Land use change assessment in coastal mangrove forests of Iran utilizing satellite imagery and CA–Markov algorithms to monitor and predict future change

Mangrove forest stores large organic carbon stocks in a setting that is highly vulnerable to climate change and direct anthropogenic influences. As such there is a need to elucidate the causes and consequences of land use change on these ecosystems that have high value in terms of ecosystem services. We examine the areal pattern of land types in a coastal region located in southern Iran over a period of 14 years to predict future loss and gain in land types to the year 2025. We applied a CA–Markov model to simulate and predict mangrove forest change. Landsat satellite images from 2000 to 2014 were used to analyze the land cover changes between soil, open water and mangroves. Major changes during this period were observed in soil and water which could be attributed to rising sea level. Furthermore, the mangrove area in the more seaward position was converted to open water due to sea-level rise. A cellular automata model was then used to predict the land cover changes that would occur by the year 2025. Results demonstrated that approximately 21 ha of mangrove area will be converted to open water, while mangroves are projected to expand by approximately 28 ha in landward direction. These changes need to be delineated to better inform precise mitigation and adaptation measures.     

Land use change modeling and the effect of compact city paradigms: integration of GIS-based cellular automata and weights-of-evidence techniques

In recent decades, attaining urban sustainability is the primary goal for urban planners and decision makers. Among various aspects of urban sustainability, environmental protection such as agricultural and forest conservations is very important in tropical countries like Malaysia. In this regard, compact urban development due to high density, rural development containment is known as the most sustainable urban forms. This paper attempts to propose an integrated modeling approach to predict the future land use changes by considering city compactness paradigms. First, the cellular automata (CA) were applied for calculating land use conversion. Next, weights-of-evidence (WoE) which is based on Bayes theory was utilized to calibrate CA model and to support the transitional rule assessment. Several urban-related parameters as well as compact city indicators were utilized to estimate the future land use maps. The results showed how compact development parameters and site characteristics can be combined using the WoE model to predict the probability of land use changes. The modeling approach supports the essential logic of probabilistic methods and indicates that spatial autocorrelation of various land use types and accessibility is the main drivers of urban land use changes.     

Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Hydrogeochemical investigation of geothermal springs in Erzurum,East Anatolia (Turkey)

Geothermal water sources located within The Erzurum province were identified and hot water samples were taken from four different geothermal areas. The results of in situ and hydrogeochemical analyses of these hot water samples were interpreted and the properties of hot water, water–rock associations, estimated reservoir temperature and hot water usage areas were determined. The temperatures of the samples collected from the study area vary between 26.2 and 57.7 °C, while pH values change from 6.09 to 7.33, EC values obtained from in situ measurements are between 1829 and 9480 µS/cm and Eh values are (??190) to (26.3) mV. Total dissolved solids of the hot waters have a range from 838.7 to 3914.1 mg/l. The maximum estimated reservoir temperature is calculated as 250 °C by applying chemical geothermometers. However, considering the actual temperatures of Pasinler, Köprüköy, Horasan and Il?ca thermal waters and wells, the most reliable temperature range depending on the applied geothermometers’ results indicate minimum and maximum reservoir temperatures 85–158.9 °C, respectively, taking in account the errors. According to the isotope analysis, the waters circulating within the geothermal system are of meteoric origin and modern waters. In addition, two samples taken from clayey levels observed in the field were analyzed and the mineralogy of the clays was evaluated.     

Effects of historical and projected land use/cover change on runoff and sediment yield in the Netravati river basin,Western Ghats,India

In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km², respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.     

Heavy metals status,transport mechanisms,sources, and factors affecting their mobility in Chinese agricultural soils

Heavy metals are the focus of much interest because of their environmental persistence, toxicity, and mobility in soils. Some of the Chinese soils have been contaminated with heavy metals due to expansion of mining industries, pesticides usage, and other anthropological activities, which made the agro-ecosystem to become contaminated. The objective of this review is to illuminate the current pollution status, sources of heavy metals, transport mechanisms, and the factors affecting their mobility in Chinese soils. The additional studies in the future will present on source identification and the heavy metal transport characteristics in soil.     

Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite and Gorid andesite from Iran: characterization,uses, and durability

Durability of building stones is an important issue in sustainable development. Crystallization of soluble salts is recognized as one of the most destructive weathering agents of building stones. For this reason, durability of Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite and Gorid andesite from Iran was investigated against sodium sulfate crystallization aging test. Petrographic and physico-mechanical properties and pore size distribution of these stones were examined before and after the aging test. The characteristics of the microcracks were quantified with fluorescence-impregnated thin sections. Durability and physico-mechanical characteristics of Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite are mainly influenced by preferentially oriented preexisting microcracks. Stress induced by salt crystallization led to the widening of preexisting microcracks in Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite, as confirmed by the pore size distributions before and after the aging test. The preexisting microcracks of Gorid andesite were attributed to the mechanical stress induced by contraction of lava during cooling. The number of transcrystalline microcracks was significantly increased after the aging test. The degree of plagioclase microcracking was proportional to its size. Durability of the studied stones depends on initial physico-mechanical properties, pore size distribution, and orientation of microcracks. Initial effective porosity is found to be a good indicator of the stones’ durability. Salt crystallization resulted in an increase in the effective porosity with a parallel decrease in the wave velocities. Surface microroughness parameters increased with the development of salt crystallization-induced microcracking. Gorid andesite showed higher quality and durability than Ghaleh-khargushi rhyodacite.     

Effects of tilling methods on soil penetration resistance,organic carbon and water stable aggregates in a vineyard of semiarid Mediterranean environment

Tillage, especially in semiarid Mediterranean environment, enhances the mineralization process of soil organic matter (SOM) and, in turn, decreases aggregate stability. Furthermore, continuous tillage leads to the formation of plough pan beneath the tilled layer. In the present study, we investigated the effect of an innovative self-propelled machine (spading machine, SM) for shallow tillage on SOM, water stable aggregates (WSA) and soil penetration resistance (PR). Such effects were compared to those of chisel plough (CP), rotary tiller (RT) and no tillage (NT). Each tilling method was applied up to a depth of 15 cm, whereas in NT only a brush cutter was used for weed control. Soil analyses were performed at the start of the experiment (March 2009, T0), in April 2010 (T1), May 2012 (T3), and June 2014 (T5) at both 0–15 and 15–30 cm. Compared to T0, soil PR increased with time in all the treatments and generally followed the order SM?<?RT?<?CP?<?NT. In soil tilled with the SM, soil PR never exceeded 2.5 MPa that was demonstrated to be a critical value for root elongation, and no evidence of the formation of plough pan beneath the tilled layer was observed. SOC as well as water content and WSA were higher in SM compared with CP and RT. In conclusion, the spading machine was proved to be more efficient in lowering the soil PR and in avoiding the formation of the plough pan. Furthermore, SM increased SOC and WSA.     

Accuracy assessment of noise mapping on the main street

Among the sounds constituting a part of our daily lives, the undesired and disturbing ones are named noise. The noises can be defined as the acoustic energy that affects the physiological and psychological welfare of humans due to its direct or indirect effects on the human health. But, the traffic noise, which is one of the disturbing noises having wide dispersion in urban areas, affects the health of a gradually increasing number of people. The number of studies on measurement, dispersion, and mapping of traffic noise in developed and developing countries is gradually increasing. It can be seen that the studies concentrate on mapping based on the city centers and neighborhoods, where the traffic is intense. In this article, unlike the regional noise measurement studies, the transversal cross sections were established with a certain interval according to the land status along the main street, and the noise measurement points were determined using the global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The daily mean noise levels (L_den) were calculated by performing the measurements at daytime, evening, and nighttime. Using ArcGIS 10.4 software, the accuracy of noise maps created via inverse distance weighting (IDW), radial basis function (RBF), and ordinary kriging (OK) geostatistical analysis interpolation methods and the dispersion effect of traffic noise were compared. According to the visual method and error corrections, it was found that the best noise map was obtained using the RBF method. It is believed that the map provides accurate and reliable results because of the flat land surface, higher noise values measured on the road region, decrease in the noise at the points farther from the road region, and soft transitions between the noise values depending on the distance from the road. In order to take measures in order to decrease or eliminate noise on the main street, the local administrators and decision-makers can make use of these maps, the accuracy of which has been confirmed.