Changes of precipitation extremes over South Korea projected by the 5 RCMs under RCP scenarios

The change of extreme precipitation is assessed with the HadGEM2-AO - 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) chain, which is a national downscaling project undertaken cooperatively by several South Korean institutes aimed at producing regional climate change projection with fine resolution (12.5 km) around the Korean Peninsula. The downscaling domain, resolution and lateral boundary conditions are held the same among the 5 RCMs to minimize the uncertainties from model configuration. Climatological changes reveal a statistically significant increase in the mid-21st century (2046- 2070; Fut1) and the late-21st century (2076-2100; Fut2) precipitation properties related to extreme precipitation, such as precipitation intensity and average of upper 5 percentile daily precipitation, with respect to the reference period (1981-2005). Changes depending on the intensity categories also present a clear trend of decreasing light rain and increasing heavy rain. In accordance with these results, the change of 1-in-50 year maximum precipitation intensity over South Korea is estimated by the GEV method. The result suggests that the 50-year return value (RV50) will change from -32.69% to 72.7% and from -31.6% to 96.32% in Fut1 and from -31.97% to 86.25% and from -19.45% to 134.88% in Fut2 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, at the 90% confidence level. This study suggests that multi-RCMs can be used to reduce uncertainties and assess the future change of extreme precipitation more reliably. Moreover, future projection of the regional climate change contains uncertainties evoked from not only driving GCM but also RCM. Therefore, multi-GCM and multi-RCM studies are expected to provide more robust projection.     

峨眉山大火成岩省太和花岗岩的成因及构造意义

攀西地区的太和花岗质岩体和赋存超大型钒钛磁铁矿矿床的辉长岩体在空间上共生,成因上均与峨眉山地幔柱头的上升密切相关.太和花岗质岩体主要由超碱质花岗岩和石英正长岩及少量正长岩组成;富含高场强元素并具高Ga/Al值(3.74～5.63),显示典型A型花岗岩的特征.花岗岩、正长岩和辉长岩的Nb/Ta和Zr/Hf值与洋岛玄武岩(OIB)的相应比值近似.花岗质岩石具较低的87Sr/86Sr初始值(0.7025～0.7049)和正的εNd(t)值(1.9～3.5),与辉长岩的值相近[(87Sr/86Sr)i =0.7049～0.7052; εNd(t) =2.4～3.3].太和花岗质岩体的εNd(t)为正值,显示地幔柱来源的底侵玄武质岩浆对其形成起主要作用.辉长质和花岗质岩石具相似的钕同位素组成,表明其母岩浆来自于同一源区.我们认为太和花岗质侵入体主要由底侵于下地壳的玄武质岩浆分异出的花岗质熔体侵位及随后经结晶分异而形成.因此,晚古生代时幔源岩浆底侵造成的地壳增生在峨眉山大火成岩省中表现极为显著.     

涡北河网区三维地震采集技术

涡北勘探区属于河网地带,难以进行正常的地震施工。为此,本文提出了一种以规则束状观测为基础和特殊观测系统相结合的数据采集方法。该方法适应了这种复杂的地表条件,获得了"空白区"的地震资料,为今后类似地表条件地区的三维地震勘探提供了经验。      

Seasonal change in body length of important small copepods and relationship with environmental factors in Jiaozhou Bay,China

Differences among species in prosome length and in species’ response to environmental factors do exist. Therefore, it is useful to examine prosome length for different copepod species in variable environments. Seasonal variations in prosome length of four small copepods and their copepodite stages in the Jiaozhou Bay were compared and the relative influence of temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll concentration were examined. Two peaks were found in the mean prosome length of Paracalanus parvus (in early winter and May). For Acartia bifilosa, the maximum values of all copepodites occurred mainly from February to April, and decreased to the bottom in July. Prosome length of Acartia pacifica peaked when it first appeared in June, then reached to the minimum in July. Parvocalanus crassirostris only appeared from late summer to autumn and the mean prosome length showed no clear changes. Correlations of adult prosome length with environmental factors were evaluated. For the four species, temperature was negatively correlated to prosome length except for P. crassirostris. But the different species varied markedly in their responds to temperature. A. bifilosa showed a more definite trend of size variation with temperature than P. parvus and A. pacifica. Correlations of prosome length with salinity were significantly positive for almost all the small copepods. The relationship between chlorophyll concentration and prosome length was complicated for these copepods, but for P. parvus, chlorophyll concentration was also an important affecting factor. Furthermore, investigation needs to be done on food quality for some copepod. These results are essential to estimate the biomass and the production, and to understand these small copepods’ population dynamics in this human-affected bay.     

