"2005-05-31"暴雨天气过程多普勒雷达回波分析

通过对2005年5月31日贵州省一次强降水的雷达回波强度、速度的分析,发现此次暴雨过程具有较为典型的冷锋过境的雷达回波特征,暴雨落区与雷达回波强度、移速有关,暴雨出现在逆风区附近.     

Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

一个海气耦合模式对东亚夏季气候预测潜力的评估

利用一个具有较高分辨率的海气耦合模式SINTEX-F(Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change coupled GCM)的多年回报结果,评估了该海气耦合模式对东亚区域,尤其是中国地区气候异常的预测潜力.与观测实况的比较结果表明:SINTEX-F模式对夏季降水、500 hPa高度场和地表气温都有一定的预测技巧,但是相比而言降水与高度场的回报技巧要高于地表气温;而且耦合模式对东亚地区气候异常的主要空间分布和年际变化特征也有较好的预测潜力,对500 hPa高度场效果较好;对降水异常的年际变化也有一定的预测潜力,尤其是我国中部地区效果较好,但是模式预测的降水异常的幅值较观测相对偏弱;此外对我国西部的极端气候也有一定的预测潜力.     

基于混沌吸引子的复杂农业系统预测模型研究

农业生产是自然再生产和经济再生产有机结合的过程，农业系统是高度耦合了自然生态、社会经济系统等的复杂大系统，具有非线性和耗散性特征。复杂农业系统要素非线性作用所表现的系统行为形成农业系统的整个演化轨迹。从长期演化来看，由于系统内部自组织作用、系统协同和外部随机扰动的作用使得农业系统出现混沌现象，故复杂系统具有长期不可预测性。本文根据复杂农业系统的预测规范，重构复杂农业系统相空间，建立了基于“混沌吸引子”的非线性混沌动力学预测模型，并以成都的相关数据进行分析验证。     

中国东部夏季降水与同期东亚副热带急流年代际异常的关系

利用中国738个台站的降水观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料, 分析了我国降水和200 hPa东亚副热带西风急流轴的年代际变化特征, 揭示了东亚副热带西风急流位置的南北移动与我国长江流域和华北降水异常之间的联系。结果表明, 我国东部地区夏季（7、 8月）降水异常主要表现为长江中下游地区多（少）雨, 华北及华南地区少（多）雨, 20世纪70年代末80年代初是这种异常分布型发生转折的时间。与此同时, 东亚高空副热带急流轴位置从70年代末开始逐渐偏南, 急流轴位置的变动将引起对流层低层水汽辐合区和高层散度分布以及垂直环流相应的变化, 进而引起降水区域的变化。相关分析发现, 当急流位置偏南时, 25°~35°N西风增强, 42°~50°N西风减弱, 华北夏季降水减少, 长江中下游地区夏季降水增多; 反之, 当急流位置偏北时, 华北夏季降水增多, 长江中下游地区夏季降水减少。与70年代末开始的我国东部地区急流轴位置逐渐南移相对应, 华北地区夏季降水呈现逐渐减少、 长江中下游地区夏季降水呈现逐渐增多的变化趋势。分析低层水汽通量和高层的散度分布以及垂直环流的差异发现, 1980年以来华北地区对流层中低层水汽通量辐合减弱, 水汽供应减少, 垂直上升运动减弱, 造成了华北夏季降水减少, 而长江中下游地区水汽通量辐合增加, 水汽供应增多, 垂直上升运动增强, 导致该地区降水增加。     

Titanium Isotope Analysis of Igneous Reference Materials using a Double-spike MC-ICP-MS Method

