期重点关注的热点词汇。5）在研究主题与知识基础方面，相关研究内容广泛，主题尚不集中，城市人居环境、宜居城市、居住环境、农村人居环境、自然适宜性、居住生活满意度、人居环境科学、人口发展是受到关注较多的8个热点主题，其知识基础建立在31篇经典文献之上。6）在具体演进轨迹方面，相关研究的知识结构呈连续发展且彼此联系紧密的态势，发展脉络较为清晰，并具有较强的问题导向性和政策导向性；社会经济发展的阶段性和动态性，问题或政策的学科发展导向，以及学者间的合作交流、学科间的交叉融合、技术方法的革新与应用等是其演进的主要驱动力。     

Estimation of instantaneous peak flows from maximum mean daily flows using the HBV hydrological model

The record length and quality of instantaneous peak flows (IPFs) have a great influence on flood design, but these high resolution flow data are not always available. The primary aim of this study is to compare different strategies to derive frequency distributions of IPFs using the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrologic model. The model is operated on a daily and an hourly time step for 18 catchments in the Aller‐Leine basin, Germany. Subsequently, general extreme value (GEV) distributions are fitted to the simulated annual series of daily and hourly extreme flows. The resulting maximum mean daily flow (MDF) quantiles from daily simulations are transferred into IPF quantiles using a multiple regression model, which enables a direct comparison with the simulated hourly quantiles. As long climate records with a high temporal resolution are not available, the hourly simulations require a disaggregation of the daily rainfall. Additionally, two calibrations strategies are applied: (1) a calibration on flow statistics; (2) a calibration on hydrographs. The results show that: (1) the multiple regression model is capable of predicting IPFs with the simulated MDFs; (2) both daily simulations with post‐correction of flows and hourly simulations with pre‐processing of precipitation enable a reasonable estimation of IPFs; (3) the best results are achieved using disaggregated rainfall for hourly modelling with calibration on flow statistics; and (4) if the IPF observations are not sufficient for model calibration on flow statistics, the transfer of MDFs via multiple regressions is a good alternative for estimating IPFs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of convolutional neural network fused with machine learning modeling framework for geospatial comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility

Natural Hazards - Landslides in mountain settlements are among the most widespread and dangerous geohazards. In this study, we aimed to assess landslide susceptibility using Wenchuan, southwest...     

Permafrost and taliks and their changes on the south and north banks of the Tuotuo River in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under the climate warming北大核心CSCD

The distribution of permafrost and taliks is very complex in the Tuotuo River Basin(TRB), which is located in interior of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Characterizing the spatial distribution and the thermal stability of permafrost and taliks is of great significance to community activities and engineering construction in TRB. Based on the zonation of permafrost and talik distribution around TRB conducted in the 1980s, the soil temperature and its variation process of permafrost and taliks in the south and north banks of the Tuotuo River were analyzed by using the observation data of five boreholes(N1~N5)along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in the north bank and five boreholes(S1~S5)on the first terrace in the south bank. The results showed that, under the climate warming, permafrost and taliks in the north banks experienced significant degradation and warming process. From 2005 to 2020, the permafrost at the N1 borehole has undergone a significant down-draw degradation process, from extremely unstable and high-temperature permafrost to thawed zone. From 2005 to 2013, the annual average ground temperature of the talik at N2 increased at a rate of 0. 3~0. 4 °C·(10a)-1. At Maqutang on the south bank, permafrost prevails from the first-class terrace to the gentle slope of the Kaixinling Mountain, with both through and non-through taliks on the first-class terrace. The spatial distribution and the thermal stability of permafrost and talik in the TRB are further promoted by analyzing the changes in temperatures at boreholes in the basin. However, to meet the requirements of mapping and engineering construction of permafrost and taliks in the TRB, it is still necessary to carry out geological investigation with multiple methods and in-depth research on development mechanism of taliks in the future. © 2022 Nanjing Forestry University. All rights reserved.     

微观负泊松比锚杆静力学特性及其工程应用研究

相比于传统的小变形锚杆支护材料,负泊松比锚杆/索材料具有大伸长量、高强高韧、高恒阻力、吸能等优异力学特性。在宏观负泊松比（NPR）锚杆/索研究和应用基础上,何满潮研发了新一代微观NPR钢材料和微观NPR锚杆。目前微观NPR钢材料的静力学特性研究较少,微观NPR锚杆在城市地下隧道工程的适用性有待于现场应用验证。通过室内静力拉伸试验对微观NPR钢的力学特性进行了研究,结果表明本批次微观NPR钢平均伸长率为34.68%;恒阻力值范围为203.9～ 240.7 kN;拉伸全过程表现为均匀拉伸变形;无屈服平台,破断时无明显颈缩现象。通过理论推导,建立了微观NPR锚杆在微静力拉伸条件下的弹塑性增量本构模型。以某路地铁站风道段为工程背景,介绍了微观NPR锚杆施工工艺,现场测试了极限拉拔力、伸长率及锚杆轴力等方面,结果表明,微观NPR锚杆具有高恒阻力及大伸长量等优势。在围岩大变形隧道开展了支护应用试验,验证了其具有良好的围岩大变形控制效果。     

珠江口盆地珠一坳陷西部中新世早-中期沉积特征及控制因素*

大型海相三角洲分布范围广,沉积动力复杂,其精细层序—沉积构型和演化规律是沉积学领域长期研究的热点。综合岩矿、测井和三维地震资料,充分结合高精度层序地层学和三维地震沉积学分析方法,对古珠江三角洲西侧的恩平地区中新世早-中期沉积特征进行了精细研究,识别出了辫状河道、曲流河道等河控三角洲的主要微相单元,同时也揭示出海岸砂脊等浪控三角洲中发育的典型微相类型。在高精度层序格架约束下,揭示出单一典型层序内古珠江三角洲的演化特征: 低位体系域以河控三角洲为主,发育大型交切状辫状水道;海侵和高位体系域河道规模明显减小,以小规模曲流河道为主,且易于见到海岸砂脊等波浪作用的典型特征。此外,针对恩平地区中新世早-中期沉积相带的系统编图和演化分析,在大约6 ^Ma时间内识别出6次河道大规模改道现象,推测恩平地区沉积演化明显受到自旋回沉积过程的影响。