基于实测波浪的单桩式海上风电基础波浪力计算研究

基于实测波面的波浪力获取作为结构动力响应分析以及数字孪生模型建立的必备环节,对海上风电数字化运维至关重要。为了满足更大的装机容量需求,单桩式海上风电基础趋于大型化,其尺度因子D/L也随之增大;并且实际海域均为非规则波,以尺度因子划分波浪力计算理论的方法对非规则波的适用性尚不明确。通过建立数值水槽,依据实际工况对不规则波与桩基的作用进行数值模拟,得到入射波浪场与桩基所受波浪力,在此基础上,基于入射波浪场分别采用Morison方程以及绕射理论求解波浪力并将之与数值模拟结果进行对比,分析了不同波浪力计算理论关于尺度因子的适用性,同时探究了波浪要素对计算精度的影响。结果表明：Morison方程在波高较大时精度下降;相对于Morison方程,绕射理论在该尺度下的精度更高。最后,通过分析实测数据进一步探讨了典型工况下的波浪力特征,以期通过实测波面计算波浪力的方法为实际服役风机波浪力计算提供技术支持。     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.     

Recent evolution of Lake Arreo,northern Spain: influences of land use change and climate

We present a high-resolution, multiproxy reconstruction of the depositional history of Lake Arreo, northern Spain, for the last 60 years. We conducted sedimentological, geochemical and diatom analyses in short cores and made a detailed comparison with regional instrumental climate data (1952–2007), limnological monitoring of the lake (1992–2008) and recent land use changes that affect the lake catchment. Chronology is based on “floating” discontinuous varve counts and ¹³⁷Cs and ¹⁴C dates. Four periods were identified in the Lake Arreo recent history: (1) prior to 1963, varved facies intercalated with fine turbidite deposits, and diatom assemblages dominated by Cyclotella taxa indicate predominantly meromictic conditions, (2) from 1964 to 1978, permanent anoxia persisted in bottom waters, as shown by similar facies and diatom assemblages as before, though detrital layers were coarser, (3) from 1979 to 1994, sediment delivery to the lake increased and laminated, clastic facies were deposited, and (4) from 1995 to 2008, dominance of massive facies and an increase in Fragilaria tenera and Achnanthes minutissima reflect relatively lower lake levels, less frequent bottom anoxia with more frequent water column mixing, similar to modern conditions. The period 1952–1979 was a time of meromixis and varved facies deposition, and was characterized by higher rainfall and less intense agricultural pressure in the watershed. There were two short humid periods (1992–1993 and 1996–1998) when monitoring data show more anoxic weeks per year and relatively higher lake levels. Increased cultivation of small landholdings in 1963, and particularly after 1979, caused a large increase in sediment delivery to the lake. The inferred lake evolution is in agreement with monitoring data that suggest a transition from dominantly meromictic conditions prior to 1993–1994 to a predominantly monomictic pattern of circulation since then, particularly after 2000. The synergistic effects of intensive water extraction for irrigation and lower rainfall since 1979, and particularly since 1994, brought the long period of meromictic conditions in Lake Arreo to an end. Water balance and sediment delivery to the lake are dominant factors that control the limnological and mixing conditions in Lake Arreo and they must be considered in management and restoration plans.     

High-precision repeat-groundtrack orbit design and maintenance for Earth observation missions

The focus of this paper is the design and station keeping of repeat-groundtrack orbits for Sun-synchronous satellites. A method to compute the semimajor axis of the orbit is presented together with a station-keeping strategy to compensate for the perturbation due to the atmospheric drag. The results show that the nodal period converges gradually with the increase of the order used in the zonal perturbations up to \(J_{15}\). A differential correction algorithm is performed to obtain the nominal semimajor axis of the reference orbit from the inputs of the desired nodal period, eccentricity, inclination and argument of perigee. To keep the satellite in the proximity of the repeat-groundtrack condition, a practical orbit maintenance strategy is proposed in the presence of errors in the orbital measurements and control, as well as in the estimation of the semimajor axis decay rate. The performance of the maintenance strategy is assessed via the Monte Carlo simulation and the validation in a high fidelity model. Numerical simulations substantiate the validity of proposed mean-elements-based orbit maintenance strategy for repeat-groundtrack orbits.     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

High-efficiency calculation method for watershed rainfall-runoff routing using one-dimensional dynamic wave equations

Efficiency in solving the Saint-Venant equations for watershed rainfall-runoff routing is important in flood hydrology. This paper presents a high-efficiency numerical solution of one-dimensional dynamic wave equations (HEDWE) for watershed rainfall-runoff routing, in which the full momentum equation is written as a quadratic equation with only one unknown variable Q, water depth is derived from the continuity equation using the two-step predictor-corrector method, and the discrete scheme is the explicit upwind scheme. The results of numerical tests showed the HEDWE approach has several major advantages. 1) It is a stable numerical method, even for an initially dry area. 2) Its computational efficiency is higher than 4.76E+05 times/s. 3) It can be used for overland flow, river flow, and combinations thereof. The primary disadvantages of the HEDWE approach are its unsuitability for rapidly varying flow, such as dam-break floods.