Ti separation was achieved by ion-exchange chromatography using Bio-Rad AG 1-X8 anion-exchange and DGA resins. For high-Fe/Ti and high-Mg/Ti igneous samples, a three-column procedure was required, whereas a two-column procedure was used for low-Fe/Ti and low-Mg/Ti igneous samples. The Ti isotopes were analysed by MC-ICP-MS, and instrumental mass bias was corrected using a 47Ti-49Ti double-spike technique. The 47Ti-49Ti double-spike and SRM 3162a were calibrated using SRM 979-Cr, certificated value 53Cr/52Crtrue = 0.11339. Isobaric interference was evaluated by analysing Alfa-Ti doped with Na, Mg, Ca, and Mo, and results indicate that high concentrations of Na and Mg have no significant effect on Ti isotope analyses; however, Ca and Mo interferences lead to erroneous δ49/47Ti values when Ca/Ti and Mo/Ti ratios exceed 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. Titanium isotopic compositions were determined for 12 igneous reference materials, BCR-2, BHVO-2, GBW07105, AGV-1, AGV-2, W-2, GBW07123, GBW07126, GBW07127, GBW07101, JP-1, and DTS-2b. Samples yield δ49/47Ti (‰) of ?0.035 ± 0.022, ?0.038 ± 0.031, 0.031 ± 0.022, 0.059 ± 0.038, 0.044 ± 0.037, 0.000 ± 0.015, 0.154 ± 0.044, ?0.044 ± 0.018, 0.010 ± 0.022, 0.064 ± 0.043, 0.169 ± 0.034, and ?0.047 ± 0.025 (relative to OL-Ti, ±2SD), respectively; of which isotopic compositions of DTS-2b, JP-1, GBW07101, GBW07105, GBW07123, GBW07126, and GBW07127 are reported for the first time. Standard Alfa-Ti was analysed repeatedly over a ten-month period, indicating a reproducibility of ±0.047 (2SD) for δ49/47Ti, similar to the precisions obtained for geochemical reference materials.     

极端干旱沙漠中无沙埋干扰时几种固沙植物栽植试验研究

沙埋干扰是沙漠地区乡土植物生存繁殖的必要条件。在塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地,无沙埋干扰地段大多是高矿化度地下水埋深较浅的地段,这些地段盐渍化较重。7a定点观测和试验表明,塔里木沙漠公路沿线丘间地栽植固沙植物逐渐死亡的主要因素不是沙层水分和沙层盐分,而是高矿化度地下水埋深太浅(0.8~1.0 m),即这类地段植物死亡的原因主要是由于植物长期吸收高矿化度地下水使得体内盐分积聚过多无法调节而造成的。因此,在干旱区高矿化度地下水埋深太浅的地段,无沙埋干扰时建立固沙植被应谨慎。     

Textural and Geochemical Characteristics of Proglacial Sediments: A Case Study in the Foreland of the Nelson Ice Cap, Antarctica

This paper presents a detailed study on the textural and geochemical characteristics of the proglacial sediments near the edge of modern Nelson Ice Cap, Antarctica. The grain size distributions of the proglacial sediments are characteristic of glacigenic deposits, but very different from those of aeolian and lacustrine sediments. Moreover, the grain size distributions of the proglacial sediments are fractal with a dimension of about 2.9, and the fractal dimensions can be used as another summary statistical parameter for quantifying the relative amounts of coarse and fine materials. Correlations between the absolute element abundances of the proglacial sediments are very weak due to mineral partitioning and other effects of glacial processes, but correlations between the element/Rb ratios are statistically significant. This finding indicates that element/Rb ratios can be used to reduce or eliminate the effects of glacial processes, evaluate geochemical data and determine the sediment provenance in the for     

珠江口盆地珠三坳陷文昌组有机质碳同位素异常成因

部分中国近海湖盆和大西洋裂谷盆地发现了腐泥型有机质碳同位素偏重的现象,并伴随异常高总有机碳含量和生烃潜力。本文依据泥岩有机碳测试、孢粉分析、主微量元素、泥岩和原油碳同位素及饱和烃色质色谱资料,并结合现代湖泊盘星藻发育特征,从有机质来源、古环境条件和有机质保存改造三个方面探讨了珠江口盆地珠三坳陷古近系文昌组碳同位素正偏移的成因机制。珠三坳陷文昌组碳同位素异常与气候、古生产力、古水深和藻类勃发等古环境因素有关。然而,从三级层序尺度看,古水深可能是一个不可忽视的重要因素：指示水深的Rb/K比值随深度加深而增加,与碳同位素和TOC含量变化趋势一致。同时现代湖泊研究也证实了盘星藻分布于不同水深范围,因此“深水型盘星藻”的繁盛很可能是珠三坳陷文昌组二段烃源岩碳同位素偏重的根本原因。     

煤层气在煤储层中的扩散及其影响因素

煤层气在煤储层中的扩散是指从煤基质孔隙表面上解吸的煤层气运移到割理系统的主要过程。发生扩散的前提条件是气体浓度差的出现，衡量扩散能力大小的重要参数是扩散系数。前者为由解吸速度、解吸气量和煤层气产量、井孔压力降等因素控制的动态参数，而后者为主要受扩散物质性质、扩散介质特征、扩散系统的温度、压力和孔隙结构形态等因素影响的静态参数。煤层气在煤储层中的扩散量与煤层气浓度差和扩散系数呈正比关系。